2019 has set the stage for the next decade. Just as the 2000s acted as a prologue for events of the 2010s, we now are about to enter the next chapter of the story we call the twenty-first century. Before we end this year, it is worth reflecting on the crucial events that marked it.
The past twelve months have been far from boring. The amount that has happened makes 2019 one of the most pivotal years in recent history. With Donald Trump becoming the third US president to be impeached, the UK finally passing a deal to leave the EU, civil unrest sprinkled throughout the world, and much more, 2019 has set 2020 up to be a year of much excitement.
US politics | Trump impeached while Democrats vie for their party’s nomination
On 18 December, Donald Trump became the third US President to get impeached by the House of Representatives. With 230 Democrats in the House voting for his impeachment, Trump enters 2020 with a looming trial in the Senate. The charges, surrounding his involvement in foreign interference in the next presidential election by attaining information to discredit Joe Biden, has further led into question Trump’s ethics. Yet, this may also act to invigorate his base and increase voter turnout.
At the start of the year, many predicted Trump would be impeached but on the basis of alleged Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election. While there remained ambiguity as to whether Trump could be charged, the House did not pursue his impeachment based on the findings of an investigation by Special Counsel Robert Mueller. While the findings of the Mueller Report damaged Trump in the short-term, it largely disappeared from the news-cycle within a few weeks.
The Democrats on the other hand will have a divisive year with another election and the primary contest. While Trump is preparing for his re-election bid, the remaining candidates, of which there are 15, need to be careful if they do not want to divide Democrats before the election. As the months have progressed, Joe Biden remains the leading candidate with Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders as his main rivals. However, as we have learnt from the campaigns of Beto O’Rourke and Kamala Harris (both of who have dropped out), polls can change very quickly and high-polling candidates can swiftly lose their leads.
Brexit | Light at the end of the tunnel
2019 has been a bigger year than 2018 was in British politics. The first-half of the year saw Theresa May try and fail on three occasions to pass her Brexit deal. As a result, the date of withdrawal was pushed from 31 March to 31 October. These failures were not small with the first meaningful vote on May’s deal having 432 members of the House of Commons vote against it. By the third vote, this was down to 344 but May was still short roughly 40 votes from passing her deal.
The stagnation and delays led to May becoming a casualty of Brexit, announcing her resignation in May and leaving office in late July. With her resignation came the Conservative leadership election which saw Boris Johnson elected leader, subsequently becoming PM. Straight off the bat his tenure was controversial, with multiple cabinet ministers resigning or being dismissed. Most controversial was his appointment of Dominic Cummings, the architect behind Vote Leave, as his Chief Political Adviser.
Many in his own party wrote his leadership off and believed he couldn’t achieve a deal by the deadline. It didn’t help his cause that he prorogued parliament for 5 weeks, the longest prorogation in centuries. Found to be illegal, he returned to Parliament on 17 October with a new deal. While the new deal was passed by MPs, the accompanying programme was not passed, meaning the deal would not be implemented by 31 October.
Instead of leaving the EU on 31 October, the House of Commons voted to go to election on 12 December. The Labour Party suffered their worst result since 1935 while Johnson attained an 80-seat majority. Eight days later, the withdrawal bill was passed meaning the UK will leave by 31 January 2020. So as we enter the New Year, the UK will finally be preparing to depart the EU after a 10 month extension and much uncertainty. Yet, they still need to negotiate a trade deal and the framework for their future relationship with the EU.
Hong Kong | Protests continue as divisions worsen
Beginning in March, protests sparked in Hong Kong when Secretary of Security John Lee introduced the Fugitive Offenders and Mutual Legal Assistance in Criminal Matters Legislation (Amendment) Bill to the Legislative Council. In short, this bill allowed for the transfer of fugitives from Hong Kong to Mainland China, meaning they wouldn’t be prosecuted under Hong Kong law but that of the Mainland.
Protests were part of wider fears that Beijing was trying to erode the Hong Kong legal system and get around ‘one state two systems’ – the central tenet of the Sino-Anglo Joint Declaration. Protesters pledged to continue fighting until the bill was withdrawn by Chief Executive Carrie Lam. However, Lam only ‘suspended’ the proposed bill on 15 June. This led to fiercer protests for the bill’s withdrawal with over 6,000 people arrested and nearly 3,000 injured.
The bill was officially withdrawn on 23 October, followed by an electoral landslide for pro-democracy candidates at the 24 November District Council elections. Protests persist with calls for Hong Kong to become independent and a member of the Commonwealth of Nations. There have even been protests in support of the Uighurs of northwest China and further demands from Beijing. As we enter 2020, there seems to be no quieting of the upheaval in this small, but economically wealthy, special administrative region.
Christchurch shooting | A dark day for New Zealand
On the afternoon of 15 March, 51 people were killed in twin mosque shootings in Christchurch, New Zealand. The assailant was Brenton Harrison Tarrant, alleged in the media to be a white supremacist and part of the alt-right. He was subsequently charged with the murder of all 51 victims and 40 attempts of murder. He pleaded not-guilty to all counts with a trial to be held in mid-2020.
The protests were “one of New Zealand’s darkest days” according to Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern. In the aftermath, Ardern established a royal commission into the actions of the security agencies and introduced new gun laws. Global responses also included a summit held in Paris in May by President Macron at which an accord was signed by multiple countries and tech companies which called on major technology companies to step up efforts to combat violent extremism.
The attacks formed part the alt-right terror attacks which have increased exponentially since 2015. Some Islamist groups blamed the Israeli foreign intelligence agency while there were beliefs that the Sri Lankan Easter bombings of April were retaliation for the attacks. Regardless, the attack serves as a stain on New Zealand’s modern history and a reminder of the divisive state of affairs which have further deteriorated in the 2010s.
Australian Federal Election | Polls are in need of re-calibration
When we entered 2019, Scott Morrison was new to office and it was predicted Labor would win the next election. Bill Shorten was poised to become Prime Minister and the Coalition was set to be decimated. However, the polls were wrong and Scott Morrison increased the Coalition’s seat share, attaining a majority in the House of Representatives. No one predicted this would be the result, with the closest pollsters hypothesising a hung parliament.
But why did Labor lose the ‘unlosable’ election? Based on post-election studies, they haemorrhaged traditional blue-collar voters while being too radical so to win over swing voters. Additionally, Shorten was one of the most unlikable opposition leaders in comparison to Morrison who was down-to-earth and was mostly unscathed from the leadership spill of 2018.
Shorten was replaced by Anthony Albanese who is also behind Morrison in polls for preferred prime minister. The Coalition has also maintained its lead in the polls, ahead of Labor by 4% in two-party preferred polls. Entering the 2020s, it seems we are to leave behind the era of instability in the Lodge which saw a revolving door of prime ministers.
Brazilian politics | The Amazon continues to burn
At the beginning of the year, Jair Bolsonaro took over as President of Brazil. The vehement conservative assumed office at the same time as clearings and wildfires in the Amazon intensified. With 80,000 fires set this year alone, an area the size of Israel was destroyed. This was the most fires in the decade, with the area used to graze cattle and grow crops for Brazil’s population.
Bolsonaro was blamed by the international community for permitting the burnings. The strongest of his critics was President Macron who tweeted: “Our house is burning. Literally.” Further condemnation led to the establishment of a satellite monitoring service by South American nations, including Brazil. The Brazilian government also invoked a 60-day ban of forest fires, sent 44,000 solders to fight fires and accepted aid from multiple foreign governments. Yet, the Brazilian government is still trying to resist calls for further action, with Economy Minister Paulo Guedes stating that other countries should pay Brazil for the oxygen the Amazon produces.
At the current rate of deforestation, the Amazon will not produce enough rainfall to sustain itself within 20 to 30 years. Going into the 2020s, we will continue to see destruction at mass levels unless action is taken. If the words of Guedes are taken on face value, then there is little hope.
Middle East | US ends support for Syrian Kurds
In 2014, the United States started to assist Syrian Kurds in an attempt to counter the power of Islamic State in Northern Syria. During his presidential bid, Donald Trump did not hide his disdain for the presence of US troops in the region. This was brought home in December 2018 when Trump announced their withdrawal, leading to the resignation of Defense Secretary James Mattis over his disagreement with the plan.
The withdrawal of troops was finalised on 7 October, after a call with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan when Trump withdrew US Special Forces. This led to the Turkish invasion of Syria and the Kurds seeking support from Bashir al-Assad. While Trump sought to end military involvement in Northern Syria, US troops have resumed operations against Islamic State forces in the region.
Other major events
Other major events included:
- Juan Guaido declared himself Acting President of Venezuela in January after Nicolas Maduro refused to step down.
- Macedonia changed its name to ‘North Macedonia’ in February, normalising relations with Greece.
- Notre Dame was devastated by fire on 15 April 2019, with only a 50% chance of survival.
- Emperor Akhito abdicated the Chrysanthemum throne, being succeeded by his son Naruhito in May.
- In July, Donald Trump became the first incumbent US President to walk into North Korea.
- Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, leader of Islamic State, was killed by US Special Forces in October.
- Protests occurred in Chile leading to a referendum being set for April 2020 and a state of emergency being declared.
- Evo Morales resigned the Presidency of Bolivia in November and fled to Mexico.
- German Defence Minister Ursula von der Leyen was selected to become President of the European Commission, Belgian PM Charles Michel became President of the European Council, and Christine Lagarde was appointed President of the European Central Bank.
What to look forward to in 2020
As we move into 2020, the world’s media will be focused on the US Presidential Election and Donald Trump’s re-election bid. Markedly different from 2016, there is no presumptive Democrat candidate while Trump’s upset victory against Clinton has pollsters still questioning themselves. The UK may leave the EU by the end of January but negotiations regarding the future relationship and trade deal will continue to persist. Hong Kong protests continue as does civil unrest in other regions of the world.
2019, and by extension the 2010s, has set the scene for the next decade. Traditional political allegiances are being tested and alliances seem as if they are teetering. Many fear that the instability of the current world order but we must realise that we always live in a state of flux with constant changes in all facets of life. This is just the natural evolution of the geopolitical landscape – nothing stays the same forever and we must understand that.
On behalf of the team at Pivot, we wish you a Happy New Year and hope 2020 is bright and prosperous for you and your loved ones.
Note from the Editor-In-Chief
In my last article as Editor-In-Chief, I want to thank all the readers of Pivot that helped ensure our growth since our establishment in May 2018. I also express my gratitude to all the writers and editors of Pivot over the past year-and-a-half who have assisted in our success. Since being formed, we have reached over 10,000 readers in 70 countries and fostered our own brand and social media presence. This is an incredible feat for a student-led publication with no budget. In moving forward, I wish Sonali and Filip the best of luck in the management of Pivot and I know they will do excellently.
It has been an amazing journey and fantastic to see our little publication tackle large issues and allow students to express their own opinions. It is important to have open communication on problems that concern us all. Only through discussion can we truly understand our respective perspectives and form a consensus. Without this, we will become a further divided society, ignorant towards the problems faced by others and the reasons they think the way they do. Writing helps facilitate such discussion and Pivot will continue to welcome opinions from a cross-section of the community to assist in this.
If you haven’t written for Pivot yet, make it a New Year’s resolution to put pen to paper, or fingers to keyboard, and send us an article. Don’t be scared to write and give your opinion. Express your ideas and help to enlighten the world as only through this can we progress. If we never shared our thoughts and opinions, where would society be now?
Thank you, Happy New Year, and I look forward to Pivot’s continued success in 2020 and beyond.
Ryan Attard
Outgoing Editor-In-Chief
