Argentina have just elected former Chief of the Cabinet Alberto Fernandez as its president, succeeding the defeated Mauricio Macri. With 48.1% of the vote, in other presidential systems Fernandez would head to a run-off ballot along with Macri who got 40.4%. However, in Argentina, this is a clear election victory due to their unique voting system.
Argentina’s Ballotage System
Commencing in 1994, Argentina’s electoral system means that a candidate does not need a majority in the first round to win outright. Instead, candidates need to either get at least 45% of the vote or between 40% and 45% of the vote with a lead of at least 10% of the runner-up. If this doesn’t occur, a ballotage will occur – a run-off election between the highest two candidates. Ballotage was only required in 2015 with the election of President Macri. It would have been needed in 2003 with the election of Nestor Kirchner had Carlos Menem not withdrawn.
Both Fernandez and Macri scored highly with over 40% of the vote. But Fernandez’s 48% gives him a safe victory which will see him securely placed at the Casa Rosada, the Presidential Executive Office, with no need for a ballotage.
Rise of the Peronist Left
Fernandez’s election was a sign that the Argentinian people are deeply unsatisfied with the current state of economy which Macri pledged to fix in 2015.With an unemployment rate of approximately 10%, one-third of the country living in poverty, and inflation at over 50%, it seems Argentina has gone backwards. This was exemplified on the eve of the election, with Argentines limited to only making $200 a month in foreign exchange purchases, down from the $10,000 beforehand. Argentina now is struggling to repay over $100 billion of foreign debt, putting it on the brink of its ninth debt default.
As a result many have turned away from the centre-right policies of Macri and back to the Peronist Left which have controlled Argentina for 24 of the last 30 years. The recession in Argentina, austerity, and slow movement in reducing the high deficit also contributed to many turning to the moderate Fernandez, and a broader sign that South America is turning to the left.
Return of Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner
The biggest headline is the return of former president Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner as Vice President. Holding the presidency from 2007 until 2015, Kirchner played a large part in this election campaign. Having been vilified by opponents for her presidency and involved in multiple court cases which nearly saw her barred from public office, her return is truly a great comeback.
When she left office, she was condemned for the poor state of the Argentine economy and denounced as an authoritarian figure. Her policies were contrasted by those of her successor who she greatly despised. However, many underestimated the power the modern-day Eva Peron had on the imagination of Argentinians. This was shaped by social aid programs and a charisma unrivalled by Macri and many other politicians.
She also symbolises a deep contrast to Macri’s inherent sexism. Namely, he said during the campaign that Kirchner’s economic policies were like “handing over the administration of the house to your wife, and your wife, instead of paying the bills, uses the credit card, and uses it and uses it, until one day they come to mortgage your house.” This has just infuriated female voters who further viewed Macri as disrespectful to females.
Her Vice Presidency is strategic. By allowing Fernandez to have a clear path to the Justicialist Party nomination, Kirchner gave Macri the challenge of facing a moderate Peronist instead of a somewhat tainted, albeit popular, former president who is facing 11 corruption charges. Nevertheless, she seems to be a major power-base that will be a significant factor in the policies of the Fernandez Administration over the next four years.
What next
Fernandez has already been to Casa Rosada to meet with Macri to discuss the transition of power set to take place on 10 December. When he takes office, Fernandez will have to negotiate Argentina’s current debt obligations with the IMF and tackle various economic issues. However, the major story should be Kirchner;s return to executive office while embroiled in various corruption cases and only four years since the conclusion of her own presidency.
