HONG KONG’S RECKONING | ELECTION ANALYSIS

The landslide majority of the Pro-Democracy camp is hard to write off as anything other than a resounding affirmation of public support. Last Sunday saw the District Councils of Hong Kong, previously loyal to Beijing, upended by an unorthodox election cycle that propelled Pro-Democrats to local power within the autonomous city. This result comes at the head of six months of civil unrest within Hong Kong as protesters continue to challenge the Pro-Beijing establishment in what has become the largest assertion of autonomy in recent history. With the Pro-Beijing camp in a complete rout, this result opens up new speculation over the future of Hong Kong. 


THE BROAD SCOPE – A NEW FOUND STRENGTH

A record three million people turned out to vote, alongside 386,000 new voters who joined the electoral ranks this election cycle. Indeed, all this totalled 71% of those registered to vote. Hopes were evaporated that a ‘silent majority’ would emerge to support pro-Beijing parties in frustration with the violence and turmoil that plagued the city for the past six months. In fact, the demographic most likely to meet this characterisation, the middle class would turn out at 80% this cycle, this delivered in roads for Pan-Democracy parties to penetrate areas outside of the inner-city area. This adds up to offer an undeniable referendum of Hong-Konger attitudes with the current state of affairs.

With the official results finalised, it is obvious that Pro-Democrats have performed a clean sweep. A plethora of pro-democratic parties ran, but combined they achieved 57% of the popular vote. Additionally, the unheard of 17% swing with 388 elected in total granted pan-democrats control over all but one of the eighteen District Councils. Pro-Beijing forces suffered a serious rout, only being able to attain 42% of the popular vote and being reduced to 62 seats (down from 498). The result shows that voters didn’t blame protesters for the mass disruptions to the city, the movement has achieved widespread support and a rejection of the pro-Beijing establishment. 


IMPACT BEYOND IMAGERY

Usually the District Councils generate little interest amount the politically devout in Hong Kong as they normally contend with local issues. Instead, this time around Pro-Democrats successfully campaigned to turn it into a referendum on the government’s handling of the ongoing protests. Thus, this has reaffirmed hopes for the Hong Kong establishment to consider the demands touted by protesters for months, specifically ‘5 demands’ that included a review of police behaviour during the protest and free elections to the Legislative Council of Hong Kong (LegCo). 

Beyond the symbolism, this result impacts higher levels of the Hong Kong politics, six of the seventy seats in the LegCo are reserved for District Councillors, granting the Pro-Democrat camp a stronger caucus going into the LegCo election next year. Additionally, 10% of the election committee of 1,200 (117/1,200) who decide the position of Chief Executive are reserved for councillors, this allows the anti-establishment more say over the incumbent Carrie Lam’s position. These real gains grant Pan-Democratic movements greater power within Hong Kong politics.


THE MICROSCOPE: JORDAN PANG – THE STUDENT WHO TOOK DOWN A PARTY BOSS

The interweaving of the District Councils with the higher echelons of Hong Kong politics is what allowed for the most exceptional results to happen. In context, the most prominent Pro-Beijing political party is the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB), the Chief Executive’s own party. 

Jordan Pang was just a fourth year Politics and Public Administration student, and leader of the Hong Kong Student Union when he unseated a major heavyweight within the Pro-Beijing establishment. A senior DAB member, Horace Cheng was the second member of Carrie Lam’s cabinet to be voted out of office. Prestigiously called a ‘triple councillor,’ he held the positions of District Councillor, Legislative Councillor and member of the Executive Council, Cheng held his seat of Sai Wan since 2011, and stunningly lost by only ~800 votes. 


CONCLUSION

While Beijing kept quiet in the wake of the result, Carrie Lam acknowledged the result and that it signalled dissatisfaction towards her administration. But she can only make concessions at the will of Beijing. Despite this success, challenges now emerge as these new young councillors need to address concerns outside their passions of protest, that being local administration. Regardless, the results of these local elections have served to strengthen and legitimise the vast protest movement that has remained vibrant these past six months. 

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