All things must come to an end and so too will Angela Merkel’s term as German Chancellor. Most young Germans do not remember a time when the affectionately known ‘Mutti’ was not in power. Yet, Merkel’s 16 years at the helm will soon be left to the history books. With such a major figure closing the door on her political career, one major question remains: who will succeed her?
Germany will head to the polls on 26 September to elect members to the 598+ seat Bundestag. The governing Grand Coalition senior partner, the CDU/CSU, had held the chancellorship since Merkel’s victory in 2005. However, their electoral dominance is now being challenged by their coalition junior partner, the SPD, along with a surge of support for The Greens. Such an unexpected and close race had led to uncertainty in government formation with various prospective coalitions and the likelihood of a prolonged negotiation period after the election.
HOW DO GERMAN ELECTIONS WORK?
German elections are more complicated than most others in Western democracies, utilising the mixed-member proportional representation voting system (‘MMP’). Individuals are entitled to two votes. One vote is for a district representative and another vote is for a party.
The selection of a district representative is equivalent to the election of lower house members in other countries. The voter will select their favourite candidate and the one which has the plurality of votes will be elected to the Bundestag. This totals 299 of the 598 members of the Bundestag. There is roughly one district representative for every 250,000 citizens.
The other 299 seats are allocated based on the second vote. This is known as a ‘list’ or ‘party’ vote. Parties will get a portion of seats equivalent to their percentage of the vote. The parties create separate lists of candidates for each federal state, with larger states sending more members to the Bundestag. The seats allocated to the parties from the second vote will then be given to candidates from these lists, with candidates higher on the lists more likely to enter the Bundestag.
In addition to the 598 representatives are ‘overhang’ seats. This attempts to balance the first vote with the second vote to ensure the intentions of the electorate are accurately reflected. Should parties win more direct seats in the first vote than their portion of the second vote, there will be a balancing and the other parties will be given more seats to correct the difference. The current Bundestag has 111 overhang seats, the most in its history.
To make matters more complicated, parties must receive at least 5% of the vote to enter the Bundestag. Even if they win a direct seat but fail to meet the 5% threshold, they will be barred from the chamber and their seats reallocated. This happened to the FDP, a former Merkel coalition partner, at the 2013 federal election. This benefited Merkel’s CDU/CSU, which consequently nearly attained a parliamentary majority through the reallocation of FDP seats, a rare feat in Germany. It also stops extremist parties from entering the chamber, namely those on the far right.
Once the members are elected and take their seats, they elect the new chancellor. This occurs after the parties negotiate a coalition; a lengthy process that can often take months. Formally, the candidate is presented by the President of the Federal Republic as the chancellor candidate, and they are elected at a secret ballot.
At the current election there are six parties vying for seats in the Bundestag: Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union of Bavaria (‘CDU/CSU’); Social Democratic Party (‘SDP’); Alternative for Deutschland (‘AfD’); Free Democratic Party (‘FDP’); The Left; and The Greens. Of these parties, the most viable chancellor candidates are the CDU/CSU’s Armin Laschet, the SPD’s Olaf Scholz, and Annalena Baerbock of the Greens.
CDU/CSU – IN NEED OF A NEW LEADER
Since Merkel announced her intentions to retire, the CDU/CSU has experienced an ongoing leadership crisis that has led to questions over its stability. This mainly concerned the leadership of the CDU, from which Merkel resigned in December 2018, resulting in the election of Annagret Kramp-Karrenbauer. As Merkel’s favourite to become the next chancellor, Kramp-Karrenbauer experienced early popularity before facing political upheaval after various electoral setbacks at state and European elections. This led to her resignation, officially leaving the leadership on 16 January 2021. She was replaced by Minister-President of North Rhine-Westphalia Armin Laschet, who was narrowly elected leader with 52.79% support of party membership.
Laschet has proven to be a scandal-ridden candidate, overseeing a party in decline. Since he took over from Kramp-Karrenbauer, the CDU/CSU have dropped more than 10% in opinion polls. Laschet now has the lowest support of any chancellor candidate, having been overtaken by both Scholz, the current most popular chancellor candidate, and Baerbock. This begs the question: why has Laschet been so unpopular? The answer is simple — a series of gaffes that have made him politically toxic. The most serious of these incidents involved him joking on camera and laughing during a speech by President Frank-Walter Steinmeier while in a flood-ruined area. This underscored to many the fears they have about Laschet, with many concerned he lacks care and empathy.
The poor performance by the CDU leader has caused fractures in the CDU’s union with the CSU, with seven out of ten party supporters believing that CSU leader Markus Soder should now be the Union’s chancellor candidate. This raises previous tensions from early-2021 during which Soder, Minister-President of Bavaria, sought the Union’s chancellorship candidacy before conceding to Laschet. His concession only came about after the intervention of the CDU board who broke a deadlock between the two leaders.
After 16 years in power, the Union came into this election in the midst of a leadership crisis. They may be retaining her key messages about fiscal responsibility, a middle-ground approach to climate change, and further EU integration, but without Merkel they seem to be in the electoral wilderness without a warrior to fend for them. Such criticism could also be targeted at Merkel herself for not adequately preparing a successor earlier to her departure.
SPD – HAS THEIR LUCK CHANGED?
The SPD, Germany’s oldest political party, has lost seats in four of the last five elections, dropping to 153 seats at the 2017 federal election. This marked the SPD’s worst result since the Second World War. Its coalition with the CDU/CSU, beginning in 2013 and being renewed after the 2017 election, was highly unpopular amongst its members. When coupled with its own leadership instability, this placed the SPD in a weak electoral position, with the Greens polling ahead of them earlier in the campaign.
On 10 August 2020, the SPD executive nominated Olaf Scholz as its chancellor candidate. Currently serving as Vice-Chancellor and Minister of Finance, Scholz has vast political experience. He has sat in the Bundestag since 1998 and has also served as Minister of Labour and Social Affairs and as the First Mayor of Hamburg. During the COVID-19 pandemic, he has authorised a series of rescue packages to help the German economy avoid financial devastation. This is in addition to spearheading new tax regulations for large tech companies and further efforts supporting climate protection. His time in office has led him to become one of Germany’s most popular politicians, although he is also known for his robotic demeanor
Scholz has enjoyed increasing popularity over the campaign period, overtaking his rivals to become the preferred chancellor candidate. This has also led the SPD to statistically tie with the CDU/CSU and recently overtake them. This is in stark contrast to polls from early-2021 which had the SPD around 20% behind the Union. With a popular leader, the SPD leader seems to be in a stable and steady position heading towards the election. Even his involvement in a fraud probe has not damaged his popularity, with this controversy offset by success in television debates.
While Scholz maintains higher popularity, the SPD still faces many challenges. According to political scientist Gero Neugebauer, “voting behaviour [in Germany] is traditionally less determined by personalities rather than parties”. Germans still tend to trust the CDU more with key issues such as the economy which is quite ironic given that the SPD leader is Merkel’s Finance Minister. Even so, they continue to be on an upward trajectory and, should this hold, they will have saved themselves from near Armageddon.
THE GREENS – UNSUSTAINED EARLY MOMENTUM
The Greens have never led a federal government, last being in power as the junior partners in the SPD-led Schroder Government. Yet, the 2021 election was initially seen as a potential turning point, with the Greens leading in some earlier polls throughout April and May. While this invigorated their members, the lead was short-lived. This begs the question as to why the wind has gone out of the Greens’ sails.
The Greens nominated Annalena Baerbook as their chancellor candidate on 19 April, being formally confirmed in mid-June by party members. This is the first time the Greens have nominated a chancellor candidate, with Baerbock selected over her co-leader Robert Habeck. This also made her the second youngest chancellor candidate (aged 40) and the second woman to seek the position. Baerbock is considered by many to present a modern vision for Germany. Her experience in international law and her stance on environmental issues has also put her in good stead with the German electorate.
However, Baerbook lacks significant legislative and executive experience and has also been criticised for various blunders during the campaign. This includes exaggerations in her resume and a failure to declare a Christmas bonus payment. The Greens have also faced other setbacks by being excluded from the ballot in Saarland due to irregularities in candidate selections. This has caused the Greens to lose most of the early excitement they enjoyed while also causing Baerbock’s favourability to evaporate rapidly.
While the Greens are still an unknown factor to many voters, especially since they have never led a federal government, their policies seem to resonate with a large cross-section of the community. This namely involves their climate agenda, which has received further support due to the German floods this past summer. Their party has also sought to balance left-wing environmental policies with more moderate economic policies in order to attract centrist voters, a rather unique phenomenon in comparison to other Green parties.
Overall, the Greens will need to significantly improve their performance in order to be considered a senior partner in any governing coalition. While they may not lead a government after this election, a strong performance could set them up for longer-term electoral success.
OTHER PARTIES – WHO WILL ACT AS KINGMAKER?
Germany has a multi-party system with parliamentary majorities unlikely. While this article discussed the Union, the SPD, and the Greens in depth, there are other parties that may be instrumental in the formation of a future government.
Alternative für Deutschland (AfD)
The largest opposition party in the Bundestag is the Alternative for Germany (AfD). The AfD won 94 seats at the last election and was the third largest party. While they have a significant seat share, they will not likely form a part in the future government, as all major parties have tried to distance themselves from what they consider radical policies.
Free Democratic Party (FDP)
The FDP is the fourth largest party in the Bundestag with 80 seats. At the last election the FDP returned to the Bundestag after an absence of four years as they failed to meet the 5% threshold. This came after they served as the junior partner in the Merkel Government. A centrist party with a stable support base, the FDP could be a kingmaker in this election and consequently attain key ministry positions for the first time in eight years.
The Left
Founded in 2007, the Left is a far left-wing populist party that represents anti-capitalist policies. Holding 69 seats, the Left’s seat count is projected to drop at the upcoming election due to the rise of the Greens. Like the AfD, their extreme policies will mean they are unlikely to form any part of a future coalition, with the Greens distancing themselves from them.
POTENTIAL COALITIONS – PICK YOUR COLOURS
Majority federal governments in Germany are nearly impossible to attain. The last time a majority was won by one party was Konrad Adenauer (CDU/CSU) in the 1957 West German election, winning 270 seats (with 249 required for a majority). Since reunification, no party has won a majority, with Merkel close in 2013 when she was five seats short of an outright majority. This means parties have the additional consideration of coalition building when campaigning at elections.
Black-Red: CDU/CSU & SPD Grand Coalition
The CDU/CSU and SPD could renew the Grand Coalition for the third time in a row. Yet, this has historically been difficult for the SPD who have subsequently suffered at the polls. Should the SPD win the most seats, they would become the senior partner, with Scholz as the Chancellor.
Black-Yellow: CDU/CSU & FDP Coalition
Replicating Merkel’s 2009 coalition, the CDU/CSU could call upon the FDP to assist in government formation. Historically, the CDU/CSU have relied on the FDP for a governing majority, with CDU/CSU Chancellor Helmut Kohl governing five coalitions with the FDP. Laschet as Minister-President of North Rhine-Westphalia has also headed a Black-Yellow coalition on a state level. However, historical agreements do not amount to a done deal, with the FDP leaving coalition talks during Merkel’s first attempt to form government after the 2017 election.
Black-Yellow-Green (Jamaica): CDU/CSU, FDP & The Greens
Attempted by Merkel in 2017 after the SPD initially rejected the Grand Coalition, this arrangement attempts to remove the SPD from government. The Greens are viewed as the most acceptable left-wing party to centrist and conservative bases of the other parties. Should the CDU/CSU and the FDP not be able to reach a governing majority together, they may need support from the Greens. This has been functional at a state level, being in government in Saarland from 2009 to 2012 and currently in office in Schleswig-Holstein. However, Merkel’s 2017 attempts failed as the FDP withdrew from negotiations due to disagreements with the Greens.
Red-Yellow-Green (Traffic light): SPD, FDP & The Greens
Similar to the above coalition, this coalition is unlikely to occur as the FDP has too many policy differences with the other parties. It is improbable this would be approved unless huge concessions were made. This would also harm the FDP’s voting base who would likely shift to the CDU/CSU out of anger. Nevertheless, this is still touted as a viable option.
Red-Green: SPD & The Greens
As previously mentioned, the Greens last held federal cabinet roles through their coalition with the SPD between 1998 and 2003. While popular 20 years ago, support has declined for such a combination as both parties have shifted their bases with left-wing roots being replaced by priorities to entice business-centric voters. Yet, should the SPD and Greens want the CDU/CSU out of office, they might unite to end their 16-year rule.
CONCLUSION – TIME TO WAIT
There are a few things already clear from this campaign even though polls have not even closed. Firstly, the CDU/CSU without Merkel is in a state of transition and in need of stability. It has relied on her personal popularity for 16 years and done little to prepare for her departure. This is a common pattern with many political parties and it will mean the party needs time to find its post-Merkel identity. Secondly, the SPD has resuscitated itself after near electoral obliteration, with Scholz and his team starting to claw back some ground it has lost since Merkel took office. While we do not yet know election results, the SPD has at least survived to see another election as one of Germany’s major parties. Lastly, the Greens are becoming more widely popular, although they are not yet in a position to lead a government. This election may give them a stronger base which could propel them to greater power in subsequent elections, at both the state level and federal level.
The election may be on Sunday but the question of who will succeed Merkel will continue to linger for a little while longer. As government formation usually takes one to two months, Merkel will remain in office as a caretaker until one candidate can wield the support of a majority of the Bundestag. If this process is messy like after the last election, it could take as long as five months. This is a possibility if the CDU/CSU and SPD receive a similar vote share and both claim victory. Even if one party edges out the other in attaining a plurality, a greater vote share by minor parties can further complicate coalition negotiations.
So to anyone interested in the future direction of Europe’s largest country and most important economy, sit tight and get ready to watch a truly historical event unfold in the coming weeks and months — the end of an era and the beginning of another.
