EDITORIAL –
As we come to the end of 2019, it is time to reminisce on those events that shaped our year. Over the past twelve months, many leaders left the political arena through electoral defeat, coups and peaceful transitions of power. Let’s say goodbye to these people in the time honoured tradition of looking to their successes and failures while bidding them good luck in their future endeavours (be it in retirement, attempts to gain power again, or on the public speaking circuit earning loads of money).
BILL SHORTEN – LOSING THE UNLOSABLE ELECTION
18 May 2019 was supposed to be a day of jubilation for the Australian Labor Party. It was expected they would form government federally for the first time since 2013. Scott Morrison took office as PM from Malcolm Turnbull the preceding September and many had written off the Liberal Party’s chances of retaining government. However, this was not to be and Bill Shorten lost his second election as opposition leader. This was followed by his resignation , shortly replaced by Anthony Albanese. Since then, Shorten has remained in the shadow cabinet but has also largely fallen from public attention. He has now gone from being a potential PM to a figure of Labor’s past. It could have been worse – he could have lost his seat like many of his former colleagues from Queensland or former PM Tony Abbott.
ALEXIS TSPIRAS – DON’T OVER-PROMISE
Taking office in 2015, the fresh-faced leader of Syriza promised change for Greece, which was suffering from austerity and political corruption. His four year term did not fulfil many of the initial promises made and his support-base started to ebb away. It is unfair to say his time in office was unsuccessful – unemployment dropped, Greek youth began to return from abroad, and Greece’s bailout programme came to a conclusion. Yet, in the face of the fresh leadership from Kyriakos Mitsotakis, son of former PM Konstantinos Mitsotakis, Tspiras has now been relegated to opposition and must regroup in order to retake power.
THERESA MAY – WE HARDLY KNEW THEE…
In mid-2016, Theresa May came into office as a symbol of hope to get Brexit done and set the UK on a clear path to success. However, within three short years, May lost her majority and failed three times to get her Brexit deal passed by the House of Commons. Marred by events like the Grenfall Tower fire in mid-2017 and the Windrush scandal in 2018, May had a turbulent premiership. Usually a steady operator, holding office as Home Secretary for six years in David Cameron’s government, it is a real shame we did not experience her leadership during a non-Brexit period of UK politics. Recontesting her seat of Maidenhead at the election, May will remain in the background of British politics, ready to offer her advice when needed and support her constituents where possible.
MAURICIO MACRI – ARGENTINA’S RETURN TO PERONISM
In Argentina, the stage is set for Alberto Fernandez to take office on 10 December after defeating President Macri at the election in October. Over the second-half of 2018 and leading up to the election, Macri’s poll numbers began to tank and many voters looked to the Peronists who held power prior with Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner (now Vice President-elect). But to think Macri will disappear from the public eye would be a mistake, with many now believing he will lead the opposition to the new moderate Peronist Government, leading Cambiemos. While Macri will challenge the new government, for President-elect Fernandez, he has to tackle the IMF and the poor state of the Argentine economy which has weakened further during the Macri Administration. Who knows, Macri may return to power soon.
EVO MORALES – WAS IT A COUP?
While a democratic election saw the end of Macri’s term in Argentina, Evo Morales’ downfall in Bolivia is more contentious. With some describing it as a coup d’etat, including the governments of Mexico, Cuba and Uruguay, the end of the first indigenous president’s term has only further fuelled divisions within the country. With Morales forced to seek asylum in Mexico due to protests and strikes as a result of the October presidential election and then the Organisation of American States report which found fraud and manipulation in the aforementioned vote, newcomer President of the Senate Jeanine Anez took office as Interim President. However, even her position is under a cloud of controversy as no members of the Movement for Socialism (MAS), the majority in the Plurinational Legislative Assembly, voted for her to assume office. Further developments will occur in the coming weeks and months, with fresh elections likely to take place. But for now, Bolivia is in a constitutional crisis which continues to engulf the country in protest and violence.
JEAN-CLAUDE JUNCKER & DONALD TUSK – THE EU WILL CONTINUE TO KNOW THEE…
In late-2014, after finishing their terms as Prime Ministers of Luxembourg and Poland respectively, Jean-Claude Juncker and Donald Tusk took office as the Presidents of the European Commission and the European Council.
Juncker, a seasoned politician, had some controversial moments during his tenure. His informal greetings of European heads of government to his outburst in the European Parliament about treatment of smaller member-states, his was a Presidency of highs and lows. Marred by Brexit and other internal issues, Juncker’s was one of the most outspoken presidencies. Already vocal about his successor’s plans, he will not fade away into the background.
Tusk too will not simply go into the dustbin of history. He has already been elected President of the European People’s Party and was touted as a potential President of Poland, although he declined to run at the 2020 election. Tusk was extremely vocal on Brexit, being a harsh critic of Theresa May’s premiership and the UK’s negotiating position. With his continuing role at the forefront of European politics, it seems that we will continue to hear his opinions on various matters, just not from such a prominent position.
JOSEPH MUSCAT – RUMOURS ARE RIFE OF A RESIGNATION
On Friday, rumours emerged that the two-term Maltese Prime Minister had visited President George Vella to present his resignation. While only a small country, the Muscat’s potential resignation comes in the midst of a huge scandal surrounding his government. His former Chief of Staff who only resigned Tuesday, Stephen Schembri, was just released from jail due to suspicion over his possible role in the murder of journalist Daphne Caruana Galizia in October 2017. With his government enjoying success in the opinion polls, Muscat months ago was suggested as a potential President of the European Council and the world, or at least Europe, was his oyster. Now, it looks as if he will be out of office and implicated in a major scandal.
BORIS JOHNSON OR JEREMY CORBYN – WHO WILL STAY AND WHO WILL GO?
Thursday 12th December may prove to be a day of reckoning for Boris Johnson. With an election set and Johnson enjoying a comfortable lead in the polls, it seems he will get his majority and the UK will finally leave the EU in January 2020. Yet if Theresa May’s 2017 gamble taught us anything, expect the unexpected. Johnson may be out of a job by the end of the year if Labour can form government. However, there is every chance of another hung parliament and continued stagnation. If that is the case, then it would seem there was no point to this early election. There are only two likely options: a majority Conservative government under Johnson; or a Labour minority/coalition government under Jeremy Corbyn. The polls can change substantially over the next few weeks so we will have to wait and see what happens.
LOOKING TO 2020 – TRUMP, ARDERN AND MORE
In 2020, the US will head to another presidential election, with Donald Trump seeking a second term. After the 2016 election which saw Clinton unexpectedly lose, his chances are not being written off his time round. Currently under an impeachment investigation by the House of Representatives, next year’s election will either lead to four more years of the Trump Administration, or the Democrats retaking the White House. All that is certain is that political division and inflamed tensions will continue to subsist.
It may sound odd to think but popular New Zealand leader Jacinda Ardern may be at risk of losing power. Ardern’s government relies on a coalition between her Labour Party and NZ First, with supply and confidence from the Greens. She has 9 less seats that the National Party, with the opposition only needing 6 more seats to attain a majority. If polls go against Ardern, then her hold on office will be volatile. But as the polls currently stand and if she retains the current coalition/supply deals, she should be able to remain PM.
RYAN ATTARD – PIVOT’S FOUNDING EDITOR-IN-CHIEF BOWS OUT
The last goodbye for 2019 is my own. My Pivot journey started in February 2018 with the planning of a publication for like-minded students under the banner of the Monash International Affairs Society. Since our launch on 1 May 2018, we have published 139 articles, reached over 10,000 readers in 65 countries, created a website and social media platforms, and shared our articles across a variety of publications. It is now time for me to pass on the Editor-In-Chief baton to another. Pivot has been my proudest project over the last few years and while I am not disappearing completely and will remain writing and assisting where possible, I will miss it dearly. To my successor who will be announced shortly, I wish them the best and want to emphasise to them the importance of communication and educating the public about issues of global importance. Goodbyes are hard, but there is still one month for me to go as Editor-In-Chief and I will continue to relish every moment of it.
