Boris Johnson and Carrie Johnson leaving 10 Downing Street and Liz Truss and her husband Hugh O’Leary arriving on 6 September 2022 (Images sourced and adapted from Number 10)
Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, one of the largest political personalities in modern history, has bowed out as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom after just three years in the role. His consequential premiership was dominated by the UK’s departure from the European Union, the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and internal crises which ultimately resulted in his resignation. With the UK facing a cost-of-living crisis, an energy catastrophe, and low levels of trust in elected officials, Johnson’s successor and former lieutenant Liz Truss faces one of the worst in-trays an incoming PM has had to tackle in a generation. Requiring an urgent response, will she be up for the task, or will she be forced to go the way of her recent predecessors? And will she be able to emerge from the shadow of Johnson’s leadership?
Who is Liz Truss?
Mary Elizabeth Truss is not your typical Conservative. She was born into a left-leaning family and grew up in Oxford, Paisley, Leeds, and Canada. During her studies at Oxford University, she was president of the Oxford Liberal Democrats and a member of its National Executive, supporting leftist policies including the abolition of the monarchy. Post-graduation, she worked as an accountant and joined the Conservative Party.
Truss entered the House of Commons as Member for South West Norfolk at the 2010 election after being a local councillor. In her 12 years as an MP, she held government roles under David Cameron, Theresa May, and Boris Johnson. Her first ministerial role was in 2012 as Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Childcare and Education. She was elevated to the Cabinet as Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs in 2014 by Cameron, and was then shifted to Secretary of State for Justice and Lord Chancellor in 2016 by May. She was demoted by May the following year to Chief Secretary of the Treasury. Under Johnson, Truss served as Secretary of State for International Trade and most recently served as Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs, along with being Minister for Women and Equalities.
Truss’s politics have clearly changed over time. She is a libertarian, advocating for a smaller state with low taxes and less government intervention. Pledging to govern as a conservative, she is seen in some forms as continuity Boris Johnson, aiming to abolish some EU laws still on the UK’s statute books and criticising woke culture in the British civil service. Yet, her premiership may be more reactive than proactive, requiring Truss to potentially act pragmatically and abandon some long-held political views. This has already been seen with her pledges for energy and cost-of-living support. She has already asserted herself as more direct and serious than her predecessor, as evident during her first PM Questions.
The in-tray and what must be immediately tackled
Since Johnson announced his resignation on 7 July, the British Government has been in an unofficial caretaker mode, not making major policy decisions. This has meant the Truss Government now has a two-month backlog with regard to critical societal issues such as the cost-of-living crisis, inflation, and energy price increases. While PMs usually enjoy a honeymoon period after they take power, Truss will need to get straight to work to provide certainty and stability to many in dire situations.
Cost-of-living
Truss’s early premiership will need to focus on the cost-of-living and inflation. In July 2022, inflation rose to a 10.1% annual change in consumer price indices. This is significantly higher than inflation experienced by some of the UK’s neighbours, with Germany having a rate of 7.9% in August and France a rate of 5.8%. Besides this, the national energy price cap (the maximum price energy companies can charge consumers) will increase on 1 October to £3,549 from £1,971. It is forecast this will again rise in January 2023 to £5,386.
This is the first priority for the Truss Government, both as a short-term and long-term issue. In the short-term, it is expected Truss will freeze energy prices until the 2024 election, funding this through a package that will be funded through general taxation expected to cost around £130 billion. Besides this, Truss has pledged to cut taxes for all Britons, including the Green Levy and rises to National Health, so as to ease the financial burden. Long-term policies will be announced in the coming days, but Truss has pledged to create a long-term plan for energy generation and to lower British dependency on foreign markets.
Ukraine
Johnson positioned the British Government as one of the staunchest supporters of Ukraine. You only need to walk down “Boris Johnson Street” in Kyiv while eating a Johnson croissant and seeing new-born babies named Boris to understand the admiration the war-ravaged country has for the former leader. President Zelensky himself paid tribute to Johnson in The Mail, calling him a “true friend” and stating:
“At each and every meeting and conversation between us, Boris had one very good question: What else? What else do you need?”
Arguably, Johnson’s support for Ukraine gave his leadership a boost in the wake of the “Partygate” scandal, allowing him, in this writer’s opinion, to continue on for a few more months. However, Truss will need to answer difficult questions over how long the British Government can provide support for Ukraine which is contributing to inflationary issues and the cost-of-living crisis. Should the tides not turn quickly either financially or in the state of Ukraine’s war effort, then some hard decisions may need to be made so as to relieve global supply chains and the energy market.
National Health Service
COVID-19 further exposed fault lines in the National Health Services (NHS) which Johnson has largely left unresolved and that will need to be fixed by the Truss Government. These include efficient funding and spending in the NHS, construction of 40 new hospitals, and increased staffing of doctors and nurses. Many NHS staff are leaving their jobs for other professions due to stress, burnout, and an overall lack of appreciation following the worst of the pandemic and due to salary increases not meeting inflation rates.
Many of these problems have been festering for years due to lack of action by both sides of the aisle and anything to refute this is mere politicking at the expense of the hardest working Britons. The NHS is arguably at a breaking point following the pandemic and Truss’s Health Secretary and Deputy PM, Dr Thérèse Coffey, will need to urgently action a plan to reduce waiting times, increase staff levels, and improve satisfaction of nurses, doctors and administrators. She has called this her “ABCD” list of priorities – ambulances, backlogs, care, and doctors and dentists.
Brexit and Northern Ireland
By taking a gamble with an election in December 2019, Johnson obtained the highly desired parliamentary majority that allowed him to “Get Brexit Done”. Yes, Johnson can be commended for having an agreement pass the House of Commons, something his predecessor failed to do on multiple occasions. However, the job of Brexit remains unfinished with many questions unanswered.
In particular, Truss will need to resolve the question of Northern Ireland and the Northern Ireland Protocol. The constituent country of two million people remains in an uneasy limbo, with the issue of the Northern Ireland Protocol having the potential to destroy the Good Friday Agreement and divide the island of Ireland. The Protocol has been a sticking point for the British Government and unionists in Northern Ireland as it creates an invisible trade border between Great Britain and Northern Ireland so as to allow an open border with Ireland. Failure to reach a mutually agreed decision risks a trade war with the EU and instability on the island.
Besides this, Truss will need to resolve the question of the Protocol so a Northern Ireland Government can be formed. No government has been installed since the May 2022 election due to the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) not nominating a deputy First Minister over the Protocol, a requirement of the power-sharing arrangement. This means Northern Ireland remains leaderless on a devolved level and will continue to be so until the Protocol issues are resolved.
Conservative Party unity
Truss had a very divisive leadership battle with former Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak. The competition which spanned two months further divided the party, evident with Truss appointing loyalists to her Cabinet and reportedly not offering Sunak a position. The results of the leadership ballot also highlight this, with Truss getting 57.4% of votes cast to Sunak’s 42.6%. This is the closest result since the membership ballot was created and the first time a PM did not receive support from a majority of eligible members (noting that only 82% of members cast a vote).
An early order of business for Truss will be the need to unify the party under her leadership. This will be crucial for the long-term viability of her premiership. Should she fail to do this, very powerful and popular Conservative MPs sitting on the backbenches will be ready to oust her from 10 Downing Street such as Sunak and other former Cabinet members. Among these ranks also include Johnson himself who has made it no secret he wishes to return to frontline politics, with his final words in the House of Commons as PM being “hasta la vista baby” (a reference to the movie The Terminator which is famous for the line “I’ll be back”). He also compared himself to legendary Roman leader Cincinnatus in his final speech from the doorstep of Number 10, signalling that he may again be called back to leadership. Should Truss fail to unify all subsets of the party and assert her leadership, she will be a lame duck PM and the Conservatives will lose government at the next election.
Public trust
Britons currently have a low opinion of their elected officials. At the time of Johnson’s election, only 35% of the population trusted the national government. This is lower than the OECD average of 41%. Trust in the UK Parliament was even lower at 34% and trust in political parties has plummeted to 20%. Johnson’s Government left public perception in a terrible state due to breaches of COVID-19 restrictions at Number 10 – “Partygate”. This resulted in 83 individuals (including Johnson and Sunak) being issued 126 fixed penalty notices by the Metropolitan Police for social events that breached COVID-19 restrictions, including drinks in the garden, a trivia event, and farewells for Downing Street staffers.
Besides this, Johnson’s leadership involved allegations of sexual assault and misconduct against MPs. This included a Conservative MP watching porn in the House of Commons and thereafter resigning, another Conservative MP being charged of sexually assaulting a 15-year-old in 2008, and another unnamed MP being investigated over rape. Johnson’s minimal action on such behaviour was the ultimate reason he lost his job, with the final straw being his lying about his knowledge of the behaviour of former Deputy Chief Whip Chris Pincher. This led to dozens of resignations.
Truss will need to restore trust in politics. This will take a hard-line and disciplined response on her part, not just for her own actions but those of all her colleagues. This will again involve some difficult decisions, including potentially stripping MPs of the party whip (removing them from the parliamentary party) or committing to further investigations over their behaviour. Truss herself will need to restore the sanctity of Downing Street following it being tarnished by the Pincher affair and Partygate. This will take significant time, of which Truss has little.
Other issues
Truss will overall have a busy few weeks ahead. She will likely travel to New York later in the month for the United Nations General Assembly while also formulating an emergency budget with new Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng. Additionally, there are questions regarding Scottish independence and the legality of a referendum in 2023. This is most definitely a race against the clock.
Will Truss succeed?
Truss is both a known and unknown figure, making it difficult to foresee exactly how she will govern. Although she has been in Cabinet for eight years and held ministerial positions for 10 years, she has largely flown under the radar of the general public. However, her longevity over three very different premierships is a sign she is at least a formidable political operator and manoeuvrer. Should she be able to employ such skills while in Downing Street, Truss will be able to pass significant legislation and unify her party.
However, the shadow of the Johnsonian era will continue to loom over her time in office. This includes threats of a Johnson return and many MPs and voters feeling nostalgic of the 2019 election success. This means Truss will need to establish herself early as a strong and unifying leader so as to erase the memory of Johnson from her parliamentary colleagues. However, as Johnson’s long period of relevance in the midst of personal and professional crises has taught us, this will be a difficult feat to accomplish. Remember, this is a man who has been in the national spotlight since he was a journalist in the late-1980s, and through all tribulations, made it to the highest elected office.
During these precarious times, this writer wishes the new PM luck and the outgoing PM best wishes for the future. As Churchill reportedly toasted when he became PM in 1940 – “here’s to not buggering it up”.
