As we enter another year, it is imperative that we reflect on previous significant events in order to anticipate what the coming twelve months may bring. While much of 2021 has been overshadowed by COVID-19, the emergence of the Delta and Omicron variants, and the rollout of various vaccines, significant geopolitical rumblings have brewed and will continue to rumble well into 2022. The following issues may define the upcoming year in international affairs and even have impacts into 2023 and beyond.
Russia-Ukraine border – Tensions are rife as many fear invasion
As we entered the new year, Russia had around 120,000 troops stationed on its border with Ukraine. This comes in response to Ukraine signalling intentions to join NATO, which Russian President Vladimir Putin described as a “security threat”. Russia and NATO are scheduled to hold talks on 12 January which is to be followed by a wider regional meeting the next day. Regardless, U.S. sources predict troop numbers can be increased to 175,000 should Western forces continue to put pressure on Russia’s security sphere.
The new year may see one of three main solutions. The first solution involves Putin backing down and allowing Ukraine to pivot further towards Western influence. This is unlikely as it harms Putin’s Novorussia policy – his agenda to place ethnic Russian regions under Moscow’s control. The second solution involves diplomatic efforts by the U.S., Russia, Ukraine, the European Union, and other Eastern European countries. This is their current objective as demonstrated by the talks scheduled for 12 and 13 January. The third solution is the option all countries are trying to avoid and that is military action. Putin may attempt to invade and capture Russian-speaking areas of Eastern Ukraine. Russia previously attempted to gain complete control of the Donbass with a military invasion but failed due to a lack of human resources. Reinforced border forces through a military build-up would place stress on Ukrainian military forces and assets should an invasion occur.
Should border issues intensify throughout the year, Eastern Europe more broadly will be forced to choose a Eurasian path with Russia or a Western path with the EU. Broader considerations will include the place of Belarus and its Moscow-backed leader Alexander Lukashenko in the midst of questions regarding his legitimacy, along with Turkey’s precarious position due to its interests regarding other Middle East crises involving Russia. Consequently, Eastern Europe could become the centre of another geopolitical crisis.
Australia-China relations – Volatility set to continue with potential for optimism
2022 will mark 50 years since Australia entered formal diplomatic ties with the People’s Republic of China. Yet, 2021 saw the continued deterioration of relations with our largest trading partner. The past twelve months have seen this occur due to Australia’s role in the World Health Organisation’s (WHO’s) investigation into the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic, development of AUKUS and the new nuclear-powered submarine agreement, and complaints to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) regarding tariffs on Australian wine and other products. We now end the year with the Morrison Government announcing a diplomatic boycott of the Beijing Winter Olympics.
This year has evidently not calmed strained relations. The development of nuclear-powered submarines through AUKUS places Australia in a stronger position regionally to combat China. This is critical when considering Chinese ambitions in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea along with international condemnation of the treatment of Hong Kong following various attempts to suppress freedoms arguably guaranteed under the Sino-British Joint Declaration. This recently included the closure of Apple Daily and the removal of the Pillar of Shame.
There is some optimism for renewed relations in the new year. While 2021 may seem grim, China’s appointment of Xiao Qian as Ambassador to Australia is a sign Beijing may be shifting towards a diplomatic refresh. Yet, 2022 is also an election year in Australia and criticism of China may lead many politicians to intensify attacks on President Xi and the Chinese Government.
U.S. Midterms and the return of Trumpism – Setting the stage for the next presidential election
The U.S. began 2021 with the attack on the Capitol on 6 January, which was followed two weeks later by the inauguration of President Biden. While President Trump left office and voluntarily, but reluctantly, vacated the White House, his political legacy looms on in the form of reshaping the Republican Party at the 2022 mid-term elections and weakening the Biden Presidency through the loss of its narrow majorities in both houses of Congress.
The insurgency at the electoral college count along with Trump’s rebuke of the election results demonstrates how the transition of power was the least peaceful in U.S. history. This was poignantly symbolised in the former president declining to attend the inauguration of his successor nor hosting him at the White House prior, shirking tradition. While he lost the election, he remains the unofficial leader of the GOP and leads all polls for the 2024 nomination. His popularity means that he has the potential to destroy the political careers of representatives and senators in Trumpian states. Should Trump use his influence effectively in 2022, he will have most Republicans within his sphere of influence, putting him in an unassailable position for the presidential nomination in 2024.
Biden’s performance in the latter half of 2021 will help Republicans regain their congressional majorities. A defining point in Biden’s falling approval ratings was the fall of Kabul to the Taliban after the U.S. withdrawal of troops. Biden’s approval rating dropped from 51.5% on 1 August to 46.7% on 1 September. With the failure of his Build Back Better legislation along with the emergence of the Omicron variant, his approval rating currently sits at 43.1% while his disapproval is at 51.7%. This means he has the second lowest approval rating of any president since records, with only Trump scoring lower. Should voters take their anger out at the ballot, Democrats will lose their majorities and Biden will have a difficult two years in passing his agenda.
Rise of Iran’s nuclear program – Will global powers be able to contain growth?
On 27 December, talks resumed regarding the revival of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The deal initially fell apart after the U.S. denied recertification and then withdrew from the agreement in May 2018. This was followed by Iran suspending implementation of parts of the JCPOA. Talks restarted after major powers agreed to a joint text and talking points, with the focus on nuclear issues and sanctions on Iran. This is a continuation of negotiations that were held in late-November.
While talks are ongoing as of the time of this article, delegations present have indicated significant progress in negotiations. According to Wang Qun, China’s Ambassador to the United Nations (UN), this includes a common text on nuclear activities and a common understanding on how to deal with sanctions. Ali Bagheri Kani, Iran’s chief negotiator, has also signalled “good progress” and continues to indicate the Iranian delegation will remain in Vienna until a deal is reached. Iranian representatives continue to refuse private meetings with U.S. officials due to their unilateral withdrawal in 2018.
After recent blunders in Afghanistan, the U.S. continues to refute calls for military action in Iran, much to Israel’s annoyance. Instead, its hopes lay in China and Russia putting pressure on Tehran. Yet, significant progress will not be possible unless sanctions against Iran are lifted. With this highly unlikely, experts predict Iran’s status as a nuclear state is inevitable. This is especially true when considering Iran’s increased nuclear capability, which will allow it to produce a nuclear weapon within a few months.
Significant European elections – Further EU unity in doubt over the rise of right wing politicians
2022 will define whether Europe asserts itself on the global stage as one entity or if it bows to other global powers and acts in a supporting role. This path will be guided by key elections within the EU, namely France and Hungary, with both setting the stage for subsequent elections in other member-states in the following year. Following COVID-19 restrictions and economic stagnation, this will be a test of whether right-wing populism will flourish or if the establishment norm will be retained.
In France, President Macron is up for re-election after a rocky five years. From the yellow vest movement to the terrorist concerns and high unemployment, Macron’s tenure has been shaken by multiple crises. We only need to look to the burning Notre Dame de Paris as a symbol to comprehend the difficulties experienced by many in France. Opinion polls currently put Macron in the lead in the first round and second round voting. However, he lost a second round poll to Republicans’ candidate Valerie Pecresse for the first time in early-December with other polls narrowing. Unlike 2017, Macron currently faces fierce opposition which could actually see him lose power.
In Hungary, Viktor Orban will seek another term as Prime Minister. While polls have narrowed, the authoritarian leader who has been a vehement critic of the EU continues to be the favourite to win. Orban and Macron paint contrasting pictures of the EU’s future. A loss for Macron would arguably render the EU leaderless. With Angela Merkel’s departure from the German Chancellorship only weeks ago, Macron under France underpins European unity. Depending on his challenger in round two of the election, his replacement, although pro-European, could weaken the European project. A strengthened Orban and weakened Macron could also signal to countries such as Poland which has already acted in defiance of EU law that the supranational body should be a much weaker body and individual members should have further autonomy.
Africa’s unvaccinated population – A threat to the end of the pandemic
At the start of 2022, Australia had over 90% of its eligible population fully vaccinated. This is a stark contrast to the position of the entire African continent, which remains largely unvaccinated due to the cost of vaccines and their monopolisation by the global north. As of 14 December, Africa still has the largest increase in COVID-19 cases. Yet, only 20 countries have at least 10% of their population vaccinated. This is below the WHO’s target of 40% of Africa’s population being fully vaccinated.
News reports reiterate individual countries shifting from a pandemic to an endemic, meaning COVID-19 will be managed at a baseline level (i.e. steady rates of infection and hospitalisation). However, such low vaccination rates in Africa (and the developing world) will slow down this transition and delay the global return to normality. Importantly, failure to vaccinate in certain parts of the world will mean variants will develop more rapidly as they will go largely unchallenged by immune suppression.
The WHO has now set a target of having 70% of the global population vaccinated by mid-2022. To do this, the WHO has called upon manufacturers to prioritise COVAX and AVAT contracts (i.e. initiatives aimed at providing equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines) so the developing world has a steady stream of vaccines. Developed countries will also be asked to continue providing surplus vaccines to the Third World so cases can be stabilised and the baseline met. Otherwise, we may see another variant emerge from Africa and spread globally.
Conclusion – Peace and quiet not in sight
There are so many more issues that will define 2022 than those discussed in this article. The climate crisis will continue to rear its head, natural disasters are sadly expected, there will be economic turmoil due to an impending inflation crisis, and more threats to democracy may arise. If the same pattern continues, then most of these issues will be overshadowed by COVID-19 developments. Regardless, 2021 has left the new year with many unresolved problems that will continue to quickly develop and require prompt solutions from our world leaders. This prompts the question whether 2022 will be a stand alone year with its own defining events or 2021 – Part 2.
