Une Élection pendant la Pandémie? | Trudeau, pourquoi?

Do you know that political rule about not calling an early election during a major pandemic that is infecting and killing millions?

Well, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau definitely does not.

On 15 August 2021, Trudeau, with a small lead in the polls, asked newly installed Governor General Mary Simon to dissolve the Canadian Parliament and call an election for 20 September. With a short 36-day campaign, the charismatic PM was expecting to maintain his lead and regain the majority he lost at the previous election. But a lot can change in 36 days. Not only is Trudeau unlikely to form a majority, but his entire political career is at stake.

Why was the election called?

To answer this question simply, power. Trudeau asked for an election to win a majority. The Liberals may say this is untrue, but previous Canadian elections teach us otherwise. 

At the 2019 Federal Election, Trudeau’s Liberal Party won a plurality of seats (157) and formed a minority government. Trudeau lost his majority status and the popular vote. This left the Conservatives the largest opposition party with 121 seats, the most of any opposition party in Canadian history.¹The closest race between two parties was in 1972 when there was only a difference of two seats between the Government (Liberals) and the largest opposition party (Conservatives) This meant that Trudeau had to rely on support from the progressive New Democratic Party (NDP) led by Jagmeet Singh to pass its legislative agenda, colloquially known as the ‘Throne Speech’. Besides the Conservatives and the NDP, the Bloc Québécois regained their official party status and became the third largest party, winning 32 seats, a gain of 22. The Liberals also failed to win seats in Alberta and Saskatchewan, provoking the ‘Wexit’ movement, the secession of Western Canada.

Trudeau rejects claims that regaining majority status was the reason for the election to be called early. He has defended his request to the Governor General as a chance for Canadians to have their say on his post-COVID-19 recovery plan. However, Trudeau seems to be capitalising on his Prime Ministerial prerogative in order to gain further power within Parliament. Depending on the poll analysed, the Liberals enjoyed leads of around 5%. This is more significant when considering the Liberals lost the popular vote in 2019. Calling an early election to take advantage of leads in the polls may seem like déjà vu for the Trudeau family. In October 1972, Trudeau’s father, Pierre Trudeau, lost his parliamentary majority. He called an election for July 1974 riding on high favourability, winning an overall majority. Other leaders have also called elections to suit them electorally, including Prime Ministers Jean Chretien who won three majorities and Stephen Harper in 2011. 

Trudeau is taking a major gamble. However, unlike his predecessors, none of them did this during a pandemic. This is an unknown variable, and it has led to Trudeau being initially condemned by all sides. This has weakened his credibility from the outset of the campaign and damaged his overall brand.

How do Canadian elections work?

The Canadian Parliament is bicameral and consists of the House of Commons (lower house) and the Senate (upper house). Only the members of the Commons are elected with senators appointed by the Governor General on the advice of the Prime Minister and serving until they retire at 75.  

Under Canadian electoral law, elections must be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth year after the previous election. However, this is subject to the discretion of the Governor General, who on the advice of the Prime Minister can call an election sooner. This allows the Prime Minister to ask for an election to be called at a time which suits their party in the polls or takes into consideration major legislation they want approval from through a new mandate.

The Commons consists of 338 seats, with each member representing a ‘riding’ (an electoral division). Ridings are allocated proportionally across Canada’s ten provinces and three territories. These are divided accordingly:

Canadian elections use the ‘first past the post’ system. This means the candidate who garners the plurality of votes will win the seat. This usually benefits the main two parties. In 2019, while the Liberals won 33.12% of the popular vote, they took 46.45% (157) of the seats. In contrast, the NDP won 15.98% of the popular vote but only received 7.1% (24) of the seats. While various parties have committed to introducing proportional voting, no concrete steps have been taken.

A party needs 170 seats to win a majority. However, minority governments have become more common. 12 minority governments have been elected federally in Canadian history, with four since 2004 and ten since 1957. It is generally respected by all parties that the largest party will form government, even if there is a narrow difference in the seat share between the two largest parties. Yet, this does not stop two parties from forming a coalition to attain a majority.  

Who are the leaders? And why do they matter?

At the national leaders debate held last week, five party leaders were invited to speak: Justin Trudeau (Liberal); Erin O’Toole (Conservative); Jagmeet Singh (NDP); Yves-François Blanchet (Bloc Québécois); and Annamie Paul (Green). While they are all leading national campaigns and their parties have seats in the House of Commons, only Trudeau and O’Toole are plausible PM candidates. This does not mean the other parties are irrelevant as they may be instrumental in providing support to a minority government.

Justin Trudeau – Liberal

Trudeau comes from a political dynasty, being born during his father’s first term as PM. Trudeau entered the Commons in 2008 winning the Quebec riding of Papineau. He assumed the leadership of the Liberal Party in April 2013 after the Liberals suffered their worst electoral defeat in 2011 that saw them surpassed in seat count by the NDP. His charisma and the desire of many Canadians to move past the Harper years led to a surprise majority victory in 2015. 

His government has legalised recreational marijuana, negotiated the USMCA, agreed the terms of the CPTPP, and signed the Paris Agreement. Trudeau also oversaw the establishment of the Independent Advisory Board for Senate Appointments so appointments to the upper house are fair and accountable. From the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, Trudeau increased government support for Canadians, including wage subsidies and freezes to student loans.  

Trudeau has weathered various scandals, including the SNC-Lavalin Affair which plagued him in both this election and the 2019 campaign. This involved allegations that Trudeau attempted to influence Attorney General Jody Wilson-Raybould in the prosecution of SNC-Lavalin, a major employer in vote-rich Quebec. Trudeau has also been vehemently criticised for the treatment of women in the armed forces along with personal controversies such as when he wore brownface when he was younger.

Erin O’Toole – Conservative 

O’Toole also comes from a political family, with his father a former member of the Ontario provincial legislature. O’Toole served in the Canadian Air Command before commencing a legal career. He entered the Commons at a by-election in November 2012 and was appointed Minister of Veterans Affairs in January 2015 by PM Harper. When the Conservatives lost government, he served as Shadow Foreign Minister before assuming the Conservative Party leadership in August 2020. 

O’Toole is a more moderate member of the Conservatives. This is evident in his social policies, being pro-choice on abortion and supporting same-sex marriage. He has been criticised for flip-flopping on issues relating to gun laws, initially supporting the repeal of Trudeau’s gun laws but then rescinding this plan. His social progressive stance has put him at odds with the fringes of his caucus, leading to conscious/free votes on many issues. 

Jagmeet Singh – NDP

This is Singh’s second election as NDP leader. It is surprising that he retained the NDP leadership after they lost 15 of their 39 seats at the last election. Singh was born in Ontario to Punjabi parents. He is a trained lawyer and activist. He entered the Ontario Provincial Parliament in October 2011. He won the NDP leadership in October 2017 and was elected to the Commons at a by-election in February 2019. 

Singh was notably removed from the Commons chamber on 17 June 2020. This was because he called Bloc Québécois MP Alain Therrien a “racist” after he refused to support a motion regarding discrimination in the Royal Canadian Mounted Police. In a subsequent press conference, Singh became visibly emotional. His race and religion have been a point of discussion in Canadian media, with it being believed that Singh’s background was a deterrent to voters in Quebec resulting in the party’s net loss of 11 seats. An example of this was when a  Quebec voter told him to “cut off” his turban.

Yves-François Blanchet – Bloc Québécois

Yves-François Blanchet led the Bloc Québécois to success in 2019, gaining 22 seats to win a total of 32 seats. Blanchet previously served in the Quebec National Assembly and served as Minister for Sustainable Development. He took over the Bloc in January 2019 after they lost their official party status at the 2015 election. In recent days Blanchet has criticised other politicians for not defending Quebec after attacks over Bill 21, legislation banning public workers from wearing religious symbols, and claims that Quebec was racist.

Annamie Paul – Green Party

Annamie Paul is the newest political leader, becoming the Green Party leader in October 2020. She succeeded Elizabeth May who had led the party for over 13 years. Paul is the first Black and Jewish Canadian woman to serve as leader of a federal party. She had previously worked in diplomacy and public policy. Her leadership has faced internal issues due to party dissent and fracturing following MP Jenica Atwin crossing the floor after she was called out by Paul’s senior advisor Noah Zatzman over her thoughts on the Israel-Palestine crisis. Many believe she also has remained leader so the Green Party did not enter the election leaderless.

Maxime Bernier – People’s Party

While not previously mentioned, the People’s Party and their leader Maxime Bernier may play a major role in crucial swing seats. Bernier was the Minister of Foreign Affairs to PM Harper and served in other Cabinet positions. After he lost the Conservative leadership election in 2016, he formed the People’s Party.  While the People’s Party holds no seats, it is currently polling at between 5% and 8% of the vote. This means Bernier, who represents a further right ideology, may take crucial votes away from the Conservatives and in turn help the Liberals and NDP in swing ridings. 

Major issues

The Canadian election has been shaped by all political parties as a referendum on Trudeau’s leadership and Canada’s recovery. Political parties in their platforms have placed emphasis on climate change, housing affordability, energy, health care, provincial relations, treatment of First Nations, employment, and overall economic recovery.²Liberal Party Platform | Conservative Party Platform |  NDP Platform | Green Party Platform | Bloc Québécois Platform | People’s Party Platform There are vast differences on these issues depending on where Canadians live, with significant divides between urban and rural parts of the country.

Energy

A paramount issue that has been divisive across successive elections has been Canada’s energy policy and oil reserves. This has involved the construction of pipelines which have divided Western Canada and the rest of the country. Specifically, this has torn apart the Liberals who are trying to be pro-environment, pro-employment, and pro-energy independence. The NDP have also experienced similar issues with their leadership in Alberta at a provincial level supporting the pipeline while the federal leadership opposes it.

Climate Change 

Climate change has also been divisive, with the Conservatives pledging to return to the targets set by the Harper Government prior to Trudeau’s election in 2015. They have also pledged to eliminate the carbon tax and replace it with strict emissions standards. This is contrasted by the Liberals, NDP, and the Green Party who criticise the Conservatives for not being serious. This issue has been brought under further scrutiny due to the recent fires in British Columbia which has decimated entire communities.

Afghanistan

The election also came amid the fall of Kabul and the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. The Trudeau Government pledged to resettle more than 20,000 Afghan citizens. The fall exposed issues with the Trudeau Government’s handling of the evacuation along with bringing Trudeau under more pressure for calling the election. This has led to vehement criticism from all sides regarding poor execution of plans to evacuate Canadians and Afghans who provided assistance. 

Housing

All parties have stressed the importance of affordability in their platforms. The Liberals have proposed a rent-to-own program to secure home ownership for young Canadians. Existing incentives will be increased while a ban will be put on foreign money being used to purchase non-recreational residential property for two years. The Conservatives in turn will put a flat ban on foreign investors who are not resident in Canada from purchasing homes and will also release 15% of government land for home construction. The NDP have pledged to build 500,000 affordable homes over the next 10 years and enforce 1 20% foreign buyer tax on the sale of homes.

Taxes

All parties have diverged in their goals for recovery and attempts to balance Canada’s economy. The Liberals will seek to raise corporate income taxes on banks and insurance companies which have over $1 billion annual profit. In order to help reinvigorate the economy, Conservatives have pledged a GST holiday in December so retail stores can make larger profits. The NDP have proposed the creation of a 1% wealth tax on Canadians with wealth over $10 million. 

Health Care

With the COVID-19 pandemic straining public health care, all political parties have committed to further funding for the system. The Liberals have pledged to invest $6 billion to eliminate waitlists and $3.2 billion for the hiring of 7,500 new family doctors and nurses. The Conservatives have been more ambiguous, seeking to work with the provinces once in office to form a new health agreement. They have pledged $60 billion over 10 years for general improvements to the system. The NDP have followed both parties by indicating their commitment to work with provinces/territories and to expand health care to cover dental, optometry, and mental health services.

Vaccines

Political parties have been scrutinised for their vaccine policies, especially with enforcement of vaccine requirements on candidates. This has been problematic for the Conservatives who have not required candidates to be vaccinated and have not made it part of their platform for vaccines to be mandatory for public servants and other industries. Individuals either need to be vaccinated or pass a daily rapid test. The Liberals and NDP have both proposed vaccine passport systems and requirements for all public servants to be vaccinated. 

Post-Pandemic Recovery

The most important issue for Canadians is post-pandemic recovery. The Liberals have pledged to create over one million jobs throughout their term in office. The Canada Recovery Hiring Program will also be extended until March 2022 with credits to be given to employers who make new hires. Conservatives will pay a minimum of 25% of the salaries of new hires for six months starting from October. To boost tourism, they have also created a 15% tax credit policy for vacation expenses under $1,000 spent in Canada. The NDP will have similar policies to the Liberals by continuing business and rent subsidies for small businesses.

Trudeau’s path to victory – narrow and with some potholes

Trudeau’s Liberals are still the overall favourite. However, their chances of forming a majority are slim. Recent weeks have also brought into doubt their chances of even forming a minority government. 

Trudeau is banking on success in Ontario and Quebec to retain government and open pathways for a majority. Of the 338 seats in the House of Commons, 199 come from Ontario and Quebec. Liberals will need to make inroads against Conservatives and NDP in Ontario and the Bloc in Quebec to try and flip swing seats while also bringing out their vote to hold current ridings. A successful end to the campaign may help Liberals in their efforts while any controversy could cost them crucial ridings and their chances of forming government. 

Trudeau is also banking on maintaining support in Atlantic Canada (New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia). Trudeau won 26 of the 32 ridings in Atlantic Canada in 2019. However, there are questions over whether Liberals will maintain this seat count as the most recent Nova Scotia provincial election in August 2021 resulted in a surprise Conservative victory.

The Conservatives continue to dominate Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta. However, these are not as seat-rich as Quebec and Ontario. This is why O’Toole is trying to make inroads in Greater Toronto and other parts of Ontario where the Conservatives may be able to flip marginal Liberal seats. Yet, support for the People’s Party that may have otherwise gone to the Conservatives may narrowly cost them some crucial ridings. 

British Columbia on the West Coast provides a completely different picture. The Liberals, Conservatives, and NDP have all led the polls in the province at some stage. The Conservatives won the popular vote by around 8% at the last election so a close vote would give the other parties more seats at the Conservatives’ expense.  

Canada is a fragmented country. Looking at national polls will be misleading as they do not encapsulate regional differences. If we account for this, Ontario and Quebec will be crucial for the success of the Liberals and Conservatives. However, the smaller provinces and territories may be decisive should seat counts be close. 

So… who will win?

Trudeau may have thought a win was inevitable, but so much can change in such a short period of time. The charismatic leader who brought an aura of hope now has the scars of six years of leadership along with having to face COVID-19 frustration and fatigue. You only need to see the footage of gravel being thrown in his face and the constant protests at his campaign events to understand this.

Even though their lead in the polls has been brought into question recently, targeting of strategic ridings and consolidating votes in population-dense areas of Canada may mean that the Liberals form another government. Yet, should the Conservatives gain further momentum in the final days of the campaign, they may pull off an unexpected victory and take office. Third party support will also play a major role, with votes for the NDP, Greens, and Bloc coming at the expense of the Liberals while a resurgent People’s Party will weaken the Conservatives.  

This election is harder to predict than any other in modern Canadian history. A fractured electorate along with increased postal voting and pre-polling makes it more difficult to estimate the outcome. Regardless of who forms office, there are serious societal divisions which need to be overcome by the future PM. And if it is a close result and the new government has a small mandate, Canadians should expect to be back at the polls soon.