EDITORIAL –
As another day passes, it seems more likely that Donald Trump will be impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives. The current scandal regarding the President’s involvement in asking the Ukrainian Government to assist in digging up dirt on his political opponent Joe Biden opens a can of worms about the implications for the current Administration. While he would likely be acquitted by the Republican-majority Senate, such foreign interference may have wide-ranging implications for his re-election bid in just over a year’s time.
BACKGROUND
The most recently controversy of this presidency came about through a whistle-blower reporting that in July 2019 Ukrainian President Zelensky was asked by Trump to investigate former Vice President and Democratic front-runner Joe Biden. This involved his son’s involvement in a Ukrainian company and Biden’s own involvement in furthering the interests of said company. This conversation also included Trump asking Zelensky for these matters to be discussed with personal attorney Rudy Giuliani and Attorney General William Barr. This was all confirmed in a summary of the conversation released by the White House, a document produced in lieu of the full transcript.
Trump was further implicated when it was discovered that the call was moved to a secret system that was highly restrictive. This also occurred for calls with leaders of Australia, China, Russia and more. This contravened the purpose of the system which was for national security but had been misused by Trump for political self-interest. All wrongdoing by Trump was denied… to be followed by him publicly calling for the investigation of the Biden Family by the governments of China and Ukraine.
Since, the Democrat-majority House of Representatives has called for an inquiry into the impeachment of Donald Trump. This will involve investigations by six committees into Trump’s abuse of power, contravention of the oath of office, and harm to national security and the integrity of elections. Since, subpoenas have been issued on Vice President Mike Pence, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and Rudy Giuliani.
If any of the investigations are successful, Speaker Nancy Pelosi has confirmed that they will move to impeach Trump.
IMPLICATIONS
In the United States only two presidents have been impeached: Bill Clinton in 1998; and Andrew Johnson in 1868. Both were later acquitted by the Senate which requires a 2/3 majority to remove any president from office.
Trump’s situation is however different from both of these men as none of them went to another election after impeachment. Andrew Johnson retired (returning to the Senate shortly before his death in 1875) and Bill Clinton was term-limited, having been re-elected in 1996. Trump is facing re-election in less than a year and this situation can cloud his whole campaign.
Firstly, this could work in Trump’s favour and further energise his voter base. As we learnt at the 2016 election, Trump lost the popular vote but got enough disgruntled voters out in ‘purple states’ (swing states) so the election would go in his favour. This could work if his voter-base believe he is being maliciously attacked and targeted by the Democrats. In addition, this may not energise the Democrat-base. As 2016 taught us, constantly attacking Trump does not drive up votes in those states needed to win the election, namely the rust-belt states (Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, Minnesota) and the sun-belt states of Florida and Georgia.
Secondly, this could ruin Trump’s message of ‘Keeping America Great”. It could blur his messaging and what he has done over his presidency. This includes Trump having to be on the defence throughout the whole campaign instead of focusing on the policies and promises he fulfilled from his first campaign. However, Trump would likely funnel this into angering his base and bringing them out on the day.
As this is unprecedented, it is difficult to accurately predict the implications. However, what makes this difficult is Trump’s own unorthodox campaign strategies which have involved invigorating the right of politics and traditionally-inactive voters to win states usually deemed unwinnable.
LOOKING TO ELECTION DAY
The impeaching by the House of Representatives would have damaging implications for the President, especially with 13 months until the election. However, who will really care about this? Democrats will be further angered. Moderate Republicans who didn’t vote for Trump will remain dissuaded from voting. But Trump will use his anger to fuel his base so that they turn out to vote. As it stands, he will likely be acquitted by the Senate. And if he can pull it off, he will use this to help him win in 2020.
