HOW SPECIAL WAS THE ASEAN-AUSTRALIAN SPECIAL SUMMIT 2024?

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At the beginning of March, Melbourne was bustling with preparations for a special occasion: it was the Australia-ASEAN Special Summit, marking 50 years of ASEAN-Australia Dialogue Relations. There were many reasons to be hopeful – it could usher in a new era of trade and investment between two competent and eager parties. One undoubtedly a giant in the Asia-Pacific who, after decades of hanging out with its powerful friends all the way across the globe, finally realised it might be better off being on good terms with its neighbour. The other, despite its incredibly turbulent past, has grown to become a formidable power in its own rights and is increasingly asserting its command in this neighbourhood. Eager as the parties might be, however, there are some elephants in the room – ones that have long threatened the region’s stability and stalled its consensus  – that would sit high on the Summit’s agenda. 

ASEAN: an introduction

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, is a political and economic union in Southeast Asia, consisting of ten member states: Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam. Timor-Leste has been admitted in principle to be the 11th member, and is now holding an observer status until it is on track – that is, to satisfy ASEAN’s membership capacity and obligation – to achieve its full membership. The bloc was established in 1967 in Bangkok, Thailand, with the founding countries, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand, signing the ASEAN Declaration (or Bangkok Declaration). Brunei joined in 1984, followed by Vietnam in 1995, Laos and Myanmar in 1997, and Cambodia in 1999. In 2008, the member states all signed the ASEAN Charter, which formally establishes the bloc’s principles and vision.

ASEAN has a total population of around 600 million people, making it highly capable of human resources. It is the world’s 11th largest economy and Australia’s second biggest trading partner. The region has been seeing significant growth – in 2022, the region had a combined GDP of around US$3.6 trillion, twice the size of Australia’s. 

By 2040, it is projected that the region will become the world’s fourth largest economy. With ASEAN’s growing status as an economic force, Australia’s focus on the region is crucial. However, Australia’s investment in the region is acknowledged to be not on par with the region’s growing economy. The Summit presented one big opportunity to ferment this partnership. 

Australia-ASEAN relationship and the 2024 Special Summit

Australia became ASEAN’s first Dialogue Partner in 1974. Then Prime Minister Gough Whitlam described the ASEAN cooperation as “unquestionably the most important, the most relevant, the most natural.” The region is Australia’s second largest trading partner. This connection is not only economical, but cultural as well. More than one million Australians have Southeast Asian ancestry, and the region has its strong presence in Australia in terms of languages, cultures, and traditions. As such, a good ASEAN-Australia relationship is mutually beneficial and can reinforce the prosperity of the Asia-Pacific and reinforce its status of a growing force to be reckoned with in the international stage.

This Summit in 2024 was a special occasion for Australia and ASEAN to reaffirm their commitment to the relationship as well as establish new initiatives in various sectors: business, socio-cultural, clean energy, and maritime cooperation. Among the highlights was the Australian government’s AU$2 billion investment plan to boost trade and investment in the region, particularly in the region’s clean energy transition and infrastructure development. 

Clean energy transition

Investments in ASEAN’s green energy transition is arguably one of the most pivotal focuses in sustaining this partnership. Despite being a fast growing group of economies, ASEAN still faces many challenges in its green energy transition. The region is vulnerable to climate change, with previous and potential future climate-driven disasters threatening to cripple its economy. Accelerating ASEAN’s clean energy transition will have many positive impacts on the region, including Australia. 

With the aforementioned investment plan as well as the Summit’s commitment to climate talks, there are reasons to be hopeful that this could usher in a new era of cooperation and investment that help strengthen the region’s resilience and growth. 

Among the exciting partnerships announced, however, also loomed the unavoidable, burning questions that threaten the geopolitical stability of the region. 

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South China sea dispute

The South China Sea dispute was undoubtedly among the most discussed issues and was expected to be addressed. The concerned tensions are over China’s disputed activities, including naval patrolling and facilities building, in the South China Sea, which countries such as Brunei, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Taiwan all claim ownership to. 

The issue has been around since the 1900s, with China entering into conflicts with the countries ever since. The infamous nine-dash line, originating in the Chinese government’s territorial claim in 1947, which China uses to claim a significant part of the sea, remains contested. Recent years have seen heightened tensions, with the countries frequently entering direct conflicts in the area.

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Unrest in Myanmar

In February 2021, Myanmar’s military, or often referred to as “junta”, overthrew the democratically elected government and took control over the country. They imprisoned many government officials and its political opponents, including Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi, leader of the winning party. Ever since the coup d’etat, Myanmar has since been plunged into violence and chaos. In April 2021, ASEAN nations, in agreement with Myanmar’ junta, adopted the “Five Point Consensus”, which called for an end to violence and the adoption for peaceful resolutions. However, it has been criticised for its inability to enforce its objectives, and the junta has not abided by this agreement. With the evidently ineffectiveness of this agreement and the situation in the country remaining dire, all eyes were on the Summit to see how far the leaders would be willing to go to address this crisis. 

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How did the leaders respond?

The Summit also saw the nation’s leaders adopt an ASEAN-Australia Joint Leaders’ Vision Statement and the Melbourne Declaration. The Melbourne Declaration is an attempt by the nations to address the problems, albeit the lack of stronger language reflects a division on those issues. 

With regards to the South China Sea dispute, the Declaration writes, in section 18: “We encourage all countries to avoid any unilateral actions that endanger peace, security and stability in the region.” This also points to a lack of consensus among the ASEAN members towards the dispute, with many nations unwilling to be vocal of their discontent in fear of risking their relationship with Beijing. For example, in 2016, Cambodia was criticised for backing out of a customary communique of the ASEAN summit that was seeking to address China’s activities in the region. It seems like the South China Sea problem remains a major headache that threatens to weaken this partnership if a middle ground is not reached. 

As stated by the Declaration, the Five Point Consensus remains “ASEAN’s main reference to address the political crisis in Myanmar” as leaders “condemn the continued acts of violence and call for immediate cessation”. It is uncertain whether ASEAN and Australia will take stronger initiatives in the future to effectively implement the Five Point Consensus. It is obvious, however, that an effective response to the crisis demands more. The leaders will need to adopt a different approach to Myanmar’s crisis, starting with, for example, going further and addressing the ongoing structural inequalities that have been ingrained in the country’s society.

Another point also exposes the difficulty in reaching a consensus by the two parties. Addressing the situation in Gaza, the Declaration states that the members “condemn attacks against all civilians and civilian infrastructure” and that they “urge for an immediate and durable humanitarian ceasefire.” The absence of a more critical standpoint can be explained by Australia’s relationship with Israel, though the government has become more critical, especially after the death of an Australian aid worker among six others in an Israeli air strike. 

Takeaways and Summit’s Implications

One can almost sense the frustration seeping through this Declaration, as the countries tried to reach a consensus but also juggled a delicate balance between their different – and often conflicting – friendships. Australia has long been a close ally of the U.S. and the West, and chooses to align itself as such. Recall how, at the start of the Israel-Hamas conflict, Australia did not shy away from declaring its support for Israel compared to the reticence from its international counterparts and the incessant criticism of this support back home. Though Australia is increasingly looking to assert its own authority, it does not yet want to risk this friendship. ASEAN suffers the same dilemma. It is a fast-growing power whose voice is getting more and more recognition, yet many of its members have had and still maintain a strong relationship with China, which means they are not ready, or simply cannot risk losing China yet. ASEAN and Australia are eager for this friendship and what it brings, yet forging this relatively new identity can be uncomfortable for starters. 

The Australia-ASEAN relationship can only be described as “bittersweet” – it has had its fair share of contention, be it political systems or foreign policies, as each country tries to navigate in a complex network of powerful players and conflicting interests. And as it seems like the current geopolitical state will not lose any steam just yet, it would be interesting to see how the dynamics of this relationship unfolds. One thing for certain, however, is that if both want this to work, they might benefit from taking this chance to show their commitments strongly before the room gets crowded.