When the Popular Party led the votes in Spain’s local government elections this May, it was predicted to dominate in the July general election. And then the party went even further to form a coalition with the ultra-conservative Vox party, prompting talks about the first right-wing party entering government ever since the Franco dictatorship. But in an unexpected outcome, neither major parties were able to gain an absolute majority to form government. While Europe is seeing rising support for right-wing parties, the election shows just how volatile the European political climate is, raising questions as to the future direction of the continent’s politics and the mainstreaming of far-right parties.
What happened on July 23rd
On Sunday 23rd of July, all of Spain headed for a snap election. The opposition Popular’s Party (PP), under the leadership of Alberto Núñez Feijóo, led the votes with 136 seats. But its ally Vox performed worse than expected, winning a total of 33 seats, 19 seats less than the last election. The combined force totals 169 seats, 7 short of the 176-seat absolute majority to be able to form a government.
The incumbent Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) won a total of 122 seats. But this combined with the seats held by the other minor parties in the alliance will still be insufficient to maintain the government. This means the ability to form a government now depends on the vote of the Junts, a Catalan pro-independence party led by Carles Puigdemont, who is living in exile in Belgium due to his attempt at a Catalan independence referendum in 2017. With Junts being a potential kingmaker this puts them at an advantage to push for favourable legislation – at the moment, an amnesty for exiled Catalan politicians and a call for an independence referendum seem to be on their agenda, but this would be impossible for Sánchez to carry out.
What happens next?
Parliament was set to reconvene on the 17th of August, and the leaders of both parties met with King Felipe VI of Spain where they put forward their pitches. According to the Spanish Constitution, the King will appoint one of the leaders to attempt to form the government. The first voting round requires the support of 176 out of the 350 MPs in parliament, but if that is not possible, both will move to the second voting round 48 hours later, where only a simple majority is required, meaning that there only needs to be more in favour of than against. If they are still unable to secure a majority within two months, a new election will have to take place. As of present, the King has asked Feijóo, whose party secured the most votes in the election, to attempt to form a government. But it is clear that Feijóo does not have enough backing in parliament, even with the MPs from Vox. This means that a new election at the end of this year or early next year is likely to take place.
Did Sánchez’s gamble paid off?
The Spanish election was originally not due until December this year. But Sánchez decided to swiftly call for a snap election after his party performed poorly in the local elections back in May. The message was clear – it was time for the Spanish people to vote for either his progressive government or the conservative coalition of the PP and the far-right Vox. He said, in an interview with the Spanish newspaper El País, that “there’s something more dangerous than Vox. It is a Popular Party that assumes the postulates and policies of Vox”.
Sánchez’s message worked. The left has been able to set aside differences and unite under the alliance of the Sumar party. And on election day, people seemed to have reconsidered what an alliance between the PP and Vox would look like. What is clear is that if the PP is able to form a government, Spain will see the first far-right party to share power since the Franco dictatorship in the 1970s.
This year’s election witnessed a tremendous rise for Vox. The party was founded in 2013 as a breakaway from the PP. The party is ultra-nationalist and takes a hard stance against immigration, feminism, and abortion. It also denies gender-based violence and human-made climate change. Though it has had a tremendous rise in these recent years, it has not been without apprehension and criticism. A poll conducted by the Spanish newspaper La Vanguardia indicated that more than 60% of Spaniards were worried about the Vox party sharing power in the coalition government.
Europe swinging right
Following the fall of fascism in Europe in the 20th century, voters have largely shied away from electing far-right parties into power. But that is about to change: across Europe, the far-right is taking hold of power at an unprecedented pace. Italy is currently run by the government of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, whose party the Brothers of Italy has neo-fascist roots. Germany has recently witnessed the rise of the extreme right party Alternative for Germany, which has seen rising support across the country, culminating in a watershed victory in the local elections in the eastern town of Sonneberg. In Greece, as the centre-right New Democracy Party secured a second term, so have several far-right parties secured seats in government. One of these parties is Spartans, backed by Ilias Kasidiaris, an ex-leader of the now-outlawed neo-Nazi party Golden Dawn. The list goes on – in Finland, Sweden, Hungary, and Poland, far-right parties have already secured power and influenced drastic policy changes.
What made history can be as easy as being in the right place at the right time – what induced the rise of the far-right can be attributed to the turbulent situation that Europe is currently in. With the continent seeing rising immigration post-2015, there arose discussions about a European identity and how this influx of immigrants can be threatening to this as well as the nation’s economic and border security. The cost of living crisis with the ongoing war in Ukraine only worsens the situation, and during these times of extreme uncertainties and economic hardships, the far-right’s anti-immigrant and Euroskeptic rhetoric seems to strike a chord with many people. For example, this was a key election campaign by the centre-right Finns Party that led them to win the general election back at the start of this year.
Though the far-right is on the rise, the recent election in Spain also demonstrates that they have not yet reached mainstream support beyond being minor partners in coalition agreements. The question of the far-right remains open and its future trajectory in European politics will likely continue to be shaped by a complex interplay of social, economic, and geopolitical factors.
