The word ‘election’ brings about dread in society. From the tiresome campaigns to a myriad of meme-worthy moments, we cannot help but become resentful of them by the time a victor has been declared.
We in Australia have only just gone through the arduous process of numbering a ballot paper and answering the question: who is the least bad candidate? And while we may all be tired of political campaigns, spare a thought for the people of France. With a two-round presidential election behind them, they still have a two-round legislative election ahead of them. Emmanuel Macron might be back safely in the Elysée Palace for another five years, but the real test for him and his political allies is yet to come with this month’s elections and the long-term trajectory of French politics.
Macron, la deuxième partie
Macron, France’s youngest leader since Napoleon, won a second term with 58.5% of the second-round vote in late April, down from 66.1% in 2017. Although a strong mandate, it is the performance of Macron’s competitors that gained the attention of political commentators and journalists, namely Rassemblement National’s (National Rally) Marine Le Pen and La France Insoumise’s (France Unbowed) Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
This was Le Pen’s third presidential election and her best result to date. Since her first presidential election ten years ago, the darling of the far right’s first-round vote has grown gradually from 17.9% to 23.15%. While this does not seem like significant growth, we need to consider the splintering of the far-right vote between Le Pen and Reconquête’s Eric Zemmour at this election. Together they made up 30.22% of the first-round vote. Should the far-right vote have consolidated in one candidate, that individual would have beat Macron in the first-round.
Signs of a growing far right are more evident in the second-round results, with Le Pen receiving 41.5% of the vote, up from 33.9% in 2017. To demonstrate the sharp rise further, Le Pen’s father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, Front National candidate at the 2002 presidential election, received only 17.8% of the second-round vote. This means over the last 20 years the far-right has increased its second-round vote share by 23.7%. Should trends continue, France may soon be heading for a far-right politician in the Elysee Palace.
The other name on French political-pundit lips is that of Mélenchon, who only missed out on progressing to the second-round by 1.2% of the vote. Mélenchon’s success demonstrates how French voters are now put off by the traditional leftist parties, specifically their traditional standard bearer the Socialist Party. Its presidential candidate, current Mayor of Paris Anne Hidalgo, did not even garner 5% of the vote, meaning she and the Socialist Party are ineligible to claim election expenses. This issue is not just on the left, with centre-right Les Republicans candidate Valérie Pécresse only receiving 4.8% of all votes cast, meaning she is also unable to receive taxpayer funding to cover election expenses. Mélenchon may not have made it to the second-round, but his political influence is not going anywhere soon. This will be the subject of further discussion later in this article.
Should this election give any indication for the long-term future of French politics, then it is only that it is going to become more polarised and populist. With the traditional parties sidelined and centrism currently lacking a champion in the post-Macron era, the country will either move sharply to the left under Mélenchon or a figure like him, or move to the right under Le Pen or a figure like her. This will not be a uniform shift of support to one ideology, with urban/regional, age, socio-economic, and cultural divides evoking heated debate and dividing the country further.
Legislative elections – Cohabitation for Macron or absolute power?
The legislative election is set to take place on 12 and 19 June, with French voters electing 577 members of the National Assembly. While Macron was successful in retaining his presidential power and the accompanying privileges, the result of the legislative election will determine whether he is to be a lame-duck president.
Legislative elections have a great bearing on Macron’s presidential power, as France has a semi-presidential system. Under Article 8 of the Constitution of the Fifth Republic, the prime minister is appointed by the president. Although Macron is technically free to choose whomever he wants, the National Assembly can force the resignation of a prime minister and their government through a motion of censure. Should Macron’s opponents attain a majority in the National Assembly, they can force him to appoint a prime minister who is a political opponent, resulting in what is known as cohabitation.
Prime ministers are crucial to the operation of the French Government as it is they who will control domestic policy while the president under constitutional convention generally focuses on foreign affairs and defence. In the event the prime minister is from the same party as the president, they will defer to the president’s policy direction and decisions. However, in the event of cohabitation, the prime minister and president may be at odds, resulting in a fracturing of government and a division in national policy. This would be a disastrous prospect for Macron, who has enjoyed complete power for his first term.
What is the likelihood of Macron succumbing to cohabitation? It’s remote, but not impossible. Current second-round polling predicts his parliamentary alliance, Ensemble, will receive between 275 and 315 seats, with 289 seats required for a majority. Macron’s main obstacle is Mr Mélenchon and his Nouvelle Union Populaire Écologique et Sociale (NUPES) alliance. The alliance was formed after the presidential election in an attempt to stop Macron from gaining the desired majority by consolidating the left-leaning vote with an aim to install Mélenchon as the prime minister. Current polls have shown NUPES to win the first-round.
Should Mélenchon become prime minister, Macron will need to surrender control of domestic policy to him in line with constitutional convention. Besides fracturing the operation of government and instilling disunity between the offices of president and prime minister, it will create confusion within the European Union, as Mélenchon will nominate ministers who will represent France in the Council of Ministers while Macron will be its representative in the European Council. Consequently, different policy directions will be put before the consideration of various EU institutions, with fellow members required to deal with potentially contrasting policies and French leaders with different viewpoints.
Although the odds are still in Macron’s favour, Mélenchon’s recent rise and consolidation of the left has placed him and his allies in a position to weaken the Macron presidency. Even if NUPES fails to get a majority, it will still be a strong force in French politics and act as a formidable opposition to Macron, propelling Mélenchon or another champion of the left into front-runner status for the next presidential election in five years’ time.
Looking beyond 2022
France has experienced a very unsteady past five years. It has experienced terrorist attacks, national protests, a pandemic, all of which have been symbolised in the devastation of the Notre Dame de Paris. While we may be able to make some accurate predictions about the upcoming legislative election, looking beyond them may be difficult. Regardless, if current trends persist, there will be a further polarisation of politics in which voters will look to non-traditional political parties from the far-right and far-left. Unless Macron can quell internal divisions, he will leave office in 2027 with a country torn further apart and on the precipice of such political disharmony that it could take generations to recover.
