BY OWEN ROBINSON –
DISCLAIMER: THIS ARTICLE WAS WRITTEN BEFORE THE TALIBAN TAKE OVER IN AUGUST.
Twenty years, four Presidents and over 180,000 casualties later, the United States is officially leaving Afghanistan. The 2001 Invasion of Afghanistan and subsequent War has been the US’s longest conflict. It has further been one of the most consequential events in recent history, responsible for spurring the boundless War on Terror. However, to truly realise the immense repercussions of this momentous occasion, it would serve us to look back at how we got to today.
The Modern Politics of Afghanistan
The history of the territory which modern-day Afghanistan is centred on can be traced back through thousands of years as well as numerous empires and polities. The boundaries of modern-day Afghanistan were influenced and moulded by the ‘Great Game’, referring to a rivalry between the British and Russian Empires over colonial influence in Afghanistan in the 19th century. The aim of both Empires in this conflict was to prevent the other from extending their influence over central Asia, partilarily for the British as Russia already exerted considerable influence over the region. This is in addition to the typical motivations of increasing trade, forcible resource extraction and economic growth. The conflict largely ended in a stalemate as Russia had to withdraw following its loss in the Russo-Japanese War. This conflict is integral to understanding Afghanistan’s modern history and kickstarted a deep distrust in, and spirit of resistance against, foreign imperial powers due to the tens of thousands of Afghan lives lost to foreign imperialism. Following a period of monarchical and republican rule, as well as instability due to their conflict with the Soviet Union, Afghanistan was ruled by the Taliban, a fundamentalist Sunni Islamist militia and political group, from 1996 to 2001.
The US Invasion
The 2001 US Invasion of Afghanistan began in the wake of the 9/11 Attacks in New York City by the terrorist group Al-Qaeda led by Osama Bin Laden. Bin Laden had previously organised, with US support, groups of Mujahideen (persons engaged in a religious struggle, or Jihad, to further ‘god’s will’) to resist Afghanistan’s invasion in the Soviet-Afghan War (1979-89). By 2001 Afghanistan was home to Bin Laden and several Al-Qaeda training camps under the protection of the ruling Taliban, who resisted US demands to transfer Bin Laden to their custody. With overwhelming American public opinion supporting military intervention and a particularly hawkish Secretary of Defence in Donald Rumsfeld, a US military incursion seemed inevitable.
The Taliban were quickly removed from government and their power decimated as the US and its allies surged across the country. A US-backed government was hastily elected in mid-2002 under the leadership of Hamid Karzai. The US-backed government would find its work difficult as a resurgent Taliban emerged in 2003 with new allies and guerrilla warfare methods. The war continued in this form until 2015 when the US altered its focus from military operations to providing training, economic and logistical support for the Afghani Military, creating the precursor for withdrawal.
Consequences for Afghanistan and the Middle-East
The Taliban is, by no means, a spent force. The Afghan Government controlled just 54% of the country at the start of the year, the lowest proportion since 2015. Without US and allied support there is little to suggest that the government will be able to combat the Taliban and re-establish authority, let alone a stable democracy, over its claimed territory. Leading analysts have painted a dismal portrait of the government’s current position, claiming that, following a US withdrawal, the Government would essentially have to ‘abandon the south’ to stand any chance of holding its current territory.
Beginning with the Soviet-Afghan War (1979-89), Afghanistan has been subjected to near continuous conflicts, with between 1.5 and 2 million civilian and military casualties from all parties as a result. This is where the true cost and consequences of a US withdrawal can be found. Afghani civilians have been subject to near-unimaginable misery over the last 42 years and a US withdrawal will almost certainly doom Afghanis to a similar fate. This is a hard reality to face, matched only by the possibility that continued US involvement would produce no better outcome. Twenty years of war has reduced the threat of terrorism from the region, though stable democracy seems no closer than it was in 2001. To this end, several policy advisors have suggested that military action is fundamentally unable to alter the political and social dynamics in Afghanistan needed to reverse the entrenchment of the Taliban and maintain democratic rule.
It would be naïve to assume that any US decision from this point would be able to solve a problem rooted in years of complex history and socioeconomic dynamics. Nonetheless the US withdrawal will likely cause a degradation in the position of the Afghani government in the short-term, to an uncertain long-term future for the state. However what is certain, is that Afghanistan’s 42 years of agony is far from over.
Consequences for the United States
After nearly 20 years of war, America has rather little to show for the trillions of dollars and thousands of lives sacrificed to the conflict. They certainly have achieved one of their initial goals; a reduction in the risk of terrorism emerging from the region although this has come at the expense of rising rates of terror in other ignored regions. For example, rates of terrorism originating from Western Africa and other Middle-Eastern nations have skyrockeedt with groups like Boko Haram and ISIS (until recently) greatly expanding their influence. The goal of establishing a stable democratic State and potential future ally, the US has failed rather significantly, as previously expanded upon. However, the withdrawal from this conflict poses its consequences and challenges.
Public opinion in the US has slowly fallen from its initial near-universal approval of the invasion to a majority expressing the view that the US has ‘mostly failed’ in achieving its goals. This is reflective of a loss of US prestige, both domestically and internationally, experienced throughout the War on Terror. Largely due to the US engaging in several questionable dealings, from the Iraq War to alliances with authoritarian regimes, in the pursuit of an immeasurable goal. The withdrawal of the US will do little to help this downturn in opinion as it highlights just how little impact the intervention has had upon Afghanistan. Although it now seems clear that withdrawal is the most popular option amongst the American public.
This loss of prestige is visible in foreign opinions of the US, and its repercussions will extend far beyond national pride. The maintenance of a positive international reputation is integral to restraining the rise of global powers like China and Russia, who will be only too happy to seize upon any American failures to expand their own influence and power. China in particular has already demonstrated its willingness to utilise the conflict’s failures to tear down Western powers, particularly in relation to Australia.
Wider Consequences
This withdrawal is indicative of a wider shift in US foreign policy as the Biden Administration attempts to rehabilitate the US’s international image after four years of isolationism under Donald Trump. Whilst the withdrawal is a continuation of Trump’s policy, its motives differ. In his first foreign policy address, Biden emphasised a pivot towards diplomacy and a steadfast opposition to continuing conflict in the Middle-East, withdrawing US support for government forces in the Yemeni Civil War.
The long-term consequences of the withdrawal are near-impossible to conclusively state, with the exception of continued conflict within Afghanistan. However it is clear that this event is representative of a wider change in the US’ role in the international system, spurred on by a world that is vastly different from that of 2001. The main difference being a waning of the US’ global influence as it faces several new challenges, both within and without. Internal strife such as the Black Lives Matter movement and increasingly violent far-right groups has combined with growing Chinese power, to present a global image of the US that is vastly different to the undisputed hegemon twenty years ago.
The Taliban’s August 2021 Offensive
Since the time this article was written the Taliban have swept across Afghanistan with astonishing speed. In a matter of weeks Taliban forces have captured numerous provincial capitals and swathes of land with a ferocity reminiscent of a 1940’s Blitzkrieg. The Taliban are now camped outside Kabul with all expectations being that the city will fall within weeks, if not days. Whilst the US and other international actors never held much honest hope for a strong democracy within Afghanistan, this turn of events has still managed to shock experienced political and military commentators.
The Taliban’s sweeping success can largely be attributed to a sense of futility amongst government forces. Unlike previous conflicts with the Taliban, this recent offensive has seen little fighting at all. Most cities have simply surrendered to the Taliban when reached by hostile forces, seeing little point in fighting a battle they believe they have no hope of winning. The widely reported corruption within Afghanistan’s government and military, and strong civilian support for the Taliban in some areas, have likely also played a strong role in the ease with which the Taliban have moved across the state.
As the fall of President Ashraf Ghani’s government now appears inevitable, so too does the demise of the hard-earned progress towards women’s and democratic rights within the country. Women in academia are already being told their positions are at an end, as they are replaced with men. Bans on many forms of art, entertainment and public expression, in line with past Taliban governmental policies are likely to follow. Concern is also rising as to the fate of the thousands of Afghani citizens who assisted Western powers, who, if the Taliban’s past actions are anything to go by, will almost certainly be subjected to cruel fates.
Despite raging discussion as to the West’s role in supporting Afghani citizens, it now seems inevitable that progress towards democracy and equality within Afghanistan is at an end for the foreseeable future.
Editors Note
Pivot and MIAS stand with the people of Afghanistan. The debate series hosted by MIAS in conjunction with Afghans for Progressive Thinking اندیشه وران and Monash GPS over the last year has highlighted the importance of human rights being upheld, and it remains just as important now. We express our support to our friends from APT and to anyone affected by this in the MIAS community. If you would like to show your support, please see the open letter below.
