BY RYAN ATTARD –
In his final speech to the Knesset as Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu said:
For my friends here in the Knesset, and to the millions of citizens in Israel. I tell you today, do not be downhearted. Stand tall. We shall continue to work together for our beloved country. I am with you friends, daily battle against this bad, dangerous, left wing government, to topple it. And with God’s help, it will happen much sooner than you think.
Netanyahu’s downfall comes after a tumultuous period in Israeli politics. With four legislative elections in two years and Netanyahu being indicted on charges of bribery and fraud, many around the world see the new government led by Naftali Bennett as a force for positive change. However, Netanyahu, the seasoned political veteran who has served as PM for five terms, might be able to take advantage of the weaknesses in the arguably fragile coalition to return to power.
Background of Netanyahu’s Downfall
The Thirty-Fifth Israeli Government was formed on 17 May 2020 after three consecutive legislative elections which gave no party a clear mandate. Likud formed a unity government with Blue & White and other smaller parties. Blue & White leader Benny Gantz served as the Alternate Prime Minister (a position created for Gantz to indicate that he would swap with Netanyahu and become PM half-way through their term). The Netanyahu-Gantz Government was supposed to last for 36 months, with the coalition agreement between Likud and Blue & White setting elections for May 2023. However, this arrangement became redundant when the Knesset failed to pass the national budget by the deadline of 23 December 2020. This resulted in the collapse of the governing coalition and the dissolution of the Knesset, with elections called for 23 March 2021 (90 days after the Knesset’s dissolution).
Netanyahu’s Likud faced significant challenges from opposition parties. Opinion polls suggested Likud losing around a fifth of their voter base and Blue & White having their support collapse due to their split after forming government. While Likud continued to lead in opinion polls, Netanyahu had very limited recourse in forming a coalition. Unfortunately for Netanyahu, results were similar to the opinion polls with Likud losing seven seats (retaining 30 seats). The next largest party was Yesh Atid with 17 seats, followed by Shas on nine seats and Blue & White on eight seats.
On 6 April, President Rivlin charged Benjamin Netanyahu with the formation of a new government, giving a deadline of 4 May. Failing to meet this deadline due to a majority of the Knesset having an anti-Netanyahu stance, Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid was charged with forming a government by 2 June. Lapid worked with Yamina leader Naftali Bennett in creating a governing coalition. By late-May, Lapid had the support of Yamina, Blue & White, Labor, Yisrael Beiteinu, New Hope and Meretz. Hours before the expiry of the 2 June deadline, Lapid and Bennett got the support of the Islamist Ra’am Party. This gave the coalition 61 of 120 seats, a majority of two. On 13 June, the non-Netanyahu government was sworn in after the coalition was approved by the Knesset and Bennett became PM, with Lapid becoming Alternate PM and set to take over in early-2023. Netanyahu as the leader of the largest opposition party became Opposition Leader for the third time in his career.
How Netanyahu may return
Netanyahu has projected confidence in his hopes to return as PM. There are various routes which can see Likud and Netanyahu regain power. The most likely of these is the disintegration of the new government. Described as a “patchwork coalition” by various news outlets, the Bennett-Lapid Government is made up of eight parties with very different political leanings. This includes:
- Yesh Atid (17 seats) – Centre
- Blue and White (8 seats) – Centre
- Yamina (6 seats) – Right to far-right wing
- Labor (7 seats) – Centre-left wing
- Yisrael Beiteinu (7 seats) – Centre-right to right wing
- New Hope (6 seats) – Centre-right to right wing
- Meretz (6 seats) – Left wing
- Ra’am (4 seats) – Big tent Islamist
With 61 seats exactly, it only takes one member of the Knesset (MK) withdrawing support for the government for its majority to vanish. This patchwork coalition with its varying ideologies and political positions has already raised doubts within its own ranks. This was evident with Amichai Chikli, a Yamina MK, voting against the governing coalition in their investiture vote due to the inclusion of the left-wing Meretz Party in the government.
Israeli settlements
One major detriment to the Bennett-Lapid Government’s stability will be issues relating to Palestine. The new government is the first to include an Arab party, Ra’am, which represents Palestinian citizens of Israel. While the government may try to avoid these issues, there are outstanding concerns with Israeli settlements in the West Bank which cannot be avoided. In a statement released following the selection of Bennett as PM, the Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh said:
“We do not see this new government as any less bad than the previous one, and we condemn the announcements of the new prime minister Naftali Bennett in support of Israeli settlements… The new government has no future if it does not take into consideration the future of the Palestinian people and their legitimate rights”.
In his first speech as PM, Bennett said he would “ensure [Israeli] national interest” in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, projecting the typical right-wing position on the situation. It is this position held by the Prime Minister that has led many to condemn Ra’am and its leader Mansour Abbas as defectors. Should Abbas be pressured to challenge the PM on this issue or oppose key policies, this will likely lead to the disintegration of the Government. While Bennett can try to avoid these issues through social and economic policies which Abbas claimed would help Palestinians, it could be this issue that splits this fragile government.
Left-wing v Right-wing
There are various examples of left-wing and right-wing parties forming coalitions together, a major one being the Grand Coalition in Germany between the left-leaning SPD and the right-leaning CDU/CSU. With this coalition having lasted since December 2013, it is proof that western democracies can have carefully formed governments with key ideological differences. However, the Bennett-Lapid Government differs from other key examples due to the diverse ideologies represented by the eight parties. With such diversity, it is likely there is going to be tensions in policy development and execution with right pitted against left.
One main problem for many members of the government is the ultranationalist beliefs of Bennett and his Yamina party. Besides his strong support for the Israeli settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, Bennett has also vowed to continue Netanyahu’s confrontational policies towards Iran while bringing liberal economic policies. His right-wing policies act in opposition to those of the left-leaning Meretz, Islamist Ra’am Party, and go further than the other right-wing parties.
There are not just tensions between the ideology of the PM and other parties. An example of this is evident between the progressive Meretz and the conservative Ra’am. Meretz, the most left-leaning party in the government, has vowed to push for legislation which advances LGBTQI+ rights. However, Ra’am has claimed it would oppose any pro-LGBT legislation. While this may not lead to either party completely leaving the coalition, it may result in one or a few MKs leaving the government, meaning they lose their majority in the Knesset.
What may stop Netanyahu
Likud may succeed in their attempts to return to power. However, Netanyahu may not be returned as PM. While his power within Likud remains unwavering, the new government may find a way to bar him from regaining power through the passage of legislation.
The Bennett-Lapid Government is planning to pass legislation which will stop Netanyahu from running again by creating term limits. This would involve a person only being able to serve as PM for eight consecutive years, with a four-year cooling-off period before running for re-election. This would mean that Netanyahu would be barred from returning as PM until 2025 should legislation be passed by the Knesset this year. This legislation is being spearheaded by New Hope party leader Gideon Saar who lost the Likud leadership to Netanyahu. While this would make it difficult for Netanyahu to return as PM as others may take advantage of the situation to replace Netanyahu as Likud leader, it does not permanently ban him from office.
Netanyahu could instead be barred from forming a future government due to corruption charges. Netanyahu was indicted on 21 November 2019 and officially charged on 28 January 2020. This included charges for fraud, breach of trust, and bribery. While he did not resign from office, he did relinquish his roles as Minister for Agriculture, Health, Social Affairs, and Diaspora Affairs. Attempts were made to stop Netanyahu from forming a government in mid-April 2021. However, the Supreme Court determined that Netanyahu could still form a government while under indictment and during a criminal trial, reaffirming a decision reached in early-2020. If found guilty at the current trials, Netanyahu would be unable to serve as PM, making a comeback impossible and unlikely after he finishes any potential prison sentence.
While the opposition and the law could hamper Netanyahu’s return, it could be his own party that stops him. Heading into opposition will be a reality check for Likud, with 17 of their 30 MKs having served as ministers in the former government. In opposition, Likud will only have limited official Knesset roles and will only control three Knesset committees. Due to their reduced powers, there are reports that many MKs will further challenge Netanyahu on appointments and policies. This may come to a climax during a leadership primary. While there were rumours that Netanyahu planned to call a primary as soon as the new government was formed, opponents have fought this so potential challengers of Netanyahu can prepare bids. Should opponents gain enough traction, Netanyahu could lose much power within his own party and become a further liability to Likud regaining power.
What next?
Likud has not gone into opposition quietly. Within three days of losing power, it called a motion of no confidence in the new government, with the motion being defeated on Monday. Although the motion failed, it is symbolic of the fierce opposition Likud will continue to bring against the new government. This will be a process PM Bennett will need to get used to as the Opposition will continue to take every opportunity to divide this fragile coalition in order to regain power.
