WILL THE BELARUS PROTESTS TOPPLE LUKASHENKO
BY LUDWIG COOK
On 9 August 2020, Alexander Lukashenko was elected to his sixth term as President of Belarus. The official results credited him with 80% of the vote. The main opposing candidate, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, immediately contested the result as fraudulent. Widespread allegations of vote rigging followed, causing an explosion of protesting against the president.
The Lead Up to Election Day
Alexander Lukashenko heads an authoritarian government. He is often referred to as ‘Europe’s last dictator’. He has won every election since first being elected in 1994. Apart from the first, none of the subsequent elections have been considered free and fair by international monitors. Belarus’ press is restricted and monitored. Opponents of Lukashenko, including opposing presidential candidates, have often been arrested and tortured before they could stand against him.
The protests first began back in May. They were initially in response to the detainment of Sergei Tikhanovsky, anti-government activist and candidate for election. In a post, Tikhanovsky compared Lukashenko to a cockroach character from a popular Russian children’s poem. The arrest of Tikhanovsky backfired. Thousands of Belarusians took to the streets in late May to protest the arrest and Lukashenko’s government. The movement began to be referred to as the ‘Anti-Cockroach Revolution’. Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, the wife of Sergei and respected human rights activist, announced that she would take his place and run for election. During June, several other candidates, including the main opposition rival Viktar Babaryka were arrested. The government claimed they were part of a foreign-backed plot to overthrow Lukashenko.
On 9 August, the day of the election, the Belarusian Internet temporarily went down. The government claimed it to be the result of foreign interference. Independent reporters claimed it was the government attempting to prevent people from expressing who they had voted for. The day after, the results showed Lukashenko winning in an apparent landslide, with 80% of the vote. Svetlana Tikhanovsky was credited as receiving just 9% of votes. The results triggered an uproar, with pro-opposition protests occurring across every major city in Belarus. Over the course of the day and night, over 3,000 people were arrested. At least 50 were taken to hospital in critical condition. One man, Alexander Taraikovsky, became the first widely reported death from the protesting. Belarus police reported that he died after an explosive device he intended to throw at police blew up in his hands. A video taken by witnesses shows Alexander empty-handed and being shot in the chest by police.
Post-Election Protests
The violence inflicted on Alexander Taraikovsky has become typical of the wider government response to the protests. Over 13,000 people have been detained since demonstrations began. A statement released by UN human rights experts discussed over 450 documented cases of detainees being beaten, tortured, and deprived of food and water. It also included accounts of women and children being sexually abused and raped by police, sometimes with the use of rubber batons. Protestors are regularly shot at. The current death toll is unknown and possibly being censored.
For all the brutal repression that has occurred, protestors are still turning out in large numbers. It is over two months after the election, and just this past week a peaceful march in Minsk, the nation’s capital, had over 100,000 participants.
Tikhanovskya has become the de facto leader of the opposition and has stood by her claim of having received the majority of the vote. In August, she and others formed what was deemed the ‘Coordination Council’. The council is aimed at facilitating a peaceful transfer of power and holding free elections at the earliest possible stage. As he did with the protests, Lukashenko condemned the council as an ‘attempt to seize power’ and refused to recognise its validity.
The International Response
In the immediate aftermath of the election, a multitude of countries and international organisations released statements regarding the result. The United States government stated it was ‘deeply concerned’ with what was occurring in Belarus. The European Union outright refused to recognise the result as valid. Economic sanctions have been implemented against specific figures in Lukashenko’s government in order to prevent them from travelling and doing business abroad.
Some countries have recognised Lukashenko’s re-election, and backed him as the president. A key figure of support for the embattled president has seemingly emerged in the form of its larger neighbour, Russia. After initial meetings in September, Putin agreed to grant aid to Belarus in the form of US $1.5billion to stave off short-term economic losses. Little else is known of what they agreed upon. The relationship between Putin and Lukashenko has not always been warm. Russia’s current backing is likely due to Putin’s fear of the protests inspiring similar behaviour in his own country, which is right next to Belarus. It could also be a way for Putin to gain economic power in Belarus. The two countries ostensibly have an economic partnership, but Lukashenko has been loath to cede power in the past. The threat to his rule might be the key that Putin needs to expand Russian interests in its neighbouring country.
An Uncertain Future
The key question at hand is how long the protests can go for. The scale of the discontent against his government has clearly left Lukashenko shaken. Despite this, he continues his refusal to back down, stating he would rather be killed than relinquish power.
The brutality of the government has also caused a large amount of unwanted international attention. Anti-government activity has always been repressed in Belarus, but the violence of the current response has human rights experts concerned.
The pressure on Lukashenko is clearly mounting, but it is unclear whether this tension will spill over into real change. If Russia continues to support the government, then mild sanctions will likely be the extent of international aid offered to the Belarusian people. Protesting is a powerful tool that could topple Lukashenko. On the other hand, it is entirely possible for the government simply to keep up its violence and repression until the protests dissipate.
