Donald J Trump has coronavirus. Let me put it to you differently – a 74 year old man with unknown health issues who is on the verge of obesity has coronavirus. Yes, the President of the United States, the leader of the free world and Commander-In-Chief, is in the most vulnerable category for coronavirus. Now showing ‘mild symptoms’ and going to Walter Reed Medical Center out of an ‘abdundance of caution’, questions have emerged about what would happen should Trump become incapacitated or, God forbid, die of the disease.
INCAPACITATION
Should the President become incapacitated, meaning he is unable to discharge his duties, Vice President Mike Pence will become Acting President. This will mean he has all the powers of the Office of the Presidency and will fulfil Trump’s constitutional duties until the President has recovered or is no longer incapacitated.
There are two ways for Pence to become the Acting President. Both of these are contained in the 25th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.
- Under section 3, Donald Trump could declare in writing that he is unable to discharge his duties. Mike Pence would become the Acting President and would remain in the role until Trump declares in writing that he is ready to discharge them.
- Under section 4, the Vice President and the Cabinet could vote to declare the President is unable to discharge his duties.
- Four days later, the Cabinet will need to make a second declaration for the Vice President to remain the Acting President.
- The Congress then has 21 days to consider the declaration. A two-thirds majority is required to determine the President is incapacitated.
- The President resumes office after they notify Congress they are able to and the Cabinet/Congress do not challenge this with a two-thirds vote.
Since the ratification of the 25th Amendment in 1967, section three has been used three times in recent history. It was first invoked by Ronald Reagan on 13 July 1985 when he had a precancerous lesion removed. George W Bush invoked it two times during his presidency, on 29 June 2002 and 21 July 2007 for colonoscopies.
DEATH
Should the President die while in office, the next in line of succession will assume office. In this case, Mike Pence as the Vice President is first in the line.
While under Article II the Vice President may be the successor, the Congress has the power to authorise people in the line beyond the Vice President. Under the Presidential Succession Act 1947 (last revised in 2006), this is as follows:
- Vice President;
- Speaker of the House of Representatives;
- President pro tempore of the Senate;
- Secretary of State;
- Secretary of the Treasury;
- Secretary of Defense;
- Attorney General;
- Secretary of the Interior;
- Secretary of Agriculture;
- Secretary of Commerce;
- Secretary of Labor;
- Secretary of Health and Human Services;
- Secretary of Housing and Urban Development;
- Secretary of Transportation;
- Secretary of Energy;
- Secretary of Education;
- Secretary of Veterans Affairs; and
- Secretary of Homeland Security.
All members of the line of succession must be eligible for the presidency and have been confirmed as officers by the Senate. All members of the Cabinet are eligible except for the Secretary of Transportation, Elaine Chao, who was born in Taiwan.
While this long list may seem somewhat pointless and has rarely been used, it is crucial should a major disaster occur in which most of the Cabinet and top leadership are killed. This is usually important for events when the Cabinet and Congress are together, such as the State of the Union. At this moment, one of the above office bearers are chosen as the ‘designated survivor’ – someone who is kept hidden and secure should an attack occur and the line of success be wiped out.
WHAT IF SOMETHING HAPPENS TO MIKE PENCE?
Mike Pence has had a negative COVID-19 test. However, he has had regular contact with members of the White House who have the disease, meaning he has a higher risk of being diagnosed.
Should the VP and President both be incapacitated, the next in line of succession could assume power – Democrat Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi. This is something the White House will avoid at all costs as it means presidential authority would temporarily be held by the Democrats who could use the opportunity to pass significant executive orders and attempt to change policy. While this could be changed back afterwards, they may still have achieved their objective, angering Republicans.
IMPACT ON THE ELECTION
Trump’s diagnosis has largely put a halt to his campaign. With events scheduled in swing states, the campaign will look to surrogates, family or other forms of campaigning. One major event that may be called off is the next presidential debate scheduled for 15 October. No announcement has been made but decisions would depend on the President’s health.
The diagnosis will also be used as an attempt to disparage the President’s handling of the pandemic. It was he who said at the last debate:
“I don’t wear a mask like him… every time you see him, he’s got a mask.”
This was reemphasised by his campaign events which have breached the COVID-19 safety requirements of various states. This will be the Democrats “I told you so” moment, with Trump ignoring the CDC advice on the pandemic.
However, Democrats will need to be careful with their response. If they go too harsh, they will look unsympathetic to the President and First Lady who are unwell. If they go too soft, then they will be seen to ignore the issue. The Biden Campaign has a fine balancing act it must find.
Lastly, the topic on everyone’s lips at the Capitol – how will this impact the confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court? The delays caused by the recent tests, which have also involved members of Congress, mean that the vote will likely occur during the lame-duck session of Congress (after the election and before the commencement of the new Congress). This will mean Trump may need to wait longer for his nominee to be confirmed.
Overall, this throws another spanner into the work. It will be interesting to see how this impacts the polls and whether a nation will be sympathetic to the President or whether they will shift allegiances due to his failure to follow COVID-19 advice.
