Setting the scene:
Since its inception, Russia has had the same geopolitical objective: push the West out and put as much distance between itself and the threatening great powers of Europe.
Whilst this strategy has served Russia incredibly well by allowing it to reach its peak during Soviet Union times to extend its sphere of influence all the way to East Germany, for the many nations this meant subjugation – resulting in a loss of their sovereignty, freedom and prosperity. Such suffering left deep scars on many Eastern European nations, both physically and mentally. Even today, much of the energy, transport and communications infrastructure of Eastern Europe runs from East to West. A system that has left many Eastern European nations poorer and incredibly reliant on Russia. To add to the concern, recent action in Ukraine and Georgia highlights a resurgent Russia seeking to rebuild its lost Soviet sphere of influence. Such acts have stirred up painful memories in Eastern European states, prompting a multilateral response fearing they may become Russia’s next target.
What is the three seas initiative?
The Three Seas Initiative (TSI) was founded in 2016 by twelve European Union states (Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia) and stretches from the Baltic, Adriatic and Black Seas – hence the name. On the surface it is an investment fund and economic forum with the “objective of bringing together economic entities interested in economic cooperation aimed at enhancing economic bonds within the region”. The initiative currently has 48 proposed infrastructure projects in the works stretching across the energy, digital and transportation domains.
Underneath however, lays a significant geopolitical objective beyond just prosperity – the intermarium idea. The intermarium project has been a political ambition of many politicians throughout Eastern Europe in past centuries to establish a political bloc capable of containing Russia and other foreign aggressors from subjugating and stripping Eastern Europe states of their sovereignty.
In the contemporary world sovereignty is increasingly based upon economic might rather than military might. North Korea might have over a million soldiers, but its abysmal economy has left it nothing more than a vassal state of China. These twelve states of Eastern Europe understand this all too well which is why their dependence on Russia for energy and other imports is a major threat; leaving them at the mercy of Russia who can use this economic influence to bully these states into doing what it wants.
Behind the scenes: the geopolitical implications and purpose of the project
As previously mentioned, the era of the Soviet Union left physical scars on Eastern European states particularly for its infrastructure which now consists of a network that connects nations from East to West, leaving them with no other option than relying on Russia economically.
The Three Seas Initiative is attempting to rectify this problem by promoting the creation of infrastructure that will connect the twelve states from North to South. Many of the projects include gas pipelines, roads, railways and telecommunications infrastructure such as 5G and fibre optic cables. One key project is the Bulgaria-Romania-Hungary-Austria (BRUA) pipeline, which would supply Romanian Black Sea gas to the region – reducing the bloc’s dependence on Russian gas to fuel their individual economies. The initiative has received significant backing from foreign partners who are looking for opportunities to limit Russian influence and aggression in the European domain. The European Union Investment and Structural Funds pledged to spend 2.5 billion euros by 2020 on infrastructure projects in the initiative and the U.S.A pledged US$ 1 billion in 2020 on the project, as it hopes to secure markets for its ever expanding liquified natural gas exports.
Issues at hand:
The initiative is not a guaranteed success however, it seeks to eventually spend US$500 billion to rectify the infrastructure needs of region and has thus so far only received about US$ 150 billion. Furthermore, Russia is unlikely to sit idly by and watch its plans to re-establish its dominance in Eastern Europe go up in smoke. Whilst military action is unlikely, more covert attempts to stop the project can still be made through other means such as inciting political instability through propaganda campaigns on social media or cyberattacks – methods Russia has grown adapt in using during the past decade.
However, the ongoing pandemic may provide a perfect opportunity to overcome these issues. The pandemic-induced economic crisis is likely to keep Russia distracted with domestic issues at home drawing away resources and its focus. Additionally, the twelve states in the initiative likely to engage in economic stimulus to help their economies recover may take advantage of record-low interest rates to increase spending on the project to fuel economic growth through infrastructure spending.
Final Thoughts:
The Three Seas Initiative is grand in its ambitions. It aims to achieve what Eastern Europe has failed to do for centuries – contain Russia and reach a level of economic prosperity equitable to that of Western Europe. In politics grand ambitions such as these rarely pan out as planned and often end up in the dustbin of history. The issues over funding, interference by foreign powers and potentially even corruption within the member states themselves are significant and their potential to derail the whole thing should not be underestimated. However, what should equally not be underestimated is the driving force behind the project – the economic incentive. Unlike in the past, this initiative is not merely a military or political alliance that can easily be broken with the right leverage, it is an economic restructuring of Eastern Europe that can potentially see a sum of economies already worth over US$2 trillion massively expand their size by eliminating an infrastructure deficit that has the added bonus of freeing them from potentially harmful Russian influence. Only time will tell whether the project will succeed.
