Setting the Stage:
For millenia the Nile River has seen numerous civilizations rise and fall along its riverbanks, and for many, the Nile River was the source of life itself. Even today this fact remains true for the nations of Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan; each of whom depend on the river’s precious water to fuel their economies and guarantee the prosperity of their peoples.
Despite its grandeur, the Nile River is no stranger to crisis, and Ethiopia’s construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile River which began in 2011, is quickly becoming its greatest contemporary crisis as it nears completion.
The monumental project is a significant achievement for Ethiopia, being the largest dam in Africa it will hold approximately 74 billion cubic metres of water and generate an estimated 6,000 MW of electricity. Ethiopia is hoping the dam will further its rapidly industrialising and growing economy by helping it connect 65% of its citizens living without electricity to the electric grid. Largely funded by the Ethiopians themselves through purchasing government-issued bonds, it is also a source of great national pride, as Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed claimed GERD is a symbol of “sovereignty and unity”.
Such monumental construction does not however come without equally great consequences.
GERD is expected to significantly reduce the water flow into the Egyptian section of the Nile River; as Egypt receives 85% of its river flow from the Blue Nile tributary in the Northern Ethiopian Highlands upon which GERD is being built. The stakes are incredibly high for Egypt, with a population of 100 million that is growing by nearly 1 million every six months, it is already facing water scarcity and any reduction in the Nile River’s flow could have devastating consequences for the state. Egypt’s own Irrigation Ministry predicted that for every reduction of 1 billion cubic meters of water flow lost, there would be 200,000 acres of farmland lost and the livelihoods of 1 million people negatively impacted.
Sudan in contrast is likely to gain from GERD’s construction. As it is hoped the dam will stop serious annual flooding that occurs regularly in August and September, as well as provide a much needed source of electricity, with Ethiopia promising Sudan priority in the purchasing of electricity generated by the dam.
A Powder Keg waiting to explode:
As each state has much to gain or lose from GERD’s construction, this has set the stage for an intense geopolitical dispute.
Over recent years there has been a war of words between Egypt and Ethiopia. Notorious former Egyptian Intelligence Head Omar Suleiman upon hearing GERD’s announcement threatened to “send a jet to bomb the dam” These words are not simple fiery rhetoric, as the Egyptian military certainly possesses the capability to carry out such an attack through its long-range cruise missiles, according to Mahmoud Gamal, a researcher at the Egyptian Institute for Political and Strategic Studies. Ethiopia has stood firm however, with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed telling fellow lawmakers that “no force could prevent” Ethiopia from finishing GERD. For now however, no armed conflict has emerged as the states are more in a disagreement over the rate at which GERD will be filled rather than its outright existence. Ethiopia wishes to see the dam filled within 5-7 years to more quickly see its economic benfits, whereas Egypt wants a timeframe of 12-20 years to minimise the economic damage. It is possible that Egypt has transitioned from its initial position of outright rejection of the dam to trying to minimise its impacts due to Ethiopia’s growing geopolitical power.
Despite intense disagreement the situation did look increasingly hopeful early this year, as there have been genuine efforts to come to a diplomatic solution. This was seen through the U.S. led brokered agreement between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia. However, Ethiopia walked away from the talks after accusing the U.S. of favouring Egypt and believing the deal would force it to relinquish sovereignty over its own Nile River water. Despite this setback, all is not yet lost for a peaceful resolution. William Davison, senior Ethiopia analyst at the International Crisis Group outlined that “[Ethiopia is] not suggesting that the meeting has been canceled forever, but only that they need more time to prepare for it”. Additionally, Sudan has stepped forward to mediate future talks between the two disputing states, with deputy head of Sudan’s Sovereign Council, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo claiming Sudan would help the states “reach an agreement”.
Even so, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic will serve to only exacerbate the issue. Egypt and Ethiopia are desperate to rescue their economies suffering from measures being implemented globally to contain the virus are likely to attempt to slow or accelerate GERD’s development respectively. Ethiopia which has already seen its GDP growth forecast for 2020 slashed from 6.2% to 3.2% by the International Monetary Fund is strengthening its commitment. As evident by Ethiopia’s Prime Minister publicly stating, “the current coronavirus outbreak should not hinder [Ethiopia] from completing the project”. This suggests that Ethiopia and Egypt might as a result of circumstance, may now be in a much weaker to compromise and make concessions for the sake of peace, increasing the risk of conflict breaking out over the water dispute.
What a solution would require:
With the increased chance of a conflict on the horizon, the question now stands, what will a peaceful solution require? Any effective resolution is going to need Egypt to abandon its policy of trying to exert supremacy of the Nile River and instead adopt a more cooperative approach with other states through which the river runs. Currently, Egypt relies on two colonial era treaties (both the 1929 and 1959 Nile Waters Agreement) to justify its total control over the river. In these treaties the entire annual flow of the Nile River was agreed to be shared between Egypt and Sudan at 55.5 and 18.5 billion cubic meters respectively. Ethiopia despite contributing approximately 85% of the Nile River Flow is not entitled to any of the Nile’s resources under the agreement. Expectedly, as Ethiopia has grown in power it has rejected the treaty and will likely not sign onto any agreement that does not acknowledge its rightful share to the Nile’s resources. Additionally, any cooperation would require Egypt’s large Aswan Dam and Ethiopia’s GERD to work in tandem with one another to ensure a stable river flow. However, there is still some hope if no diplomatic agreement is formed. One study found that Egypt may be able to completely offset the loss of water caused by GERD through significantly improving its own water management to reduce water wastage[1]. However, this is all subject to increasingly harsh and chaotic climate conditions that are impacting river flow, making it possible that any solution formed may break down in the long-term as the situation evolves.
Hopefully cooperation will prevail and the two disputing states will come to a peaceful resolution that sees the resources of the Nile River fairly shared, and its natural wonder protected.
[1] Walaa Y. El-Nashar & Ahmed H. Elyamany. (2018). Managing risks of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Egypt. Ain Shams Engineering Journal, 2383-2388. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asej.2017.06.004
