The world is worried about Poland.
The ruling Law and Justice party (PiS) have been blamed for the country’s deteriorating democracy as it blatantly undermines Poland’s democratic system to gain more power with Poland’s opposition parties facing an increasingly uphill battle to restore Poland’s once strong democracy. After winning the battle over the postponement of the presidential election, the opposition now must face a well-entrenched incumbent with control of the country’s lower house. Thus, the people of Poland will hold their breath, hopefully, on a second election night as the election comes into full swing in the coming months. At stake is the last chance to weaken PiS’s grip on power or risk further damage to Polish democracy.
Post-Soviet Politics and Donald Tusk’s Tenure
Poland’s democracy is very young and only emerged in 1989 with the country becoming one of the first Eastern European states to topple communism. Poland began yearning for democracy from early 1980 onwards and Polish unions would lead the vanguard of democratic movements as they launched strikes that would force the communist government to the table. The final blow would come from the political movement ‘solidarity’ that was the formal coalition that competed with communist parties in the 1989 elections. Although the elections weren’t completely free, the coalition would win seats they were allowed to compete in and eventually a new democratic system of government would be established, and modern Poland was born.
Polish democracy reached its zenith under Donald Tusk’s tenure from 2007-2014. The charismatic and pro-European leader swept into power in the 2007 Polish Legislative Elections as his Civic Coalition (KO) party won 42% of the vote to the previous PiS government’s 24%, becoming the country’s 14th Prime Minister. With this strength, he capitalised on the country’s recent European Union membership in 2004 as Poland’s economy became one of the strongest in the EU, as it was the only one to avoid recession during the 2008 financial crisis. As a result, Tusk would become the first and only Prime Minister to be re-elected as his majority was virtually untouched in the 2011 election. Tusk eventually left to become the President of the European Council and in his absence, the Civic Coalition fell apart.
The 2015 Elections and the Rise of PiS
In context, PiS or Law and Justice is a right wing party founded by former Solidarity leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski and his brother who tragically perished in a plane crash during his tenure as the President of Poland. Kaczynski, currently the party chairman and ultimate kingmaker, would continue to lead the party well into the country’s contemporary political history. In fact, the tragedy had the effect of granting him unprecedented political strength. He would cultivate a conspiracy that the polish political elite worked with the Russians to murder his brother. The resulting political narrative was clear, only his party could defeat the liberal elite leeching off Poland’s successful economy and protect against Russia. Underlying this was religious fervour that entrenched the party’s conservative and nationalistic values.
This strength was first seen in May of 2015 when PiS backed candidate Andrzej Duda defeated KO aligned incumbent Bronisław Komorowski. The election was very close (51.5%-48.5%) and Duda’s triumph was considered an upset given his poor performance in first round polling. Later in October, the party achieved the first absolute majority since 1991 in the legislative elections, winning 235 of the 460 seats in the Sejm (lower house), alongside taking a supermajority in the Senate with 61 out of 100 seats. By this point, PiS held unprecedented power as they held the Sejm, Senate and the Presidency. What followed was a power grab.
The Erosion of Polish Democracy
The attack on Poland’s democratic institutions came when PiS pushed controversial legislation which amounted to a hostile takeover of the judiciary. The party moved to steadily assert greater control over all aspects of Poland’s judiciary. Specifically, the party would stack out the country’s Constitutional Court and undermine the Supreme court. Indeed, this would be illegal under Poland’s constitution but PiS’ grip on power ensured no effective check to enforce its provisions. The party passed further measures that led to the purging of 11,300 civil servants and high-level military officials that were deemed ‘unreformed enemies of the state.’ This consolidation of power has significantly weakened the functions of Polish democracy. In fact, the 2020 Freedom Index Poland’s democracy fell into the ‘Semi-Consolidated’ category, a far cry from its high status as a well-established democracy in years prior.
The 2019 Election, a Glimmer of Hope
In October of 2019, the Sejm and Senate held their elections with PiS expecting to maintain their majorities. While their majority in the Sejm was virtually untouched due to their new United Right alliance with other right-wing parties, the opposition managed to narrowly take control of the Senate. This is significant as it broke part of PiS’ grip on power, allowing the opposition some leverage in the country’s future deliberations. However, while PiS remains mostly united, the Civic Coalition now has to share the opposition mantle with other democratic parties such as Lewica (The Left) and the Polish Coalition alongside four independent senators. Despite this, control of the Senate would prove useful in the upcoming presidential battle later in mid-2020.
The 2020 Presidential Election
Initially, Duda was expected to face the first round of his re-election bid in May 2020. Moreover, he was handedly re-endorsed by PiS to run again as he enjoyed high approval ratings and a significant poll lead. However, as the COVID-19 pandemic spread across the globe there was significant controversy over how to adapt the election to the situation. PiS attempted to press on with the original May 10th date, however, attempts to set a postal vote for the date was rejected by the opposition controlled senate. Faced with increasing pressure from intense criticism by both allied parties and opposition parties regarding safety concerns, PiS eventually moved the election date and June 28th was agreed upon for the first round.
Data Analysis: First Round
The election date change was a significant victory for the opposition as polling suggested Duda would win a landslide victory due to the rally around the flag effect caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, alongside the boycott by opposition parties in protest of the election date. For example, Figure 1.2 shows that the polling averages in April show Duda well above the 50% threshold to prevent a second round with the KO candidate trailing ~49% behind him.
In fact, with the movement of the election date and a new KO candidate in Rafał Trzaskowski, the Civic Coalition saw a significant boost in its polling numbers. Figure 1.3’s moving averages at the end of May display Duda’s lead in first round polling shrinking rapidly, making a second round inevitable. With a month left until the first round, the Warsaw mayor and progressive advocate has indeed turned things around for the Civic Coalition.
Data Analysis: Second Round
Assuming that Duda and Trzaskowski both win the first round in late June, they face a genuinely competitive race in the second round of the election. It seems that Trzaskowski’s rebound has translated into second round polling as well. During Duda’s height in April, even if the Civic Coalition did make the second round, they faced a significant disadvantage. As figure 2.1 displays, the KO faced a landslide defeat with Duda potentially winning with a ~14% lead.
As of May, this once insurmountable lead has shrunk to a statistical tie in the most recent polling average. Figure 2.2 reveals that it is entirely possible that Trzaskowski could be elected president. This new strength is certainly good news for the Polish opposition, however, a lot can still happen between now and election day. However, If the mayor wins the presidency, the opposition will have a chance to halt the damage done to Poland’s institutions and provide a greater check on PiS.
Conclusion – Poland’s Last Chance
Poland is faced with an existential crisis through it’s ruling party’s relentless pursuit of power which erodes the fundamentals of its democratic structure. However, the fall of Poland’s democracy can still be halted. PiS’ defeat in the Senate revealed that while their grip on power is formidable, it is not inevitable. The opposition have been given a chance to obtain a greater check on the ruling party’s power, but only time will tell if this is the turning point or the final nail for Poland’s once vibrant democracy.
