Britain’s Looming Crisis
A quiet ultimatum creeps into British politics as the question of an independent Scotland remains unanswered. The very idea of a nation breaking away from the United Kingdom poses an existential threat to Britain’s national identity, more so than Brexit did. Arguably, were Scotland to leave it may be the straw that finishes Britain’s long fall from the height of the British empire only a century ago. Given this gloomy context, this article will briefly look into the recent history of Scottish independence to add onto analysis of the possibility of a breakaway Scotland.
Devolution and the Rise of Scottish Governance.
In recent history, Scotland has earned a level of self-governance after a long fight with previous British governments. The Scottish parliament would mark a major turning point in the matter of Scottish representation in the British political system, only a little over two decades old, it owes its existence to the newly empowered Labour Government in 1997 which won with a promise to deliver devolution in its manifesto. The Scottish Parliament was approved through a referendum In September of 1997, and established in May of 1999.
Scotland’s parliament, while being a mechanism of Scottish self-governance, would emerge to be the platform for steadily growing pro-independence movement to push its agenda to the fold. The vanguard of Scottish nationalism would be the Scottish National Party (SNP), a party dating back to the 1930s, in the Devolution era has emerged as the most powerful political party in Scottish politics.
The First Referendum, a simpler time
The first major showing of this rising power was when Scotland had its first brush with independence. In 2011, the SNP won a majority in the Scottish parliament under Alex Salmond with a promise to pursue Scottish Independence in their policy platform. Negotiations between the new First Minister and Prime Minister David Cameron agreed on a simple ‘yes or no’ referendum to settle the issue in what was termed the ‘Edinburgh Agreement’. In late 2014 the referendum delivered a convincing rejection of independence. One of the deciding factors in delivering the ‘No’ campaign victory was Scotland’s membership in the European Union as European Commission officials made it clear that any pathway for an Independent Scotland in the European Union would be ‘extremely difficult if not impossible’. In that sense, Brexit reopened the case.
Nicola Sturgeon and Brexit
With the result of the referendum, Alex Salmond immediately resigned but made it clear it wasn’t the end of the Independence movement. Nicola Sturgeon, previously the Deputy First Minister took over the position as well as control over the SNP. Nicola Sturgeon would lead the SNP to take control over almost all of the Scottish seats in the 2015 UK General election, sending 56 MPs to London, a record showing for the party and signalled strength from the new leader. This is important because it showed the referendum result didn’t damage the independence movement but instead served to empower it.
Arguably, the decision for the United Kingdom to begin withdrawing from the European Union as a result of the 2016 Membership Referendum is what has revived debate around Scotland’s place in the United Kingdom. Moreover, Nicola Sturgeon has used her strength as the highest ranking Scottish official to push for a second independence referendum now known as ‘IndyRef2’. The underlying argument is that the situation regarding an independent Scotland has changed, Scots voted 62% in favour of remaining in the EU, and therefore should be given another chance to reconsider the question of independence.
Current Trends
With the United Kingdom officially withdrawn from the European Union, polling data since the beginning of 2020 has shown a very even split between those who want to remain or leave the UK. In fact, a recent Survation poll done on the 3rd of February shows an even split between voters, a YouGov poll at the end of January revealed a statistical tie in favour of independence, bolstered by those who voted Remain and by those who did not vote in either the independence referendum or the Brexit referendum. The conclusion to draw from this is that the support for independence has been bolstered by a sense that Scottish and British interests no longer align and any second referendum is expected to be more contentious than the first one.
Consequences for the world
On a local level, if Scotland were to leave, the United Kingdom as we know it would end. The existential crisis of the British identity would deepen as the reality of an independent Scotland would encourage other breakaways from the UK, such as Irish Reunification. There is a clear incentive for London to avoid that possibility at all costs. On a more regional level, Scotland’s entrance into the EU may become less difficult than touted during the 2014 referendum.
Despite the economic complications, an Independent Scotland may be the EU’s chance to regain parts of the British economy and leverage over what remains of the UK. In fact, Spain, which was used as an argument against independence as it was expected to veto any Scottish EU membership, has become warmer to the idea of independence after the 2016 referendum.
The rising prospect of an Independent Scotland has remained contentious throughout contemporary history. This is not an issue that will go away anytime soon and will probably be the next existential crisis the United Kingdom has to face. If there is any take-away from this article: it is a warning of a distant, but looming political crisis for the UK.
