HOW WRONG WILL THE POLLS BE THIS TIME?
To those of us who are more familiar with international politics, it should be common knowledge that the Canadian federal elections are coming up and that given recent history political polls can no longer be relied upon. Regardless, on Monday the 21st of October, the Canadians that choose to vote will head to their local polling location and cast their vote for the party of their choice. In the last election, just over 68% of the population voted, with the majority (39%) of the vote going to the Canadian Liberal party.
To provide some context for the rest of the article, let’s run through the Canadian major parties. The current party in power is the Canadian Liberal Party. The Liberal party has been in Canada’s longest-serving party and is considered the default party in the Canadian political system. The Party maintains a liberal stance, and they sit in the center to center-left of the political spectrum. Some of their major legislative achievements include the Charter of Rights and Freedoms, the introduction of euthanasia, universal healthcare legislation and the Canada Pension Plan.
Running just behind the Liberals is the Conservative party of Canada. In the 2015 federal elections, the Conservative party came away with 31% of the votes under their then party leader and prime minister, Stephen Harper. They are currently the second most powerful party in Canada and have changed leadership, this time running Andrew Scheer as the candidate for prime minister. The Conservative party sits in the center-right to moderate right-wing on the political spectrum, and as the name suggests, typically adopt conservative stances.
The third ‘major party’ in Canada is the New Democratic Party (NDP). In the 2015 federal election, they received just under 20% of the vote. Currently, Jagmeet Singh is the party leader and the party overall maintains a very liberal stance politically. They are also farther left on the political spectrum that the Liberals.
Now let’s take a look at the three major party leaders, their policies and their controversies. First up is Justin Trudeau, the current Prime Minister and leader of the Liberal party. Trudeau won the election in 2015, with his party running on a platform of improving social welfare systems, combatting climate change and social justice reforms including indigenous rights. Since winning the election, however, Trudeau has had his name marred by a variety of controversies. For instance, just earlier this year, a photograph of Trudeau wearing ‘blackface’ while attending a university party emerged and along with it brought condemnation from the more left-leaning elements of his support base. This is just one example among a litany of other controversies, including the elbowing of NDP member Ruth Ellen Brosseau back in 2016, early in his Prime Ministerial career. Trudeau’s Liberal party has also lost the confidence of environmentally conscious voters after facilitating the passing of legislation to expand the ‘Trans Mountain Pipeline’. This agreed-upon expansion goes against the running platform of the Liberal party, and the plans were even blocked by the Federal Court of Appeal due to not having considered the environmental impact of such a project. These are but a few examples of blunders Trudeau has made during his time in office. However, the Liberal government has made several notable contributions to Canada and fulfilled most of the promises they made during the 2015 election. Marijuana is now legal, Migrant resettlement programs were bolstered and a shift towards a mostly independent Senate were all things that can be attributed to Trudeaus Liberal government. However, over his term in office, Trudeau’s public approval rating has halved, from 60% to 30% and many younger voters have expressed that they no longer had confidence in Trudeau.
Next let’s look at Andrew Scheer, the leader of the Conservative party of Canada. In contrast to Trudeau’s Liberals, Scheer has made it very clear that the Conservative objective is better fiscal policy and less emphasis on economically damaging environmental legislation. Specifically, Scheer intends to reinvigorate the Canadian pipeline system in order to better facilitate transfer of fuel around the nation. This policy is widely condemned by the indigenous population who see it as an encroachment on their land and the environment, Scheer has stated that the indigenous people don’t have to worry as their concerns will be taken into account during project planning phases. Scheer also plans on removing the Carbon Tax instituted by the Trudeau government as it negatively impacts average Canadians. Moreover, the Conservative party has emphasized that the current state of Canadian immigration is undermining the fundamental values that Canada was founded on. If the Conservatives are elected they plan to tighten immigration, placing an emphasis on skilled labor and limit the influx of asylum seekers by closing loopholes in the Safe-Third Country Agreement. However, as with any good politician, Scheer has had his fair share of controversy. Notably, his campaign manager, Hamish Marshall, is a former director at ‘Rebel Media’ a right-wing publication. Scheer has also been accused of pandering to far-right groups, such as the Canadian yellow vests, and his association with media personality, Faith Goldy, who is a self-professed white supremacist. However, regardless of the controversy, the opinion polls show that the Conservative party is holding 32% approval, compared to the Liberal party’s 31%. It is a close race between the two major parties to see who will take the majority vote.
Having spoken about the two major parties it is also important to cover the NDP and their leader Jagmeet Singh. During this election cycle, Singh has garnered favor from all sides of the political race for being able to cope with many overtly racist encounters with calm, inclusive rhetoric. Being the first non-white candidate has had to battle with racial tensions that have been building in Canada and is seen as the ideal person to tackle the issue of racism. He is a staunch environmentalist and his party is committed to stricter environmental policy, in particular, more intense carbon taxation of heavy emitters as well as a $15 billion retrofit of old buildings and creation of a climate bank to invest in renewables. This hardline environmentalist stance has had its repercussions with many opposition members claiming that the NDP cant manage money and will run Canada into a deficit. The party themselves have not offered any concrete stance on budgetary management, rather saying they will balance the budget when it is prudent to do so. The NDP may stand little chance of winning, however, there has been chatter between the party members of a coalition between the NDP and the Liberals. Such a coalition would mean that even if the Conservative party won the majority, they would still be outvoted in the House of Commons and thus won’t is able to pass legislation. Although there has been denial over such a deal, neither party leader has overtly disapproved of the idea, both insisting they want to deny the Conservatives a chance at government.
Canada looks to be gearing up for an election that will either see it continuing down its current liberal path, or reversing and heading back into the era of Conservative leadership. As has been the case in many western countries, the polls should not be taken at face value. Although they currently say that the race is neck and neck, the ultimate result may not reflect the polls at all. Key examples of how the polls have been so wrong can be found in the 2016 US election and the 2019 Australian election. It will be interesting to see how wrong they are at this time.
