The confirmation of the first woman to lead the European Commission in early July was certainly a major accomplishment on its own. However, the rise of Ursula von der Leyen is also the accomplishment of a new player in the realm of European Politics, Emmanuel Macron. Providing insight into the geopolitical power game played by Europe’s two main powers: France and Germany.
THE NEW PRESIDENT
Ursula von der Leyen, the former German Minister of Defence, is a unique figure in politics. First and foremost, she was a medical practitioner by trade and only entered German politics between 1999-2002. In 2003 she was elected to the legislature of Lower Saxony and stayed in this job for two years before she transitioned into federal politics and on Merkel’s insistence entered the Cabinet. On the surface, it’s easy to see her appointment as a win for Angela Merkel as von der Leyen owes much of her career to the outgoing Chancellor. However, the appointment was only decided 384 – 327, the slimmest margin ever cast for the position. This result is less about von der Leyen’s character, rather, is reflective of two ongoing dynamics within the European Union: the diversification of its political landscape; and the ongoing geopolitical game between Merkel and Macron to secure their power within the EU.
STATE OF THE UNION
The European Union underwent a watershed election in late May, presenting a new, diverse yet divided parliament in its conclusion. It is tempting to speak about the rise of the far-right in Europe. However, the populist alliance, Identity and Democracy, simply failed to secure the expected wave of support so many anticipated. Ultimately, the far-right wave was countered by a surge in support for the Liberal pro-EU group ‘Renew Europe’ and the environmentally focused European Greens. Nevertheless, the European Parliament that was returned is a far cry from the two party dominated parliaments of the past. This is the political divide behind the vote regarding Ursula von der Leyen’s presidency, exposing the geopolitical hurdles to her appointment.
DOMESTIC SITUATIONS
Despite the ideological disposition of the European parties, the states of the European Union play a large part in the parliamentary process. This is because the political groupings are essentially an alliance of national parties. These include the European People’s Party (EPP) comprised of conservative and Christian-democratic parties or the defunct Alliance of Liberals and Democrats (ALDE), now ‘Renew Europe’ comprising of liberal-democratic parties. Therefore, as Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron herald from these parties respectively, the European elections have acted as a sort of mid-term review for both leaders.
Merkel’s CDU/CSU, despite coming first in popular vote, faced a significant swing against it alongside her coalition partner the SPD. More traditional conservative parties like CDU, aligned with the EPP, are facing similar results across Europe. With a rapidly rising German Green party in the polls regarding the next federal election in 2021, Merkel’s departure as leader of her party and of Germany, and the subsequent rise in support towards the far-right Alternative for Germany regionally and federally, the long-serving Chancellor is in a significantly weaker position than her earlier years as Europe’s ‘de-facto leader’.
This is where Emmanuel Macron’s party ‘En Marche!’ becomes important. It actually fared relatively well as it still came second in a narrow margin with the populist National Rally receiving a smaller share of the vote than it did in 2014 (National Rally 23.41%- En Marche 22.41%). Considering President Macron’s low approval ratings and fierce resistance to his domestic agenda as seen in the Yellow Vest Movement, arguably the result could’ve been worse. Macron would consolidate this alliance when the ALDE rebranded under Renew Europe to match Macron’s style of politics. Therefore, he has gained a significant bloc in the European Parliament, granting him a stronger hand when it comes to the Commission’s presidency.
CONSEQUENCES
This new-found strength was flexed when the liberal bloc undermined EPP leader Manfred Weber in his bid for the presidency, asserting the desire for a less partisan choice for the Commission. This manoeuvre boldly places the liberals, and Macron, as the king-makers for any decision regarding the EU executive. On the surface, von der Leyen is a Merkel ally and the Chancellor still gains from this appointment as she is a party ally. However, von der Leyen owes Macron greatly as without liberal support the social democratic bloc, second in numbers, would’ve voted her down.
The new Commission President is definitely pro-European, but has had to rely on greater French influence than the outgoing. While this is legacy-consolidating Merkel should be comfortable with, it also points to the rise of Macron as Europe’s next leader.
