EDITORIAL –
Pragmatism needs to take precedence in the myriad of politics and electioneering – opinion polls cannot be relied on. Last Wednesday, we published an analysis of the election looking at the state of the polls. We wrote the following:
As Keating’s re-election in 1993 taught us, don’t speak too soon. The recent weeks have seen polls narrowing while the PM has remained more popular than his long-term opponent. If the opinions polls and political pundits are correct, Labor will win 77 seats, just scrapping in with a majority. However, anything can happen on election day. Just ask Donald Trump!
Pivot Editorial
Wednesday 15 May 2019
In recent years, with the use of a diverse array of technology to measure voters’ intentions and with greater polarization in politics, opinions polls have become extremely skewed. While it may be argued that the current two-party-preferred vote is just within the margin of error, this is not true in all states. Queensland for example was a bloodbath for Labor although Newspoll predicted a 3% swing to Labor. Instead, the LNP in Queensland increased its TPP vote by over 3%, attaining over 57% of the vote. So, there was a 3% swing but pollsters got it the wrong way around.
This is not an issue alone in Australia. The first recent error we have seen was in the 2015 UK General Election. Pollsters thought Labour would get above 270 votes and the Conservatives would decrease to under 300. Instead, the Conservatives increased its vote and won an additional 24 seats, forming a majority government. Similar mistakes were made with the Brexit opinion polls but these were not as incorrect as the preceding election as they were within the margin of error.
So to all political parties, there is one clear message – DON’T RELY ON OPINION POLLS. To paraphrase Scott Morrison – “believe in miracles.”
POLITICAL RAMIFICATION – BUSINESS AS USUAL?
If a full term occurs, we will see a Coalition Government in office for a further three years. With crucial seats still to be called, this could take the form of a majority government. Yet, we will learn in the next few days what the chamber will look like. As of this morning, Malcolm Turnbull’s former seat of Wentworth was called for Liberal Dave Sharma, flipping it back from Independent Kerryn Phelps who only won the seat at a by-election in October. Seats like Chisholm and Macquarie will go down to the wire and could see Scott Morrison with at most 78 seats, something inconceivable at the beginning of the election.
Former PM Tony Abbott’s loss in Warringah was a huge blow to the Liberal Party, with Abbott winning nine elections in the seat over 25 years. While this is a shock, it also means the PM has one less obstacle in Parliament. Multiple commentators can no longer comment on Abbott being a controversial shadow over the parliamentary Liberal Party. Along with senior Liberals retiring and no former PMs sitting in the chamber, Scott Morrison now has the opportunity to shape the government without any possible challenges.
WHAT HAPPENS TO LABOR NOW?
Labor were expecting to enter government, and Bill Shorten to walk into the Lodge. Instead, it will be another few years of opposition for the party. Any ALP supporters who expected a victory should remember to not take anything for granted. Nevertheless, the loss has already hit home with Shorten’s resignation. Bill Shorten has served as Labor leader for five-and-a-half years and should be commended for steadying the boat after the Gillard/Rudd years which saw much instability and disunity. This is a hard task for any leader and this should be a great legacy for Shorten. Yet, his lack of popularity and a broad policy platform seems to have cost Labor their chance at government.
Labor will now have its first leadership election since 2013 which will include a vote of all members across the country. With Anthony Albanese to run for the position and potentially others such as former Treasurer Chris Bowen, Labor will need to maintain unity to form a strong opposition in the next parliament. Yet, they will need to decide if they go back to their traditional base or further their progressive values.
Member for Hunter Joel Fitzgibbon said:
“It just appears to me like the electorate wasn’t quite ready for that progressive approach, and the result is very obvious.”
Joel Fitzgibbon, Member for Hunter
18 May 2019
Does this mean the Labor Party should go back to its roots and look to blue collar workers or should it continue on its current path?
PALMER’S MILLIONS WASTED – A BAD NIGHT FOR MINOR
The Palmer United Australia Party (UAP) failed to win a single seat in either chamber, attaining over 3.30% of the vote for a cost of approximately $60 million. This was a disastrous result for the UAP and instead only helped smear the Labor Party while providing news outlets with a major talking point for the past few months – do we all remember his app and his campaign songs?
Instead, One Nation did better than we thought. They attained approximately 3% of the vote, with over 8.5% in Queensland alone. These helped the LNP in the TPP count. Nevertheless, this didn’t help them win additional Senate seats, with Malcolm Roberts still hanging on in his fight for the sixth Queensland Senate seat.
Overall, this was a bad night for minor parties in the Senate. Derryn Hinch, Fraser Anning, Brian Burston, and Duncan Spender have all lost their seats. Additionally, the Nationals still do not know if they will have a Senator from NSW, although it looks like they will. The story for the Senate is the return of Jacqui Lambie. After losing her seat due to the Citizenship Crisis, the down-to-earth dinky-doi Aussie seems to be back representing Tasmania and she has a clear message – she wants to be treated “a hell of a lot better.”
Still, not party has a Senate majority so the cross-bench, although reduced, will still play a pivotal role in passing legislation.
FINAL NOTE – TIME TO GET OVER THE POLITICAL IMPASSE
The election is over now. Labor lost what many called the unlosable election, Morrison is to form a majority government and many pollsters are still shocked about how wrong they were. After such a divisive election, it is time to end the polarisation of politics. This final message regards the treatment of many candidates and campaigners who have a passion for politics and are dedicated to serving our country. We saw a stabbing in Warringah, attack on a One Nation campaigner, posters defaced, and general rudeness from all sides. Instead of such barbaric acts, it is time for us to come together to work in the national interest and in the Voltairean spirit respect our differences. We are all Australians and aspire to make our country a better place. Petty fighting and dirty tactics should not be tolerated. Let this be a reset for electioneering and politics with us instead respecting our differences and seeking to reach a compromise.
