In June, I wrote with some caution about the Trump-Kim Summit in Singapore. Warning readers not to be overly optimistic, I took into account the realities of Trumpian politics and the contrasting attitudes of the Kim regime. Although many saw the meeting as a sign of hope, we should not be deceived by fake smiles and quasi-majestic pageantry. Instead, we now have a situation where the U.S. President walked out of negotiations, with parties even disagreeing about their disagreements. Sadly for us in 2019 this is not at all shocking. But what comes next is a different story.
The second summit began with lower expectations than the first. Since June’s meeting, the Trump Administration expected rapid denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula. Hopes for the denuclearisation were represented through the visits of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to North Korea and the appointment of Stephen Biegun as the U.S. Special Representative for North Korea. Yet, the New York Times quickly diminished the hopes of the Administration by reporting on the “great deception” orchestrated by the Kim Regime as they were developing sixteen other missile sites while only one base was destroyed. North Korea and the U.S. remained at cross roads throughout late-2018 as Kim sought the lifting of all sanctions while Secretary Pompeo would not budge. This set the stage for a most hostile and less jovial meeting of two of the world’s most unorthodox leaders.
Both leaders acted more pragmatically and cautiously than they did in the first summit. This was evident with President Trump stating:
“I’m in no rush. Speed is not important… I can’t speak necessarily for today, but I can say… I know we are going to have fantastic success with respect to chairman Kim and North Korea…”
Kim replied in a similar manner, indicating:
“It’s too early to tell, but I wouldn’t say that I’m pessimistic…”
Yet, the situation took a nose-dive at an unforeseen pace. The working lunch was cancelled without notice with the press pool ushered out of the room to utter disappointment. This was followed by the cancellation of the signing ceremony, reminiscent of the scenes from the meeting in Singapore only 8 months ago.
Instead, Trump returned to his hotel for his own media conference. In this, Trump noted that Kim wanted all sanctions lifted. In response, Trump noted the mentality for his response:
“You have to be prepared to walk. I wanted to do it right, rather than do it fast.”
This was a supposed lie according to Ri Yong-ho, the North Korean Foreign Minister, who in a rare media conference, asserted they only sought a partial lifting of sanctions for the complete dismantlement of the Yongbyon nuclear facility. It was here that optimism for a denuclearised peninsula completed faded, with the Foreign Minister stating:
Given the current level of trust between North Korea and the U.S., this [deal] was the maximum step for denuclearisation we could offer [and] this kind of opportunity may never come again.”
Trump now returns to Washington D.C. to controversy regarding the testimony of Michael Cohen to the House Oversight Committee, the main investigative body of the U.S. House of Representatives. On top of threats to his National Emergency regarding the border wall and the Government Shutdown which marred most of January, the unconventional president has had a less than ideal start to the year with this failed summit adding to his woes. Although it is debatable whether Trump did the right thing, the abrupt end to negotiations demonstrates the difficulty the President faces in trying to resolve this issue which has plagued the region for decades. This raises the question: was he out of his depth?
I would be lying if I said this was only detrimental for Trump. Kim hoped for economic relief through the end of the tumultuous sanctions imposed on his regime. Although North Korea claimed to be more open to negotiations than Trump claimed, the young-leader’s hopes for a legacy of economic growth and prosperity seems to be going the way of the historical dustbin.
But at the end of the day, Trump’s unique “art of the deal” style negotiating skills seems to have resulted in the same empty-handedness of former, more conventional, presidents. Although Trump can try and blame Kim or rebuke President Xi of China, who could supposedly help “a little more”, he is a main factor. Kim for the second time received a meeting with a U.S. president, an honour not before bestowed by former presidents, and Trump has received very little in return.
What comes next? Will there be another meeting? Or will Trump abandon them and delegate the task to seasoned diplomats and other State Department officials? It may have all ended in a handshake as claimed by Trump, but it did not change anything whatsoever.
