When we come to the end of a year, we tend to reflect on the joyous memories and look forward to a prosperous new year. However, I have witnessed in awe the volatility of the current geopolitical landscape and remain realistic as to what the future will bring. It is not right to wear rose-coloured glasses and tell you that this was the greatest year. Nay, I cannot say it was the worst, far from it. But 2018 has seen major policy shifts that will have massive ramifications for the foreseeable future. I cannot predict what will happen, evident in the many prediction failures from political pundits over the last few years. Nevertheless, 2019 seems to shaping up to be quite an interesting and crucial year. In order to see what the next year may bring, we must review some of the events of the preceding 12 months.
Mr. Trump Goes to Singapore
During Pivot’s first edition, President Trump did both the expected and unexpected by withdrawing from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (Iran Deal) while also meeting with North Korea’s Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un. With the former foreseen by many politicians, it still came as a blow to the United States’ standing abroad and garnered much opposition, especially from American allies. This contrasted the bilateral summit Trump had with Kim, the first for any sitting U.S. President, a monumental shift in Administration’s attitude. In September 2017, Trump himself told the UN General Assembly of the dangers that the “rocket man” posed and that the U.S. was ready for any threats they presented, implying that warfare was a possibility. It was then unthinkable that the unorthodox leader of the free world would meet with the leader of one of the most isolated countries.
“We should value this opportunity so that the scars between the South and North could be healed.”
Kim Jong-un
April 26, 2018
Whilst beneficial to US-North Korean relations, the previous few months has also seen the warming of relations between the North and South. With Kim and President Moon meeting at Panmunjom, the delegations decided to reconcile past grievances, attempt to end the Korean War with a formal peace treaty, and denuclearise the entire peninsula. With multiple meetings, 2018 has marked a new period for inter-Korean relations. While we need to wait and see the results of negotiations and whether they come into fruition, this acts as a symbol for greater harmony during such testing times. We only have to look to the joint-Korean team at the Winter Olympics and the return of fallen U.S. military personnel for optimism.
However, sanctions remain, and as long as they are needed, tensions will be inflamed. This was evident with Pyongyang stating the U.S. was using “unilateral and gangster-like demands for denuclearisation.” Moreover, it still seems North Korea is continuing its nuclear program with multiple meetings delayed as a result. It seems meetings have stagnated and although there is still an abundance hope, don’t automatically think 2019 will see a resolution. 2018 has laid a basis for talks, but there is still a long way to go.
Australian Politics – Another Spill on Election Year Eve
Australian politics was characterised by another leadership spill. While it is not my position to criticise or judge individual politicians, overall this makes Australia seem unstable on the international stage. In the span of 11 years, we have had six changes in PM, only two of which were by election. Such instability was pronounced when Trump asked the affectionately known ScoMo why Turnbull had been removed as leader.
Furthermore, our own constitutional framework continued to take blow after blow with the citizenship crisis leading to five by-elections (the sixth brought on by the resignation of Tim Hammond due to family reasons and the seventh by the resignation of Malcolm Turnbull). While the by-elections caused by the citizenship crisis did not result in changes to the numbers in the House of Representatives, they continued to highlight both how pathetic it was that this provision was overlooked by candidates and their staff, but also how out-of-date aspects of our constitution are in a more globalised world. Going into 2019, it is unlikely we will see change to this qualification in our constitution.
Next year, Australians will head to the polls. As we have learnt over the past few years, opinion polls aren’t always to be trusted. Nay, we should be cautious whenever hearing projections so far out. Although it is widely expected for Labor to form the next government, especially since the Coalition lost its majority, much can change leading up to May. With an election in New South Wales, another budget, and months of major news headlines, polls can easily flip.
Brexit – Not Long Till The Day of Reckoning
Many pundits didn’t expect Theresa May to last through 2018. However, as I have stated in previous articles, her political shrewdness should not be understated. Theresa May, against all odds, has produced a withdrawal agreement in conjunction with the other EU members. This is not an endorsement or a criticism of her deal, but 12 months ago many people would not have found the prospect of a deal feasible. The Northern Irish border was negotiated, a divorce cost was finalised, and immigration was tackled, all summarised in a 585-page deal and 26-page political declaration.
Nevertheless, she has had to face a barrage of threats from her own party, parliament and the people. She survived a motion of no confidence in her leadership of the Conservative Party, protecting her for at least 12 months, but has also had no motions of no confidence in the House of Commons or large enough threats for her to resign. Needless to say, she has had a year from hell but has managed to remain PM, a great feat in itself.
“When you strip away the detail the choice before us is clear. This deal, which delivers on the vote of the referendum, which brings back control of our money, laws and borders, ends free movement, protects jobs, security and our union, or leave with no deal, or no Brexit at all.“
Theresa May
November 14, 2018
Going into 2019, Brexit will be more challenging and grab more headlines. With the deadline fast approach, the question remains will the U.K. accept May’s deal? If not, what will happen? Will planes stop flying to the U.K. from Europe? Will the Port of Dover become a car park for trucks? The next few months will also answer many philosophical questions regarding the state of our international system. With a Hard Brexit symbolising the demise of closer EU diplomatic relations and prioritisation of state sovereignty, and a Cold Brexit representing acceptance of growing regionalism at the expense of state power, where will our world be heading?
An African Peace – Ethiopia and Eritrea
Understated and not talked enough about was the positive relations between the African nations of Ethiopia and Eritrea. Since securing independence in 1993, Eritrea has had hostile relations with Ethiopia. Exacerbated through warfare between 1998 and 2000, relations were severed and the border was closed. The two countries began the new millennium on poor terms which lasted until the reestablishment of diplomatic relations on July 9th.
“We have agreed to bring down the wall between us. Now there is no border between Ethiopia and Eritrea. That border line has gone today with the display of a true love … love is greater than modern weapons like tanks and missiles. Love can win hearts, and we have seen a great deal of it today here in Asmara. From this time on, war is not an option for the people of Eritrea and Ethiopia. What we need now is love.”
Abiy Ahmed, PM of Ethiopia
July 8, 2018
With the election of Abiy Ahmed in April, the Ethiopian Government sought to prioritise relations with their neighbour, including a resolution to the border conflict. This was received to wide optimism in both countries, with Abiy having historically high approval ratings in Ethiopia. Although some tensions remain, the upcoming years will build upon the achievements of the 2018 negotiations. This warming of relations brings home the hope for an improved international environment. If such adversarial neighbours can attempt to put their differences aside, then other nation-states can as well.
Elections Galore – Populism remains Popular
This year saw elections across the developed and developing worlds. One of interest was that of Brazil, with the election of the staunch conservative and right-wing Jair Bolsonaro. After a myriad of corruption, including the impeachment of President Rousseff, the conviction of former President Lula, and the low popularity of outgoing President Temer, Bolsonaro emerged as the front runner who sought to end major political intervention in the economy, lower taxes, and restore traditional family values. Although he was attacked for said aggressive values which are perceived to alienate many sectors of society, he garnered over 46% of the vote in the first round and easily won the second round.
Mexico also elected Andrés Manuel López Obrador as its president, taking office on December 1st. The left-wing politician has sought to end political corruption and reduce government spending. Namely, one of his first acts was to sell the presidential aircraft and enact a plan to transform the presidential palace into a cultural centre. Ultimately, he has sought to end all corruption in the political system, a message which finally resonated with voters on this, his third attempt for the presidency. He has pledged to end corruption “from top to bottom like cleaning the stairs.”
“The government will no longer be a committee at the service of a rapacious minority…”
Andrés Manuel López Obrador, President of Mexico
December 1, 2018
Although the policies of the two men differ highly, both from opposite sides of the metaphoric aisle, they have both been described as populists. It is needless to say that this period of populism is not near its end. Countries such as Canada, Israel and even Australia may see the impacts of populism through upcoming elections. Although they will differ in the degree of their effect, the populist effect will not simply disappear in 2019.
Crisis in Venezuela Continues
Venezuela continued to raise problems for South America and the wider international community. Economic conditions are continuously worsening, with thousands fleeing the country. Commodities have become so important that Goodyear have provided 10 tyres to staff made redundant. In July, inflation reached 83,000% with the smallest transactions occurring via electronic transfers. The government under President Maduro has attempted to solve this by introducing new banknotes, the bolivar soberano, but this has done little to ease issues.
“We expect the government to continue to run wide fiscal deficits financed entirely by an expansion in base money, which will continue to fuel an acceleration of inflation as money demand continues to collapse.”
Alejandro Werner, Head of the IMF’s Western Hemisphere Department
July 23, 2018
Problems with Venezuela continue to be the lack of diversity in its markets, with 95% of its wealth coming from oil exports. As the country with the largest oil reserves, its reliance on oil prices means it has a volatile economy. Unless there is serious economic improvements and reforms in 2019, it seems the great exodus of Venezuelans to neighbouring countries will continue, straining relations in Latin America and placing pressure on other nations to assist these economic migrants.
Goodbye Syria
We end the year with news of Trump visiting troops and the U.S. Government in shutdown. He recently suffered major loses in the House of Representatives, increased his majority in the Senate, faced scrutiny through the court proceedings against Michael Cohen and Michael Flynn, was pressured over issues with Russian election meddling, continued trade tensions with China, and caught himself in a barrage of criticism after the death of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Trump has had a newsworthy end to the year.
However, December came with the President also throwing another spanner in the works by deciding to withdraw troops from Syria. Declaring that “we have won against ISIS,” Trump’s announcement on December 19 shocked government officials and even the Pentagon, with General Mattis resigning as Secretary of Defense as a result. There remains uncertainty regarding the timetable for the withdrawal, with multiple sources claiming between 30-days to 100-days while CNN reported National Security Advisor John Bolton reassured coalition partners by stating they would remain until Iran withdrew.
The consequences of withdrawal were summarised by Senator Lindsey Graham, who said:
“An American withdrawal at this time would be a big win for ISIS, Iran, Bashar al Assad of Syria, and Russia. I fear it will lead to devastating consequences for our nation, the region, and throughout the world.”
Senator Lindsey Graham (Republican, South Carolina)
December 19, 2018
This will give Russia, Iran and Turkey greater control in the region. Notably, the presence of Russia is of crucial importance as the region’s conflicts re-established the former Soviet country as a military force. U.S. withdrawal will give Russia greater control, as well as giving Iran a freer hand to retain a large military and intelligence presence in Syria while Turkey is appeased by the U.S. and has less threats from American-supported Syrian Kurdish forces. With little details known, 2019 will be pivotal for the future stability of the Middle East, especially in regard to who will decide the region’s fate and the future role the U.S. will play.
Looking to 2019 – Expect the Unexpected
I would be lying if I said that 2019 would be a quiet year. There is no such thing as “quiet” in international relations. As evident by this article not being able to cover every single major event, there is always something of importance occurring. The next 12 months are shaping up to be very exciting but also may prove to be shocking. It is my hope that simple differences can be forgotten, truths be espoused, and society can come together for the betterment of us all. May former strife be behind us, and although this sounds like idealism at its finest, may we resolve to agree-to-disagree and cooperate for the good of humankind. Let us remember the immortal words of Saint Francis of Assisi:
Where there is hatred, let me sow love;
where there is injury, pardon;
where there is doubt, faith;
where there is despair, hope;
where there is darkness, light;
where there is sadness, joy.
Happy New Year to you all. I hope 2019 is prosperous for you all and brings you good fortune and health.
As Editor-In-Chief, I want to thank you all for supporting Pivot since we began publishing in May. Importantly, I also want to express my gratitude to the writers. You have added valuable content to Pivot, opened my eyes and those of all the readers. I am truly grateful for your support and look forward to more insightful articles in 2019. Finally, I want to thank the MIAS Committee for their support in the establishment of Pivot over this year. Without their assistance we would not have our own website or even exist.
