Taking office in July 2016, Theresa May proclaimed “Brexit means Brexit.” Regardless of the relentless calls to hold another referendum, May has sought to ensure the UK leaves the EU on March 29th 2019. The past month has been significant for Britain’s departure from the supranational body. An agreement has been finalised by UK and EU negotiators while May has had to fend off threats to her premiership. With her position still on tenterhooks, May’s future, and that of the Withdrawal Agreement, all depend on Westminster’s response to the deal.
The Eve of May’s Reckoning
After 524-days of negotiations, Theresa May and EU-27 leaders agreed to place a final withdrawal agreement to European parliaments for ratification. The legally binding treaty and non-binding political declaration has been a matter of great disappointment for Brexiteers due to various concessions. The 585-page agreement mainly tackles citizens’ rights, the cost of the departure, and issues with the Irish border, all points of controversy in the negotiation process.
The deal safeguards the rights of more than three-million EU citizens living and working in the UK, with this reciprocated through the protection of over one-million UK nationals in EU countries. These rights will be conferred on people entering and moving between the UK and the EU until the end of the transition period in December 2020. This means special rights regarding residency, education, and employment.
Negotiations have also resulted in £39 billion worth in payments to the EU by the UK. This will cover the UK’s contributions to the EU budget until 2020, with a possibility that this figure could increase if the transition period is extended. The Government has also tried to justify the figure by indicating it still has outstanding commitments to the EU, even after departure. This includes support of Britons in the EU and pensions for former EU officials.
Negotiators are attempting to tackle the extremely problematic Irish border issue with a ‘backstop.’ Complicated due to shared resources such as roads as well as open trade and services, a hard border would damage decades of improved relations and would conflict with the Good Friday Agreement. Negotiators are betting on the creation of a trade deal to resolve this issue. Yet, if this fails, the notorious ‘backstop’ becomes enacted, which would result in the UK remaining in the customs union while Northern Ireland would have to obey EU single market regulations.
Although not intended to be legally enforceable, the political declaration acts as a comprehensive template for future relations between the UK and EU, placing an onus on security and trade. The document leaves the door open for the UK to maintain and further develop its current level of security cooperation with the EU. Regarding the latter, May has sought frictionless trade. Yet, this is still dependent on the UK respecting EU standards on taxation, employment regulations, competition, the environment, and other similar matters.
Overall, this deal has been described as a lose-lose by all European leaders, with EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker claiming it is the only deal possible. Instead of placing an onus on its deficits, the British Government has focused on improved border control, increased sovereignty regarding agricultural and fisheries policies, and the UK not being subject to the EU Court of Justice. Nevertheless, all these negotiations will be futile unless the Withdrawal Agreement is passed by the Parliament.
Looking to Westminster – Parliament will decide
For the Withdrawal Agreement to be ratified, May must get support from a majority of the House of Commons. Whilst this is not problematic for majority governments, May lacks the numbers in the Commons. By holding an election three-years early in June 2017, the PM sought to increase her majority and safeguard an easy passage for any Brexit deal. Yet, the Conservative majority crumbled and the Government’s existence is now reliant on 10 members of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). This gives the Government 326 seats in matters of confidence and supply, a majority of two. Although only 320 votes are needed due to various MPs not taking their seats, May is still placed in a precarious position.
Firstly, the DUP are not satisfied with the Withdrawal Agreement and are unwilling to vote for it in its current form. The leader of the pro-UK Northern Irish party called for a “third way,” insisting that the Parliament “shouldn’t just accept an outcome for the sake of it.” Foster’s issues pertain to the Northern Irish backstop and wants it removed from any agreement as it means bringing Northern Ireland closer to the Republic of Ireland if a trade deal fails to eventuate while also distancing it from the rest of the UK. If the DUP did vote against the agreement, the Government would be reduced to only 316 votes.
Whilst May would need the DUP for support, she also needs to maintain control of her own party. During November, the PM faced multiple threats regarding votes of no confidence in her leadership from various Brexiteers. May’s second Brexit Secretary, Dominic Raab, resigned due to disagreements with the deal, as did high-profile Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey. Whilst this gave May the opportunity to re-appoint ally Amber Rudd to cabinet after the Windrush scandal, it elucidates serious challenges to May’s position.
Additionally, May has suffered from vehement criticism from the European Research Group (ERG), a collective of prominent Conservative Brexiteers chaired by Jacob Rees-Mogg. In total, over 90 Conservatives have indicated they will vote against the current terms. This means just over 220 MPs are likely to support the agreement. Unable to whip members of her own party places the PM in a fragile position, with the current political climate meaning the deal will be voted down.
May can try to reach out to members of the opposition, yet this would be futile unless major concessions were made. Labour has confirmed they will whip against the deal, as to has the Scottish National Party. Some Labour and SNP politicians have gone as far as to call for a second referendum. Nevertheless, if successful in getting all members to vote against the deal, these two parties alone would provide a combined total of 292 no-votes. Along with the predicted 90 dissenting Conservatives and 10 DUP members, this would overwhelmingly exceed the majority needed to vote against it’s passage.
So… Deal or No Deal?
The progression of the Withdrawal Agreement is a delicate process which would require political mastery and the employment of all the leverage the Prime Minister’s Office can muster. Currently, the odds are against the deal passing the Commons. However, to survive two-and-a-half years as PM during a time of great strain and difficult negotiations is an amazing feat, meaning May should not be underestimated. A vote against this deal, a result of 524-days of negotiations, will place her in a position which many will perceive as untenable. Yet, this deal, and May’s leadership, cannot be written off until Westminster officially decides.
