On November 6th, Americans will head to the polls to elect 36 state governors, 35 senators, and 435 members of the House of Representatives. Whilst usually overshadowed by presidential elections, this midterm election will have profound effects on the legislative agenda of a controversial president and the future of the US electoral map. Heading into the final days of the campaign, projections point to the Democrats taking the House with the Republicans likely to retain control of the Senate. Although these are only forecasts and not official results, the loss of the House could mean the stagnation of Trumpian policies and new challenges for this unorthodox administration.
History of midterm elections
Midterm elections have been characterised as a referendum on the sitting president’s performance and how successful their party has been in the preceding two years. Over the past 20 midterm elections, the president’s party has lost an average of 30 seats in the House and 4 seats in the Senate. President Obama’s own term in office was marred by electoral disasters in the midterms. Democrats lost control of the House in 2010, losing 63 seats (from 257 to 193). The Senate was lost in 2014 when 9 seats flipped. Obama’s first two-years in office were similar to Trump’s as both chambers of Congress were controlled by the president, allowing for his legislative agenda to pass without major challenges. However, midterm results hampered his presidency, making it extremely difficult to achieve policy objectives and placing further scrutiny on the White House.
This contrasts George W. Bush’s own experience. The Senate was controlled by Republicans over four years (2003-2007) while the House was held for six years (2001-2007) of the Bush presidency, with the latter originally won in 1994. Both the House and Senate were lost together at the 2006 midterm. This was such a significant loss that it was the first time the victorious party (Democrats) did not lose a single incumbent or open seat in both Congress and Gubernatorial elections. This calamity for Republicans was attributed to the Iraq War and the unpopularity of President Bush who was blamed for his handling of the preceding events. In conjunction with Hurricane Katrina, opposition to Social Security privatisation, and hikes in fuel prices, the Administration’s failures resulted in midterm disaster.
Sadly, midterms are often overlooked by voters. Without a leader to focus on and more localised campaigns, voters often neglect their right to have a say in who represents them at both state and federal levels. This is evident with the lower turnout at midterms when compared to presidential elections. In 2014, only 36.4% of national voters cast a ballot, the lowest rate since 1942. This contrasts the 2016 presidential election in which 55.7% of registered voters participated.
Projections for the 116th Congress
The Republicans control both the Senate and the House of Representatives. The former has been held since 2014 and the latter since 2010. However, if the aforesaid trends continue to be followed, one chamber could flip to the Democrats.
Heading into this election session, the odds for the Democrats to take control of the Senate are minimal, with current projections giving them only a 15.8% chance of winning a majority. This is because they hold 24 of the 33 seats up for election. More importantly, nine Democratic incumbents are from states Trump won in 2016. One seat of crucial importance is North Dakota, currently held by Democratic Senator Heidi Heitkamp. Senator Heitkamp is down 11.4% in the average polls to Republican opponent Kevin Cramer. There are also close races for Democrat incumbents in Missouri, Indiana and Florida. Whilst the Republicans are being challenged in Arizona, Ohio and Nevada, the Democrats would have to win all their target seats to attain a majority. Even 50 seats wouldn’t give them control of the Senate as Republicans could rely on the tie-breaking vote from Vice President Pence.
Democrats are more hopeful of winning the House, with Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi priming a return to the Speaker’s chair. To reach the magic number of 218 seats, Democrats need to win a further 25 congressional districts. This is no easy feat but something polls deem as likely. Current projections give Democrats an 85.8% chance of winning control of the House. Based on polling done in individual seats, Democrats have a greater likelihood of flipping seats in swing states while many more Republican seats have become vulnerable. As of November 3rd, projections give Democrats 216 seats while Republicans have 199 with only 20 seats as toss-ups. If this happens on election night, Democrats only need a to win two toss-up seats to get a majority.
But importantly, something that many pundits haven’t realised, is that House oversight committees will be controlled by Democrats if Republicans lose their majority. That means further scrutiny on White House policies and on the President himself. This could include renewed demands for Trump’s taxes, investigations into the business affairs of the President and his family, and further protection of Special Counsel Robert Mueller in regards to the Russia Probe. If control of the House does change hands, the next two-years will likely be fraught with investigations into the private affairs of Trump and the conduct of the entire Administration.
If 2016 taught us anything, politicians should not take anything for granted as polls can be wrong. Ask Hillary Clinton – Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan remain sensitive topics for her and the entire Democratic National Committee. Nevertheless, Trump’s future legislative agenda will be impacted if he loses any part of Congress. This would mean further negotiations with Democrats and even the toning down of many controversial policies, including the notorious US-Mexico border wall.
Don’t forget gubernatorial elections
Republicans have a considerable advantage regarding current governor races, holding 33 of the governorships compared to the 16 Democratic incumbents and one independent. With approximately 60 million more voters than Republicans, it is estimated that Democrats will make significant gains. This is due to many states that voted for Clinton in 2016 having Republican governors. Examples of this are Illinois, Maine and New Mexico, all characterised as likely Democrat. Other states with Republican incumbents like Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin have been deemed tossups or lean-Democrat.
Gubernatorial races are usually overshadowed as they mainly involve state policies and don’t concern a national constituency. However, they do impact the composition of the US Congress due to the notorious gerrymandering. All officials elected in 2018 will decide their states’ chief executives during the redistricting of congressional districts along the 2020 census. This means political parties can guarantee themselves safer seats in Congress by reorganising boundaries more favourably. This was evident in Illinois’ 4th congressional district which has come to be known as “the earmuffs.” This was due to the packing of two predominant Hispanic areas, connecting them by two hairlines. Although widened slightly, it has not been held by the Republicans since 1989 and overwhelmingly votes Democrat in presidential elections.
2018 seems to be pivotal for future compositions of the Congress. Whoever wins will define their state delegations in the House for the following decade. Unlike countries such as Australia, the absence of an independent electoral commission with said decisions made by partisan officials means the continuation of tainted electoral boundaries that protect party interests and disregard a proportionate distribution of voters.
Conclusion – Don’t overlook midterms!
As 2016 has taught us, predictions are not actual results – they can be wrong, have been wrong, and will be wrong again. The day before the 2016 election, Trump only had a 28.6% chance of winning the presidency. Nevertheless, if predictions are correct and Republicans lose the House, Trump will have to face more powerful Democratic obstacles to his legislative agenda. Will Trump be able to continue to freely pass legislation or will the Administration face new barriers? Will the new Congress more fervently scrutinise Trump? Which party will have a greater impact on the future of congressional districts? Only time will answer these questions, but for now this underlines why the midterm elections should be treated more crucially by American voters.
