Pillars of Strength: Breaking down the AUKUS Agreement

Photo by Ah Het on Unsplash

Donald Trump’s response of  “What does that mean?” may feel familiar to many when the acronym AUKUS is mentioned. Some readers may be familiar with the dialogue of submarines and the eye-watering amounts that this deal will apparently cost Australia (anywhere from $268bn to $368bn) but what actually is AUKUS and what does this all mean for Australia and the wider Indo-Pacific region? 

What is AUKUS and what are the Pillars?

The acronym stands for Australia, United Kingdom, and the United States as this is a trilateral security partnership between the three states. AUKUS is nowhere near a new phenomenon, with the United Kingdom and the United States having shared nuclear technology knowledge since 1958. The AUKUS agreement was created by then Prime Minister of Australia, Scott Morrison, Ex Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Boris Johnson, and then President of the United States of America, Joe Biden. There are two parts to this deal, known as Pillar One and Pillar Two. Pillar One is the part of the agreement that has garnered the most attention, as it covers the delivery of the more controversial part of the deal: eight nuclear powered and conventionally weaponed (meaning they do not use nuclear weaponry) Virginia class submarines. Pillar Two is the less interesting pillar of technological innovation and advancing capabilities. So, let’s break these both down further.

Pillar One: what, when, how, and why? 

Pillar One is all about the physical goods that are the submarines. The goal of pillar one is to have a rotational deployment of four American and one British submarine in Western Australia alongside at least three Australian submarines procured from the United States. These submarines are to aid stability in the Indo-Pacific Region and deter aggression from other states. There are nuclear-powered attack submarines, known by the acronym SSNs, which are the newest, most cutting-edge submarine technology, that are being built using Pillar Two of the AUKUS partnership.  Australia is also purchasing American Virginia class submarines to supplement the new force. SSNs are to be delivered to Australia as soon as the early 2030s. 

The controversial nature of the submarine procurement was that in 2016, Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull signed a bilateral agreement with France to secure twelve of the French Barracuda class submarines for deployment potentially in early 2030. However, in 2021, Australia scrapped the $90bn deal in favor of AUKUS. Australia cited cost blowouts and delays during major milestones as their reasoning behind backing out of the deal. The pivot away from France towards US submarines soured the Franco-Australian relationship – France withdrew its ambassador from Canberra in retaliation.

Pillar Two: The Technological Side 

AUKUS Pillar Two originates from the Five Eyes countries’ Technical Cooperation Program (TTCP) and is organised using the Five Eyes eight working groups: innovation, information-sharing, undersea capabilities, quantum science, artificial intelligence (AI) and autonomy, advanced cyber, hypersonics and counter-hypersonics, and electronic warfare. 

Innovation and information-sharing are the overarching point of Pillar Two as it drives the capabilities of all the working groups. Part of this are innovation challenges that the AUKUS partners release to drive particular innovation. The challenge series is said to bring together the AUKUS innovation systems, so that capability can be rapidly developed and shared securely for the collective benefit of AUKUS partners. The innovation challenge enhances collective research and development and knowledge exchanges between Australia, America and the United Kingdom to aid in the acceleration of scientific design and capabilities to bolster the AUKUS alliance. The innovation side of AUKUS is also meant to trickle into civilian markets by bringing innovation, enhancing advanced manufacturing capabilities, and creating a highly skilled workforce.

Undersea capabilities pertaining to warfare have become a focus shift in recent years as the undersea domain becomes not just more complex and challenging but also fundamental in protecting Australian national interests and security, particularly in the South China Sea and amidst China’s attacks on undersea cables. AUKUS is, at its forefront, going to improve underseas capabilities for all of the countries involved. Particularly as nuclear powered submarines like the American Virginia Class, and the soon to be SSN-AUKUS, are faster and able to stay underwater longer with a nearly limitless power supply. These submarines will be able to be on mission for nearly three months compared to the current Australian capability of eleven days, and will also be bigger, giving it a larger array of weaponry. The Virginia class submarine can carry 25 torpedoes, and 12 to 40 vertical launching tomahawk cruise missiles for hitting targets on land. 

Photo by Sorato Suzuki on Unsplash

One of Pillar Two’s main strategic goals is to minimize the lead that China currently has in dual-use emerging technologies such as quantum science and AI. By working collaboratively with American and British industry, Australia not only has the ability to bolster its own industries but also access both American and British markets and minds through a collaborative approach. Because of this, each AUKUS nation can benefit from the pool of minds at its disposal. 

Hypersonic weapons are mainly long-range strike missiles which can travel five times the speed of sound and can be launched from land, sea and air. This technology is rapidly developing and much like the last three working groups, is an area in which Australia, America and the United Kingdom wish to be leading the charge. Specifically, AUKUS Pillar Two encompasses the Hypersonic Flight Test and Experimentation, or HyFliTE project which looks to accelerate the development, testing, and evaluation of innovative hypersonic solutions. A funding pool of $252 million USD has been created to fund the project. A key goal of HyFliTE is to conduct up to six test flight campaigns by 2028. 

Cyber is another domain that AUKUS focuses on as cyber is used to manipulate, deny, disrupt, degrade, or destroy targeted computers, information systems or networks, necessary for Australia to understand, navigate,  and utilise for offensive and defensive purposes. However, not only is cyber important for military purposes, but also for the defence of civilian capabilities such as economic stability and growth through the protection of the digital economy. Cyber is another way civilians tangibly benefit from the AUKUS agreement other than state defence. 

Electronic warfare is not just a byproduct of cyberspace but is a type of warfare which utilizes weaponry using the electromagnetic spectrum to attack enemy forces, facilities, or equipment. Electronic warfare is actually the innovation challenge focus point for 2025 between the AUKUS partners in their innovation working group. Electronic warfare is seen as a key capability, especially for the Indo-Pacific with China also looking to develop its electronic warfare capabilities such as high-power jammers to disrupt various networks to interfere with enemy operations by land, air, sea, and now, space. 

And here comes Trump 2.0

As Trump shakes up the global order, there is an air of nervousness about where he stands on AUKUS, especially given his confused response when asked about it, revealing that he did not know what AUKUS was. However, top Republicans such as Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have doubled down on America’s AUKUS commitment, with Rubio stating that, “It is something that I think you’re going to find very strong support for in this administration.”  It seems for now that Canberra is in positive spirits around the deliverability of the project and President Trump’s commitments. However, Trump seems to be operating on a ‘vibes-based’ approach to international relations, so only time will tell. 

The AUKUS alliance is already facing delays on the American side as delays in submarine shipbuilding haunt the American Navy’s budget. Furthermore, Trump’s tariff tirade could increase AUKUS costs, particularly due to tariffs on steel. Thus, the belief that Australia will receive its Virginia class submarines by early 2030 seems like more of a pipe dream than a reality. When this is put into the grand scheme of Australian military programmes, it is business as usual when it comes to cost blowouts and delays. When we cast an eye back to such programs as the Joint Strike Fighter F-35 program and the military Satellite Communications program known as SATCOM, it is evident that the issue of timeliness in delivery is a persistent challenge. The cost and timeline is less of a concern to Australia killing the agreement, rather, it seems Trump and the degrading situation in the South China Sea will be the measure of whether the programme comes to fruition and is a beneficial use of taxpayer funding.