Living Through History: How the Middle East is Being Reshaped in 2025

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‘Peace in the Middle East,’ the saying goes, often with a sigh or a scoff.

For decades, it’s been more of a punchline than a possibility. Can a region so often defined by conflict, foreign intervention, and deep-rooted tensions ever truly know peace?

The Middle East has long been a geopolitical hotbed – a land of shifting alliances, ancient rivalries, and religious divisions, where empires have risen and fallen, leaving behind a legacy of both culture and conflict.

But in recent years, something remarkable has begun to unfold: historic changes that are quietly, yet significantly, reshaping the region and its alliances. Understanding these changes is critical, because the future of the Middle East could look very different from its past. On a grander level, this can impact the global landscape.

Let’s explore six key areas that help us understand the nature of this regional shift.

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The Fall of Assad’s Regime in Syria

The Assad family’s regime began in 1970 when Hafez al-Assad seized power through a military coup. His son, Bashar al-Assad, succeeded him in 2000 and maintained authoritarian control until his ouster in December 2024. After 54 years of authoritarian rule and a 14-year civil war that claimed over 600,000 lives and displaced much of the population, the Assad regime collapsed in December 2024 after a coup led by the armed coalition between the Sunni-Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA). This marks one of the most significant regime changes in the modern Middle East. 

Led by interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa of HTS (an offshoot of al-Qaeda), HTS currently controls Syria, having signed a temporary constitution in March for a transitional five-year period. However, there are other fragmented forces in the country vying for control, such as the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Islamic State forces, and regime supporters.

Global powers continue to play a significant role in Syria, with countries like Iran, Russia, the US, UK, and Israel all pursuing strategic interests. For instance, the U.S. is strengthening support for Kurdish forces in Syria and Iraq to counterbalance Turkish and Iranian influence, and is reportedly backing the integration of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) into the unified interim military.

Key question: Can a new Syria emerge – stable, democratic, and free from foreign domination – or will power vacuums invite further fragmentation?

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Israel-Gaza Conflict: Reshaping the Region

Israel has emerged significantly stronger following the October 7 Hamas attacks. With Hamas largely dismantled in Gaza and Hezbollah’s forces in Lebanon heavily degraded due to Israeli forces, Israel has reasserted itself as a military power in the region. The war has reshaped the broader geopolitical dynamics of the Middle East profoundly.

What will happen in post-Hamas Gaza remains uncertain. There have been talks of many possible avenues, such as control being wielded by the Palestinian Authority, an international coalition, UN peacekeeping forces, the IDF, or local actors.

Additionally, Hezbollah’s decrease in power raises the opportunity for Lebanon’s to reassert itself. Once the region’s most powerful non-state armed group, it has been severely weakened after most of its top leadership were killed and it lost its alliance with Syria after the fall of the Assad government.

Iran’s regional ‘Axis of Resistance’ now appears fractured due to these changes. Once a loose coalition of proxies – Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), and the Assad regime in Syria – the network has been shaken. In response, Iran is pursuing various efforts – increasingly leaning on its remaining regional footholds in Iraq and Yemen, while deepening ties with global allies like China and Russia and increasing its nuclear efforts.

One more key point to note is Israel’s normalisation with its neighbors, marked by the unprecedented 2020 Abraham Accords with the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan, which represents a major diplomatic shift aimed at fostering regional cooperation beyond the Israel-Gaza conflict, as well as its ongoing peace talks with Saudi Arabia. Since its founding, Israel has never experienced such a broad wave of normalisation agreements with Arab states – the Abraham Accords marked a historic shift in regional diplomacy, though the long-term stability of these ties remains subject to regional dynamics. 

Key questions:

Who will govern Gaza post-Hamas, and can it deliver lasting stability and legitimacy?

Will the weakening of Iran’s proxy network and the potential normalisation between Israel and its neighbours mark the start of a more stable regional order, or provoke further confrontation across the Middle East?

Iran’s Weakening Grip

As expounded on, Iran’s once formidable regional influence is rapidly unraveling. Its axis of resistance is diminished, and Iran may be at its weakest since its 1979 Revolution. Under the Trump administration, a sharpened containment strategy has taken aim directly at Tehran’s regional ambitions. U.S. forces have been repositioned strategically across the Gulf and Iraq, while Iranian-backed militias in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen have faced strikes, and cyberattacks on Iran have escalated.

Under current negotiations, Trump is pushing for a new agreement to halt Iran’s nuclear development, seeking a fair deal that would prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons while allowing peaceful nuclear energy. However, Iran continues to advance its nuclear program and is currently nearing breakout capability.

Iran is also deepening ties with Russia and China, though the partnerships remain primarily strategic rather than ideological. Economic, military, and trade cooperation are expanding – most recently demonstrated by the Security Belt 2025 joint naval exercises. Notably, Iran signed a 25-year Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with China in March 2021, and in January 2025, concluded a similar Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement with Russia.

Key question: Has the tide finally turned against Iran’s regional strategy, or is this just a temporary setback in a longer game?

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The Gulf States on the Rise

The geopolitical center of gravity in the Gulf is steadily shifting eastward.

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have been increasingly engaging with regional institutions like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). This engagement reflects a strategic pivot towards Asia, aiming to diversify their economic and political partnerships beyond traditional Western alliances. In 2023, both Saudi Arabia and the UAE were invited to join BRICS, signalling their growing role in shaping global economic and political landscapes.

China has emerged as the fastest-growing source of foreign direct investment and business activity in Dubai, reflecting a broader reorientation toward Asia. Trade between the Middle East and Asia is projected to surpass Gulf-West trade by 2027, highlighting this deepening economic integration. Dubai’s ambitious D33 economic agenda seeks to double the city’s economy by 2033 and expand its foreign trade reach to 400 additional cities worldwide. At the same time, innovation hubs like the Dubai Silicon Oasis are drawing global tech firms and top talent.

India is also a major player. The UAE and India signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) in 2022, with bilateral trade expected to exceed $100 billion by 2027.

This eastward pivot marks a fundamental transformation in the region. Gulf states are evolving beyond their traditional role as oil powers to become leading centers of innovation, investment, and international diplomacy.

Key question: As the Gulf states grow closer to Asia and build new trade and political ties, will this shift reduce their reliance on the West and change their role in the global order?

The China-Russia Factor

China and Russia are increasingly stepping into the Middle East. As explained, China and Russia have both increased trade with various regional powers. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has seen a significant uptick in the Middle East, with investments reaching $39 billion in 2024, making the region the top recipient of BRI funds, and, notably, Saudi Arabia has secured $19 billion in Chinese investments recently.

Both China and Russia have also played roles in helping Iran evade Western sanctions. China, for instance, has developed methods to import Iranian oil while bypassing the Western financial system and shipping services. The U.S. has recently imposed sanctions on a network involving entities in Iran and China accused of supplying materials for Iran’s ballistic missile program.

Key question: As China and Russia grow more involved in the Middle East, will their influence shift the balance of power and weaken the West’s role in the region? 

The IMEC Trade Corridor

The India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC) is a transformative infrastructure and trade initiative aimed at linking India to Europe through the Middle East. Unveiled at the 2023 G20 Summit, the project envisions maritime routes from India to the UAE, followed by a rail network passing through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Israel. It also includes plans for pipelines and undersea cables to boost energy and digital connectivity across continents. IMEC is widely seen as the West’s strategic response to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, designed to deepen economic integration while countering Beijing’s growing influence. For Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the corridor represents a key component of their economic diversification agendas, aligning with long-term goals to become global trade and logistics hubs.

Key question: Can the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor rival China’s Belt and Road and reshape global trade routes?

Why This Matters

The fall of Assad, the weakening of Iran’s regional grip, the normalisation between Israel and its neighbors, the emergence of powerful Gulf states, and increasing economic power all point to a dramatic reordering in the Middle East.

These changes don’t guarantee peace – far from it. But they do suggest something we haven’t seen for a long time: the possibility of a region led by its own people, defining its own future.