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The outcome of the recent European Parliament Election carries a weighty implication – it signals that 2024 might indeed mark the triumph of right-wing populism in Europe. Parties with right-wing and Eurosceptic leanings made substantial gains across the continent, most notably, the European Conservatives and Reformists Group (ECR), which includes Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia [Brothers of Italy] (FdI), surged from being the Parliament’s sixth-largest group to its third-largest. Equally significant was Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National [National Rally] (RN), which secured a resounding victory over President Marcon’s pro-European coalition.
Since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 and the subsequent Euro Crisis of the early 2010s, Europe has been grappling with the growing threat of populism and extremism. However, until 2022, these risks had not fully materialised. With the exception of the brief two-year coalition between the ÖVP [Austrian People Party] and the far-right FPÖ [Freedom Party of Austria], and the one-and-a-half year tenure of Lega Nord [Northern League] in the Italian government, no other right-wing populist or extremist parties had managed to gain power. And even when they did, as evidenced by the two previous exceptions, their tenure was often short-lived. But the political landscape has undergone a seismic shift in the past two years.
In Europe, for decades, there had been a long-held cordon sanitaires where mainstream parties agree to isolate and refuse to cooperate with more extreme or populist parties, typically to prevent their influence from growing. However, this barrier is now dissolving slowly across the continent. In 2022, Ulf Kristersson became Sweden’s prime minister despite his party coming third in the national election thanks to confidence and supply support from the right-wing Swedish Democrats, the first time in Swedish history that such an agreement was reached. Similarly, the conservative liberal VVD [People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy], who had ruled the Netherlands for the last 14 years, is now entering into a coalition with Geert Wilder’s populist PVV [Party for Freedom]. This happened after the VVD had previously ruled out working with them prior to the 2023 Dutch General Election. In France, following the call for a snap parliamentary election on the 30th of June, Eric Ciotti, the president of Les Republicains [The Republicans] broke the mostly holy cordon sanitaire of French politics and unilaterally attempted to form an electoral alliance with the RN. While the RN and its allies only managed to come third in the legislative election, we are now truly seeing the manifestation and normalisation of populism in European politics.
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Among the 27 European Union member states, only four are currently led by a left-of-centre government: Malta, Denmark, Germany and Spain. If the results of this month’s European Election were to be translated into a national election, the latter two would lose out to their centre-right counterparts. Even when a right-wing populist or extremist party is not in government, their rising popularity can sway many European governments into adopting some of their ideas. For instance, in France, President Macron has adopted a stricter stance on immigration and national security to counter the growing influence of the RN. In Denmark, the Social Democrats have also embraced tougher immigration policies, traditionally associated with right-wing populists, to maintain their political position. Similarly, Ursula Von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, has sought support from Georgia Meloni and her ECR group to break legislative deadlocks within the European Parliament.
Unlike many Anglo-Saxon countries, the rise of right-wing populism in Europe is increasingly driven by young voters, who are traditionally seen as left-leaning. Economic insecurity, cultural concerns, distrust of mainstream politics, and social media influence are vital factors in this shift. High unemployment and job insecurity frustrate young Europeans, who feel mainstream parties have failed them. According to exit polls after the 2024 European Election, a third of young voters under 25 supported the RN. La France Insoumise [France Unbowed] (LFI), a left-wing party headed by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, came second with 17% of the votes. By contrast, President Macron’s coalition only achieved a meagre 6% of the votes among this demographic. This means that half of young French voters support either the RN or LFI, two parties that have never held power in France.
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Similarly, in the 2019 European Election, Germany’s Greens were the most popular party among young Germans. Five years later, the Greens are part of an increasingly unpopular three-party coalition, and the far-right Alternative für Deutschland [Alternative for Germany] (AfD) has now surpassed them in popularity among young voters. This shift was clearly illustrated in the recent state election in Brandenburg, an eastern German state. Exit polls showed that 32% of voters aged 16 to 24 supported the AfD, compared to just 7% for the Greens. This marks a significant reversal from five years ago when the Greens were the top choice among young voters, securing 27% of their vote—a full 10 points ahead of the AfD at the time. One major reason for this shift is economic frustration. Many young people across Europe feel that they are facing a future with fewer opportunities compared to previous generations. This economic dissatisfaction has led many young voters to feel that mainstream parties, whether on the left or right, have failed to address their concerns effectively. The far-right has successfully tapped into this discontent by offering more direct and emotionally charged solutions. Additionally, the far-right’s framing of issues like immigration and European integration resonates with younger voters concerned about security and national sovereignty. In Germany, for instance, young voters increasingly prioritise issues like peace and stability, with the AfD capitalising on concerns about military involvement in conflicts like the war in Ukraine. This trend underscores a significant political shift, with young Europeans increasingly aligning with right-wing populists and altering the political landscape.
The rise of right-wing populism in Europe has become undeniable. It is fuelled by economic and cultural factors and supported by an increasing number of young voters. While, on the surface, and confirmed by the recent European Elections, Europe is not at a direct risk of authoritarianism, this shift is still reshaping the political landscape and challenging traditional parties. As such, it can have a lasting impact and lead to the mainstream adoption of populist policies across the continent.
Guest - David Dau
David Dau is a student at Monash University. He is keenly interested in international relations, particularly in the European Union and integration. He focuses on understanding how political, economic, and social dynamics within the EU shape broader global governance and transnational cooperation. David has participated in various Model UN activities, directing committees and leading discussions on multiple issues. His academic work often examines the policies of different European countries, the evolution of EU institutions, and the challenges of maintaining unity amid diverse political landscapes across the continent.