The Future in the Rear View Mirror: What’s happening in South Asia?

 Wall art by student protestors in north central Bangladesh. (Image source)

Bangladesh is now facing an uncertain future after months of political unrest led to Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wazed fleeing the country, leaving her government leaderless. 

The fall of her 15 year regime marks the end of the longest term served by a prime minister since 1971. While an interim government was quickly established in an attempt to restore unity, Bangladesh is not out of the woods yet. A citizen-backed political uprising is not new to the region however, with Sri Lanka experiencing markedly similar events just two years prior.

What does this all mean for the political health of the region? And what lessons can be learned from the past?

Contextualising the crisis 

Peaceful street protests began in early July after the Bangladeshi government reformed the existing quota system on government jobs. The move aimed to reserve 30 percent of places for the families of veterans who fought for independence in 1971. 

Public outcry was almost immediate. Student groups lead the charge, arguing that the system was only in place to benefit supporters of Hasina’s Awami League party, historical victors of the independence movement. Bangladesh’s youth population was also facing the highest rates of unemployment it had experienced in almost a decade, at three times the rate of the national average. As policymakers attempted to rectify the situation, protesters turned to express their frustration on broader issues such as corruption, nepotism, and indiscriminate state violence – problems for which neither the government nor the opposition has taken responsibility. 

The police, and eventually, the military became involved as protests turned into clashes, arresting citizens and deploying weaponry from helicopters above. A nation-wide internet blackout was enforced, hospitals treating the injured were placed under heavy surveillance, and homes and villages were raided and cordoned off as officials attempted to quell further action. The official reported death toll stood at over 1,000 by the end of August – the deadliest period in the country since its fight for independence five decades prior. 

Prime Minister Hasina resigned and fled to India at the beginning of August, giving little notice to her inner circle and government. She is currently residing in India with family, as Bangladesh attempts to repatriate her to be tried in line with the 2016 extradition treaty shared between the two countries. Such an outcome remains to be seen, as India navigates its place among the tension. While unprecedented, this is not a new challenge for the major South Asian power – it faced the same uncertainty in 2022, as regional neighbour Sri Lanka questioned its political future. 

Sri Lankan protesters in front of Presidential Secretariat, as part of the #gohomegota campaign in 2022 (Image source) 

#GoHomeGota and India’s lessons from Sri Lanka

As the COVID-19 pandemic raged on, Sri Lanka’s economy was treading water: annual inflation stood at 59.2 percent as the country struggled to pay back its debts to foreign nations including China, India and the US. Sri Lanka began to run out of necessities including fuel, leading to 13 hour long energy blackouts in some provinces. Citizens looked to the government for accountability, holding then Prime Minister Gotabaya Rajapaksa at fault for his mismanagement of the national economy. However, he blamed external pressures such as the pandemic and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict as reasons for the decline. This did not appease the public however, and Sri Lanka’s major ethnic communities united for the first time to call for “Gota” to go home. The hashtag #gohomegota spread across X and Facebook as people marched the streets of the capital Colombo, calling for an end to the Rajapaksa dynasty. Similar to recent footage of protesters storming Hasina’s residence, Sri Lankan nationals went viral on social media as they swam in the president’s pool, napped on his bed, and watched cricket on his television.

Sri Lanka recently elected Anura Kumara Dissanayake in a historically peaceful election, with economic woes driving voter sentiments. His victory is a significant shift in the country’s political landscape, with left-leaning Dissanayake defeating previous presidents and members of the Rajapaksa family. The nation is slowly recovering, yet symbols of foreign influence mark the country’s ports and highways. 

None are as stark as Mattala Rajapaksa International Airport in Mattala. Recently placed under joint Indian-Russian management, the Chinese funded airport takes in next to no business, earning it the title of the emptiest airport in the world. 

Mattala Rajapaksa International Airport. (source)

Indian company Shaurya Aeronautics will collaborate with Russia’s Airports of Regions Management Company to bolster maintenance of the airport and drive tourists to the region, a move seen as a symbol of India attempting to counter Chinese influence in Sri Lanka. China has played a long and crucial role in the Sri Lankan economy, for better or for worse, meaning India will need to strengthen its presence accordingly, as part of a greater regional power struggle. Bangladesh is also likely to become a key focal point in this ongoing competition between China and India, therefore both countries will be planning their next steps with caution.

Looking ahead through the rear view mirror  

Hasina’s continued residency in India is undoubtedly a challenge for the Modi government. It must balance a series of regional partnerships in order to maintain its standing on both a national and international scale. As India and Bangladesh share a border, neither nation can stray too far from the political bonds they share. The case is the same financially, as India has given billions in credit over a decade – a financial partnership now fragile. China-Bangladesh relations are similarly strong, and have been reinforced across Hasina’s reign. Bangladesh will need to closely observe the emerging policies of the fledgling Sri Lankan government, and learn from the island’s previous political chapter as it writes its own. Interim government leader Muhammad Yunus therefore has a long and challenging road ahead, as he seeks to redress the economic and social issues that have long plagued Bangladeshi politics. The future of South Asia remains opaque, but there is much to be learned by looking in the political rear view mirror.