Guest Article – The Fight to Stay in the Show

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World leaders spend their political lives at a perpetual crossroad.

Stuck between fervent, varied interpretations of the past and the crushing imminence of competing priorities, the enduring question asked of our politicians is what to do next.

Leaders proverbially climb Mount Everest each and every day. Concocting, balancing, convincing.

Not all reach the summit.

Some linger at the base, promising and never delivering. Others get halfway up, and a storm hits, their dream shattered by circumstances beyond their control.

Nevertheless, to start an ascent, it takes a person blessed (or hindered) by innate and seemingly unflappable self-belief.

Evidence of such self-belief is well hidden. Often, leaders point to this or that conviction in explaining their candidacy, trying to relate to the masses at every turn.

Sometimes, only sometimes, this belief peeks through.

Some point to a cheeky higher power, as Obama did in crediting ‘magic beans’ for his meteoric presidential ascent in 2008.

Others are more shameless. In unilaterally nominating himself as the High Commissioner of Free France, de Gaulle called himself the ‘emissary of destiny.’

This belief is often maligned as hubris, sometimes rightly – think Donald Trump’s narcissism.

Of course, this confidence is not totally unwavering. Scott Morrison spoke of ‘debilitating and agonising’ anxiety while in office.

Nevertheless, self-assurance is the backbone of every world leader. Without it, politics would be stuck in an abyss of indecision.

Just a Kid from Scranton?

Notwithstanding his folksy charm and love for ice cream, Joseph Robinette Biden Jr is no different to the political beasts of the previous stanza.

Biden always believed he was the man.

He was the man at 16, when despite his ‘debilitating’ stutter leading to callous vitriol, Biden proudly proclaimed he wanted to be president.

He was the man at 29, when he overcame a two-term incumbent and a vast funding imbalance to become the sixth youngest senator ever at age 30.

He was the man at 30, when he lost his wife and daughter in a car crash but remained in the senate, commuting every day from Wilmington to Washington so he could care for his surviving sons.

He was the man at 43 and 47, when he remained undeterred despite his first two runs for president emulating a flightless bird and failing to get off the ground.

He was never more the man than at 77, when he beat Trump, receiving 81 million votes: the most mini endorsements in US history.

Like other leaders, Biden downplayed self-belief, pointing to the poignancy of contemporary issues in motivating his candidacy. In ’72 it was an out of touch incumbent, ignorant of local issues. In’20 it was Trump’s response to the Charlottesville riots and a fight for the ‘soul of America’.

At every turn, Biden lived to fight another day. One more campaign, one more press conference, one more vote.

Biden believed he was the man and acted like it.

Photo by Ian Hutchinson on Unsplash

An Inevitable Swansong

2024 was no different.

Nominally, Biden had one more decision to make; would he run for a second term?

Of course, this was never really up for debate.

In an emulation of the creed of his political career, Biden proclaimed that he was ‘the guy’ to lead America for four more years.

Biden did not believe his time was up. He did not believe that the political grim reaper had caught him.

Why would he?

He was the man.

However, Father time is undefeated. One can hide, cajole, negotiate, and do all in their power to stay in the show.

But no one can outrun the sands of time. Even for the most able, the wheels eventually fall off.

The final resting place of Biden’s political chariot was July 21 as he announced his relinquishment of the Democratic nomination.

It was a remarkable turn of events.

On the face of it, a leader choosing to forgo another term is not unprecedented. Harry Truman, Theodore Roosevelt, and Lydon Johnson all chose not to go again.

None of these are apt comparisons for Biden’s U-turn. He backed out of the nomination later than anyone in US history. He did so despite repeated reassurances that he would remain in the race. He did so at the behest of his political instincts.

The question is this. Why would a man, who always believed that he could, admit to the world that he no longer can?

Why would Biden step down?

The how is obvious: painfully.

As for the why, there are any number of explanations for Biden’s backflip. This article will focus on three.

i – No I in Team

The first is practical; Biden no longer had the support of the party.

It is possible that Biden’s self-belief remained intact, but he recognised the impossibility of winning an election with dwindling interparty support. Thus, Biden may have saved the Democrats from a bruising election with his divisive candidacy hanging over head.

Following Biden’s debate with Trump, the Democratic party was ‘despondent,’ as Biden trailed in all battle-ground states. By the date of relinquishment, some 40 Democrats and independents had publicly urged Biden to drop out. Elder statespeople of the Democratic party were not immune to this chorus. Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, and Barack Obama all privately urged Biden to reconsider his nomination.

Recognising this growing dichotomy, Biden may have stepped aside to unite the party by removing himself as a source of friction.

The New York Times points to this line of reasoning, asserting that Biden’s decision was in part to serve the Democratic Party that Biden held so dear. Further, Biden himself gestured to this in an interview with Robert Costa on CBS.

This is a nice, neat thought. A man, unable to shake the belief that he can win, sets aside his personal ambition for the greater good.

ii – An Old Dog Learns a New Trick

The second explanation is at odds with the first and is perhaps the hardest to believe. Biden was no longer the man, and he knew it.

Biden may have, after weeks of soul searching, decided that the jig was up, that the wheels had fallen off.

Can you teach an old dog new tricks?

Could Biden’s unflappable self-belief have escaped him?

For any person whose ability to lead was questioned as fundamentally as Biden’s was, self-doubt would have quickly set in.

But Biden was a different beast, a member of a class where unerring self-belief was a necessary tool of survival.

Publicly, Biden has outrightly rejected this theory, as he has repeatedly insisted that he could have won.

Nevertheless, this introspection may have been paired with an accurate political assessment. By stepping aside and quickly endorsing Kamala Harris, Biden propelled her ascension up the ticket, setting up a Trump-Harris match up that is purportedly more favourable for Democrats.

The possibility remains that after 50 years of fighting, Biden may have lost the battle for self-assurance.

iii – A Fifth Head on Mount Rushmore?

The final explanation is more cynical, but not worth dismissing out of hand. Biden may have stood down to protect his political legacy.

It’s more glorious to bow out on top before a once great legacy is tarnished irreparably.

Certainly, no one can say that Biden’s standing would have improved had he overseen Trump’s return to the White House and a Democratic Party in tatters.

It may have been, in some part, this desire for figurative immortality that drove Biden to drop out.

This was discussed in the Biden camp, with his wife Jill, believing Joe’s legacy to be of particular importance.

Greater ammunition for this explanation is found in Biden’s Oval Office address explaining his decision. Biden begun by discussing the moral urgency of the election, before quickly asserting that his ‘record as president’ ‘merited a second term.’ Biden spent almost five minutes of his 10-minute speech talking up his personal record.

Humans are a social people; we care what others think of us. Biden is no different, and it is possible that Biden’s desire for recognition shaped his decision to jettison the Democratic nomination.

Photo by Gayatri Malhotra on Unsplash

Inherently Unresolved

The final answer remains unclear.

By nature, this article is an exercise in speculation. It is impossible to definitively know the truth.

It doesn’t even really matter right now.

The Biden story is one of perseverance. Of a man coming back time and time again. Of a man who wanted nothing more than to fight another day.

Of a man who wanted to stay in the show.

But it’s a story of the past. For now, we turn our attentions to November 5, and to an election unrivalled in its consequence.

We can return to Joe’s odyssey another time – perhaps then with an ice cream in hand.