THE END OF THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT | THE RUSSIAN INVASION OF UKRAINE

BY LACHLAN MCKAY –

The events of this last week can be described by a certain R.E.M song, as it truly is the End of The World as We Know It. It is hard not to imagine that we are living in a new world now after the events of the past couple of weeks. Russia has invaded Ukraine in a conflict that has already claimed, according to UN sources, 802 civilian casualties since it began over a week ago.

Further military casualties, as Senior Pentagon officials have reported, appear to be above 1,500 on both Ukrainian and Russian sides in the first five days. These numbers are only estimates and are certain to grow as the conflict continues.

We’re Not feeling fine as the song goes. With all of Ukraine becoming a warzone, the European Union and North Atlantic Trade Organisation have rallied in opposition to Russia’s invasion. Massive sanctions have slammed the Russian economy, causing the Rouble, Russia’s currency to plummet nearly 65% in value. What’s more, Ukrainians (both military personnel and civilians) are taking up arms to resist the Russian invasion as a convoy reaching near 62km of Russian military forces makes its way toward Kyiv. This level of resistance and coordinated international effort has surely blind sighted Russia’s autocrat leader, Vladimir Putin. Putin’s speech announcing the invasion outlined the Russian justification for war, attempting to ‘de-nazify’ Ukraine and to install a Russian-friendly government. Furthermore, Putin is using a inaccurate and misleading version of history to claim that there is no true state of Ukraine, only territory that was historically part Russia and that it should be returned to Russian control. It is clear from Putin’s statement that he has every intention to dominate Ukraine in whatever way he can, either through a puppet government or total control over the country. As the fighting remains ongoing, diplomatic efforts are struggling to achieve a ceasefire and given Putin’s determination to subjugate Ukraine for his own aims, it seems unlikely that this will change.

The conflict will continue to claim more lives and re-shape the way that we view the world. And so, we are left asking ourselves, “how the hell did this happen?”

It is hard to pinpoint a single recent event that precipitated this invasion. Indeed, there was no assassination of the Archduke that directly caused European turmoil. Until recently it seemed even to the Ukrainian people that Russia would not invade and the increased troop deployment and military exercises were just an attempt at sabre rattling. However, Russia likely saw this moment as both an opportunity and a strategic necessity in order to ensure their security. It seems to be a paradoxical situation, (an aggressive invasion to ensure domestic security?) but there is IR theory that suggests a rationale. An Offensive Realist perspective would demand that Russia, in the face of an encroaching NATO and uncertainty as to NATO’s intentions, take aggressive action to deter further advancement. The impetus for this being that Russia has to rely solely on itself to provide its own security and that means being the dominant state in the region. Therefore, Russia must push back against NATO for its own security. It is further justified in the mind of Putin as a bourgeoning neo-Eurasianist, who has premised his foreign policy on expanding Russian hegemony in Asia and Eastern Europe. It represents a shift of Putin towards a hyper-nationalism in the face of what he perceives as NATO’s aggressive expansion and the ‘Nazification’ of Ukraine. Ukraine’s location on Russia’s border leads straight into Russia’s heartland, and within Putin’s ideological framework of a Greater Russia, it is simply unacceptable to him that Ukraine ‘goes west’.

There has been a strategic failure on behalf of NATO and the West, failing to identify or appreciate Russian threats to counter the expansion of NATO. The 2008 invasion of Georgia was likely triggered by NATO’s indication that it would be an aspirational state in joining the alliance. The initial invasion of Ukraine in 2014 was sparked by what Russia saw as US interference into Ukrainian politics, who at the time had a pro-Russian government but was removed in a coup supported by the US. Not to mention there are several speeches and statements from Putin declaring that NATO expansion onto Russia’s borders is seen as an existential threat. Already we can see Russian fears of an encroaching western power, however legitimate or otherwise the view is in reality, we must appreciate it is the view that Putin adopted, and is what has helped precipitate the conflict.

Furthermore, Russia is a proud nation who in Putin’s mind suffered a dramatic humiliation with the collapse of the USSR. As NATO expands its member states, Putin feels as if Russian prestige, and therefore Russian power, is suffering. This is compounded by his own isolation within his government and therefore the decision-making process has become centralised to Putin himself. Examples of this isolation are varied, as during the Covid pandemic he forced guests to isolate weeks in advance of meeting with him in person, and by humiliating his spy chief on national television this past week. Many are guessing that Putin is seemingly on his own in deciding to invade all of Ukraine. Had he been less isolated, or others with greater checks on his power, likely the invasion would not have occurred in the same capacity and with a greater chance for diplomacy.

All these factors have created a toxic cocktail that has poisoned the Russian state, saddled the people of Russia with a war on their neighbour and is causing near immeasurable suffering upon the Ukrainian people.

Make no mistake, the individual to blame for the horrific conflict is Vladimir Putin but it is crucial to acknowledge what could have been done to prevent the invasion. The West bears part of that burden, especially since it won’t be American or European blood spilt in this conflict. Part of the failure is an inability of the West to move from Cold War attitudes towards Russia since the collapse of the USSR, with NATO’s first expansion in 1991. Diplomat George Kennan, who was the architect of US Containment policy in the Cold War reacted to the first wave of NATO expansion with pessimism, “Don’t people understand? Our differences in the cold war were with the Soviet Communist regime. And now we are turning our backs on the very people who mounted the greatest bloodless revolution in history to remove that Soviet regime.” Successive US governments failed to include the new capitalist Russia into the West, even when there was a desire of Russia to do so. Nor have they had sufficient imagination to predict or anticipate Russian aggression despite consistent signs from the autocracy of its imperialist aspirations.

Prior to the invasion, it did not seem at all likely that Ukraine would ever be admitted into NATO, illustrated even now by the US and other’s unwillingness to deploy troops into the conflict. This is because it has never been central to either US or European interests in maintaining Ukrainian sovereignty, mostly due to Russia’s nature as a declining power and its inability to expand much of its power into western Europe. And so, we in the West must ask ourselves, if it was understood that Russia is unlikely to successfully occupy all of Ukraine, a fact shown starkly by historic examples of Russia itself as well as the US in Afghanistan, how has the situation deteriorated to the point it is at now?

It is the End of The World as We Know it. Russia’s invasion jeopardises the entire liberal democratic international order and all the institutions built to prevent war in Europe from ever occurring. What is left for us now is to reflect on the world we have lost, and how we can support peace for the world that comes next.

#Standwithukraine

A note from MIAS and the Editors-in-Chief

As a club that surrounds itself with current world events, MIAS finds it imperative that we speak on the current climate in international affairs.

MIAS understands the devastating impact the armed Russian invasion of Ukraine has and will continue to have on the lives of civilians and refugees.

We acknowledge that seeing the events on the news can be quite distressing, however we recognise our privileged position to present our viewpoint on the situation.

Therefore, we have compiled a list of charities you can donate to, and resources to stay informed on the crisis. You can find the links to these below: