On August 9th 2021, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released the first instalment of its Sixth Assessment Report, AR6. This landmark document will be the subject of deliberations during the COP26 Summit this November in Glasgow. It confirms what scientists have been saying for decades; that human activity is unequivocally responsible for the increases in the earth’s temperature.
The report is the culmination of six years of research by 234 authors from 66 countries. With 517 additional contributing authors, the report details the impacts that climate change will have on land and ocean temperatures, sea levels, weather patterns and Earth systems as a whole, focusing specifically on the timeframe between now and 2050. The report makes it clear that unless immediate action is taken and the international community commits to large-scale cuts to greenhouse gas emissions, it will be impossible to prevent the earth’s temperature from exceeding the 1.5°C target that was set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement.
The 1.5°C target and the Paris Agreement
At present, the earth’s temperature has increased by slightly more than 1°C since pre-industrial times, and is set to increase by 1.5°C before 2040. An increase of even 1°C is significant. When temperatures in Northern Europe dropped by approximately 1°C between 1300 and 1850, the region was plunged into what was dubbed the Little Ice Age, which had disastrous impacts, such as widespread famine and outbreaks of infectious diseases. We know that when global temperatures dropped by 2-4°C 21,000 years ago, the world was plunged into the last known Ice Age, also known as the Last Glacial Period (LGP), which lasted thousands of years, only ending 12,000 years ago. However, while the effects of the Little Ice Age were mostly regional and were not seen on a global scale like the effects of the LGP, the effects of a 2°C increase in global temperature will be experienced worldwide.
The projected effects of a 1.5°C increase in global temperature are significant. Sea levels will continue to rise past 2100 and there will be an irreversible loss to ice sheets in Antarctica and the northern Arctic. Further, the frequency of extreme heat waves, flooding and droughts will increase and entire biomes will change. The effects of a 2°C increase will be even more extreme; 99% of coral reefs will be irreparably damaged, the Arctic will experience ice-free summers every 10 years compared to every 100 years if the increase is limited to 1.5°C, and 13% of the earth’s ecosystems will undergo major shifts.
The impacts on human livelihoods will be just as severe. Crop yields will significantly decrease, infectious diseases such as malaria and lyme disease will spread faster and mass displacement of millions has already begun, with 55 million people being internally displaced due to climate disasters in 2020 alone. It has long been known that people living in the poorest countries will see the worst of these effects, as well as inhabitants of low-lying island nations and polar regions. Scenarios of warming will have different effects. For example, water scarcity will affect twice as many people under 2°C of warming, compared to a 1.5°C increase. Even if the 1.5°C target is met, 37% of the world’s population will be exposed to extreme heat every five years as opposed to 14%.
We are already seeing the effects of a warming world. Islands in the Pacific are already reporting rising sea levels that threaten to displace entire nations, and countries such as the Solomon Islands and Kiribati are already looking at relocation plans for their entire populations. Only three months ago severe heat waves crippled Pakistan, with recorded temperatures hotter than the human body is able to handle. A depressing record was set when the city of Jacobabad became the hottest city in the world in June this year. Many of those who were most affected by the heat wave had no access to air conditioning or cooling to alleviate the effects of the extreme heat. This was not the first time Pakistan has experienced extreme heat waves, with a heat wave in 2015 killing approximately 1300 people in Karachi, one of the country’s largest cities. While the discomfort of rising temperatures are easier to alleviate for people in richer countries with access to cooling and consistent electricity, millions of people who do not have access to these amenities are those who are most at risk of experiencing the fatality of these conditions.
The Paris Agreement, which has been signed by 190 nations and the European Union, aims to limit the global temperature increase to 2°C, with the overarching goal to cap this increase at 1.5°C. The Agreement’s viability has been questioned by researchers, with a 2017 study showing that there was only a 5% chance of limiting global warming to less than 2°C by 2100 as set out in the Agreement. Contributions to meeting the Agreement’s targets have also been disproportional, especially with regards to funding towards the Global Climate Fund. While Luxembourg, the contributor with the largest emissions per capita, also provides the largest per capita contribution towards the fund, the six countries with the highest emissions per capita that follow, which are the United States, Australia, Canada, Estonia, South Korea and Russia, all provide less than $10 USD per capita towards the fund. The United States provides the largest per capita amount amongst these countries, providing $9.30 USD per capita, while Russia merely provides $0.02 USD per capita. The willingness of major states to commit to the Agreement has also been an issue, with the United States withdrawing in November 2020, before rejoining in February 2021.
COP26 and what this means for the future
The COP26 Summit is a global climate change conference that will take place in Glasgow from 31 October to 12 November. It will be a chance for all members of the Kyoto Protocol to meet and discuss the impacts of climate change and how to combat them. The conference is a chance for world leaders to discuss the latest IPCC report and collaborate to find common ground in order to implement the recommendations that were set forward in the report.
COP26 has not escaped the attention of climate activists worldwide. Protests in Glasgow are due to take place during the conference and activists are concerned that commitments to achieve the 2030 targets set out in the Paris Agreement have not been met and that richer countries have not contributed enough to combat the effects of climate change. Currently, The Gambia is the only country on track to meet the reductions in emissions required of it under the 1.5°C target set out in the Paris Agreement. Only seven other countries come close to meeting their commitments, which are Costa Rica, Ethiopia, Kenya, Morocco, Nepal, Nigeria and the UK. With the majority of the world’s most powerful countries nowhere near achieving this goal, it’s hard to not be skeptical that we won’t be able to meet the benchmarks set in the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5°C.
The importance of COP26 and the findings of the IPCC report can’t be understated; this will most likely be the last IPCC report that will be published before we cross the 1.5°C threshold. UN Secretary General António Guterres stated earlier this year that the report is a “code red for humanity”, with each possible scenario set out by the report estimating that we will cross the 1.5°C mark in the 2030s.
There is still hope for our future, and while it is easy to fall into defeatist thinking when seeing the statistics set before us, there is still time to take action. Cutting global emissions by 45% by 2030 will most likely see the global temperature stabilise at a 1.5°C increase, and countries are increasingly committing to achieving net-zero emissions. While politicians such as Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce still have reservations about Australia committing to net zero emissions by 2050, Prime Minister Scott Morrison has agreed to attend the COP26 summit in November after weeks of hesitation. While Australia has not yet officially committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, members of the Liberal Party as well as the Opposition believe that this commitment will soon become official. While time is running out, it seems clear that Australia is finally close to taking a more decisive stance to combat climate change.
The COP26 Summit is the best chance world leaders have to discuss and take decisive action on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and it might be one of the last before the international community witnesses runaway climate change on a truly catastrophic scale. There is still time to prevent the worst effects of climate change. It is up to us to ensure that we do so while we still have the chance.
If you would like to learn more about climate change and COP26, Pivot cordially invites you to attend MIRSA & MIAS Present: Insights into COP26 and Beyond on Wednesday 27th of October.
