BY CAITLIN GRAHAM –
The region of Nagorno-Karabakh has been a sensitive one for decades. The small landlocked enclave rests between Azerbaijan and Armenia, two states who lay age-old claims to the disputed territory. Tensions have boiled over in the past, resulting in numerous wars and conflicts. However, the most recent war, lasting six weeks, added a new element to the fighting: the evident involvement of regional powerhouses Russia and Turkey. Age-old claims to the region are just scratching the surface of the recent war between Azerbaijan and Armenia, as power politics, regional alliances and foreign policy strategies played large roles in the previous military conflict of 1992.
With COVID-19 dominating media channels over the last year, the Nagorno-Karabakh military conflict fell off the radar, or at least did not make it far onto Australian shores. Tensions between the two states over the disputed area of Nagorno-Karabakh boiled over from September until November last year, pushing the Caucasus towards instability. Unlike previous wars, however, this one was relatively short-lived due to the influence of other states.
A history of confrontation
During the era of the Soviet Union, both states had been absorbed as republics within the USSR. Nagorno-Karabakh, a region that was already fiercely contested, was given semi-autonomous status within Azerbaijan, despite having a majority Armenian population. When the Soviet Union began to fall, the majority ethnic Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh voted to leave the Azerbaijan republic, sparking the war that lasted several years from the eighties to the mid nineties. This created a million displaced peoples and a death toll in the thousands.
In 1994, the war ended with an Armenian victory. Armenia claimed control over Nagorno-Karabakh, which was still internationally recognised as Azerbaijani territory. Azeris were ousted from their homes, as Nagorno-Karabakh autonomy was overshadowed by Armenian dominance. Armenian leaders pushed for unification of Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia.
Azerbaijani retaliation
The defeat was not taken lightly by Azerbaijan, who, in the wake of the war, invested heavily in their military capabilities. In 2015, Azerbaijan spent US$1,554 million on military expenditure. In 2019, expenditure reached US$2,173 million. On 27 September 2020, Azerbaijan launched air and ground attacks in Nagorno-Karabakh, marking the start of the new war.
The war and its implications
The 2020 war ended with negotiations between Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia in November. The brokered deal would see the Nagorno-Karabakh region return to Azerbaijan. There are many issues with this result because of the complex history and contradicting claims to the region. Firstly, the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave is predominantly ethnically Armenian, constituting 95% of the population. The fall of the Soviet Union and the proceeding land distribution could be considered a large factor in the dispute today. Secondly, the Armenian occupation from 1994-2019 forced many Azeris to leave their homes and the attempt to unify Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia, ignoring the historical prevalence of Nagorno-Karabakh as a semi-autonomous region of Azerbaijan. Thirdly, Nagorno-Karabakh opinions on secession have largely been ignored. In 1991, a vote on independence was overwhelmingly in favour of secession at 99%. However, independence has not been granted to the Nagorno-Karabakh population.
As previously mentioned, the dispute doesn’t solely involve Armenia and Azerbaijan. Regional hegemonic power Russia and rising power Turkey shaped the 2020 conflict and its outcome.
Turkish involvement:
Turkey officially called for an end to the conflict. However, their relationship with Azerbaijan suggests their motives lay elsewhere. Weapons deals, joint military exercises, access to the Black sea and a mutual dislike for Armenia are all factors as to why Turkey provided military support to Azerbaijan during the war. Turkey relies on Azerbaijan for access to the Black Sea, a major port to where they can access their energy needs. After the ceasefire was called, plans were announced to build a road stretching from Turkey to Azerbaijan, giving Ankara direct access to the Black Sea. This also allows the nations to bypass Iran and weaken their trade leverage. Further, Azerbaijan is one of the largest international investors in the Turkish economy, providing another reason why it was in Turkey’s best interest to assist Azerbaijan in the conflict.
At the regional level, Turkey is an emerging power, looking to influence politics in the Caucasus. As with many countries of late, Turkey has shifted its gaze East. This has led to it wanting to gain influence in Azerbaijan and also decrease Russian influence as the two powers fight diplomatically for supremacy.
Russian involvement:
In 1997 Russia and Armenia signed a treaty of friendship in the wake of rising tensions between Azerbaijan, Turkey and Armenia. The treaty assured Russian assistance in the case of an invasion from either side of landlocked Armenia. However, Russia chose not to act in favour of Armenia in 2020 during the escalation of the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Putin’s strategy was to keep relations with both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Despite having a friendship treaty with Armenia, Putin also maintains a close relationship with President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan. Similar to the Georgian-South Ossetian conflict in 2008, before Russian military intervened, Russia strived to be the mediator of the region and assert their role as a negotiator. They succeeded in stopping the violence and brokering a deal between the two nations, however, not without the involvement of Russian peacekeepers.
Thoughts for the future:
Without solid solutions, history usually repeats itself. The same can be imagined for the future of Nagorno-Karabakh. Negotiations are a band-aid solution. After the conflict Armenian citizens stormed a government building in a demonstration against the Prime Minister’s handling of the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute. In May, Azerbaijan forces were accused of advancing 3km into Armenia. Back in December, Human Rights Watch (HRW) reported Armenia launched missiles and utilities into populated Azeri villages. In March, HRW released another investigation claiming Azeri soldiers abused Armenian prisoners of war throughout the conflict.
Despite the official negotiations and the small diplomatic victories for both Turkey and Russia, the cracks are already showing and tensions are escalating. Proxy wars and bids for regional influence often dictate the politics of real people; people who want their culture, their ethnicity and life granted a safe home. Whilst analysing the political movements made during this conflict, it is paramount to remember the people of Nagorno-Karabakh who are (quite literally) stuck in the middle of this regional dispute.
