BY CHARLENE FERNANDO –
C.W COVID-19 related deaths and graphic imagery
India crossed the devastating milestone of 242,000 deaths on 10 May, following several consecutive days of over 400,000 COVID cases. Images of mass cremations and steep graphs have taken centre stage on news reports, amid fears that the true number could be far greater than reported – potentially 30 times higher, this equating to approximately half a billion cases nationally. Globally, there is a resounding question – how did it go so wrong for India?
COVID, Complacency and Misplaced Confidence
One of the Indian Government’s biggest mistakes was prematurely declaring victory over COVID-19. In January 2021, Prime Minister Narendra Modi stated:
“When the battle against COVID-19 just started, concern was raised that…India will get devastated due to the dearth of resources…we resisted the virus spread significantly and utilised the opportunity to improve our health infrastructure.”
India did take some precautions from early to mid-2020. The Government enacted a nationwide lockdown in March, and sealed borders for foreign and domestic travel. Only after phased lockdowns and ‘unlocking’ mechanisms were services eventually restored. Even with these measures 149,015 deaths were still recorded by the end of 2020.
As has been seen with other countries which suffered the effects of the pandemic more acutely, including the US, a recurring trend is the adamant refusal by leaders to heed the advice of scientists and medical practitioners, and this was certainly true in India. In early March 2021, a panel of Indian scientists warned Indian officials that a new and more virile variant of the virus was emerging, and in spite of this, no major restrictions were imposed to curb the virus’s spread.
Modi’s refusal to impose a national lockdown, but rather urging states to consider lockdowns as a final resort, even amid the surging cases is symptomatic of the broader attitude of complacency which arose after India gained relative control over the situation in January this year. A misplaced confidence that a second wave would not arise was manifested in numerous super-spreader events, including election rallies and religious gatherings, which were highly criticised for the lack of social distancing or masks.
The first part of Modi’s comment, regarding fears of a “dearth of resources”, proved to be almost prophetic, with the past few weeks seeing a significant strain placed on the country’s unprepared healthcare system. Oxygen supplies and beds at hospitals quickly ran out, with black markets emerging for COVID-19 therapeutic drugs and oxygen supplies. Crematoriums and cemeteries have also been inundated, as Delhi prepares to utilise a pet crematorium site for the final rites of humans.
India has scrambled to expedite its vaccine rollout, and as of 1 May, vaccine eligibility was opened to everyone aged 18 and above. However, shortages of the vaccine have already been reported. On average, 2.6 million doses per day are being administered, however it is estimated that at this pace, it will take over 2 years to vaccinate 75% of the population.
The Indian government has also exercised a serious error in judgement, implementing a policy which allows vaccine producers to sell half of their stock to private hospitals and state governments at a higher market rate. Initially, these vaccines were sold directly to the Indian Government for 150 rupees (approx. $2.50). The Government would then supply these to private hospitals and state governments. Amid this policy change, India’s two approved vaccine suppliers have announced substantial price increases. People aged between 18 to 45 will have to pay for vaccines, and it is concerning that liberalising the vaccine program may potentially neglect the most vulnerable, and in reality only be available for those who can afford it. 60% of India’s population live below the poverty line, and as such, may be forced to choose between the vaccine and providing for their households. Such a policy is more frustrating given the significant strain placed on a stretched-beyond-limit healthcare system, and as many opposition leaders have argued, the crisis may to some extent be alleviated by making the vaccine free for all.
The Government’s Response
What has exacerbated this public health catastrophe is the clear failure to put in place contingency plans following the first wave. Although the Indian Health Ministry sanctioned the construction of 162 oxygen plants as of October 2020, currently only 33 plants have been established. There has been an understandable rush to install the remaining plants, in reality however, this is simply a response rather than a proactive measure.
One would also expect the public health crisis to be by far what is on the Indian Government’s collective mind at present, and strategising how to minimise the tragic losses occurring daily. On the contrary, there appears to be a preoccupation with more superficial matters, such as how the Government is perceived. The increasingly authoritarian tendencies of the BJP Government have perhaps been most evidenced through this crisis, with numerous attempts at censorship and bullying. Twitter has blocked several tweets at the request of the Indian Government, which spoke critically of India’s handling of the pandemic. Indian media has also reported that the ruling BJP in the state of Uttar Pradesh threatened to punish individuals and hospitals who report shortages in oxygen or beds.
The increased threats that journalists are currently facing were noted by the Editors Guild of India in a joint statement, in which they opined:
“Besides the health risks borne out of such reporting, there have been additional pressures from some of the state governments and agencies that have threatened against independent reporting of the pandemic in an effort to control the media narrative.”
These actions have transcended India’s borders, with attempts to censor overseas media outlets too. For example, the Indian High Commission issued a rejoinder to The Australian newspaper, for an article it published portraying Modi in a negative light. Essentially, the notice told The Australian to publish said rejoinder in their newspaper, and to “refrain from publishing such baseless articles in the future”.
If the Indian Government had dedicated half its energy towards damage control for the public health crisis that continues to unfold, rather than monitoring and shutting down the criticisms of the Government that were playing out on Twitter and other media platforms, the severity of the situation may have been mitigated. Clearly, there is a misapprehension as to the order of priorities, and more attention is being diverted to the salvaging of global perceptions of the ruling BJP Government. Unless this is first rectified, a proper emergency response to the health crisis cannot be formulated.
International Aid
One silver lining amid this unimaginable tragedy is the way in which approximately 40 countries have rallied around India to provide aid and assistance. Australia has committed to send an initial support package of ventilators, masks, surgical gowns and hospital equipment, with oxygen supplies also being arranged. The US has also engaged in significant humanitarian efforts, committing approximate US$100 million in medical supplies, touting the possibility of sending doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine as well. Singapore, Germany and Russia are also sending oxygen supplies and ventilators.
One thing is unmistakably clear: the Indian Government simply must do more. Certainly, these cases will subside in the coming weeks and months as more stringent measures are put into place, however India cannot slip back into the cycle of complacency as it did earlier this year, once it sees a decline in cases and deaths. The Government cannot declare an early victory over the virus again, and it cannot maintain the overconfident attitude that they are prepared for all possibilities. As put by prominent Indian journalist Arundhati Roy:
“The system hasn’t collapsed. The government has failed. Perhaps ‘failed’ is an inaccurate word, because what we are witnessing is not criminal negligence, but an outright crime against humanity.”
