BY CAITLIN GRAHAM –
It is no secret that Russia’s President Vladimir Putin is attempting to consolidate his position as leader of Russia well into the future. He has held onto the presidency since 1999, with the only exception being Medvedev’s presidency from 2008-2012 in which Putin became Prime Minister. He has recently made a constitutional amendment that will allow him to continue his presidency for two additional terms – meaning Putin could continue to stay in power until 2036.
Whilst the referendum was passed with 78% in support, disdain for Putin is increasing in Russia, despite no other solid opposition existing. This slip in support is due to a range of factors: his wildly unpopular pension reforms; the ongoing instability in Chechnya; the weakening economy; the fall out from Putin’s COVID-19 policies. These factors are all challenging Putin’s ability to maintain popular support in Russia, even in rural areas which have never previously seen large-scale protests against Putin. Another significant source of irritation for the Kremlin has been the rise of Alexei Navalny, whose now constant political presence has come to embody the rising tide of opposition to Putin’s administration.
To understand Alexei Navalny’s impact on Russian politics, it is paramount to look at the existing political structures in Russia.
Russia Today
Many Russians support Putin because he has campaigned vigorously for a stronger Russia after the fall of the Soviet Union. Since leading Russia, Putin has absorbed its media channels that essentially work for the Kremlin and their interests. Newspapers such as ‘Russia Today’ suppress public opinion and ignore domestic turmoil in favour of reporting positively on Putin’s policies. Putin has jailed opposition and elites in Russia who have not complied with and supported his presidency. Come election time, there are many reports of voting fraud that assist Putin in retaining his throne.
Russians’ opinions of Putin are very conflicted. Some support his presidency, others denounce and a large portion are on the fence. This is where Navalny comes in.
Who is Alexei Navalny?
Navalny, a real-estate lawyer, first gained the attention of Russians in 2006 when he posted a blog about corruption within the Russian government. He proved corruption occurred within the government by exposing the state-owned transport company Transneft for the embezzlement of $4 billion of taxpayer dollars.
Navalny had a role in organising anti-Putin protests in 2011. The state-owned media companies ignored the protest and many of the organisers were either jailed, exiled or murdered as a result. Protesters were met with violence and many arrested.
In 2013, Navalny ran for Mayor of Moscow sparking controversy as he has previously voiced nationalist, racist and xenophobic remarks. Despite this, many turned to Navalny as he is considered the only possible opposition to Putin’s rule. Navalny was gaining a following before he was charged with embezzlement, a tactic used by the Putin Government to oust opposition to the Kremlin. Navalny ended up losing the election, but continued to upload videos to his website and youtube channel criticising the Russian government and Putin’s powerful elitist supporters. Navalny then ran for President against Putin. However, he was poisoned by a known nerve agent often used by the KGB and Russian intelligence agencies. Navalny survived, recovering in Germany. Yet, he was simultaneously declared ineligible for the election due to infringing the parole of his previous embezzlement charges. Navalny persuaded his supporters to synchronise their votes to support one of the dummy candidates propped up by Putin, which showcased the power of the resistance he was fostering.
In early 2021, Navalny returned to Russia with his wife, where they were met with police who arrested Navalny on his arrival. Navalny was sentenced to three-and-a-half years’ imprisonment due to leaving the country when poisoned and thus violating the parole from his embezzlement charges. Since then, he has attempted to appeal his sentence, tried to sue the Russian government for denying him the right to study the Koran and, in the last 20 days as of writing, has initiated a hunger strike which has left him on the verge of death.
Navalny’s actions have resulted in widespread protests against Putin as people call for his release.
Navalny as a symbol
Putin has not seen this kind of relentless resistance to his Presidency since its inauguration in 1999. Currently, Moscow’s prosecution office is attempting to label organisations who support Navalny as extremist, and many protesters have been arrested by Russian forces, who have not shied away from the use of violence.
Navalny has become a figurehead for anti-Putin sentiment within the country, particularly within the youth. His revelations of Russia’s corruption have been released via online platforms such as his blog and Youtube channel and his messages have been perpetuated by Russian youth via social media, most notably via TikTok, the popular video app.
What is the future for Navalny, Putin and Russia?
Beyond domestic politics, Putin may face concerns from international actors who are listening to the noise Navalny has been making. Putin’s perceived authoritarian rule is also called into question by the fact that one man can spark a movement that may challenge the stability of his office.
The future for Navalny is unknown. However, considering his supporters’ reactions when Russian officials arrested Navalny and the increasing number of protests occuring in his support, it is unlikely Navalny will die in prison. The U.S. has even warned of consequences if Navalny dies in incarceration. His sentence will continue long into the future and whether the movement he has sparked will subside in his absence is yet to be revealed.
Whether anti-Putin Russians are pro-Navalny is a different question — what he is selling is not necessarily a political arch-rival to Putin. What he is providing is the chance for everyday Russians to regain control of their nation’s politics and to hold the corrupt elites of the country accountable.
