Read Pivot’s background article on the Syrian Civil War here.
3,652 days. 400,000 deaths. 5,600,000 people have fled Syria. 6,000,000 internally displaced.
The Syrian Civil War has reached a new milestone. 15 March signifies a decade since the wars’ inception in 2011. Regrettably, you may have noticed news and media coverage of the war has fallen off the radar. Due to the lack of heavy Western intervention the war has raged on unbeknownst or ignored by most of the world. On 5 March this year, missile strikes killed one person in Northern Syria. Recently, teachers have been forcibly conscripted into the fight, leaving half-a-million students without educators. Fighting echoes on in Idlib. The war, for its longevity, is likely to continue into the future. The United Nations Secretary-General even stated that “there is no military solution for the Syrian Crisis”. However, there may be a humanitarian one.
Politics and Military
The war and its many participants is complex and multidimensional. The war began as an offshoot of pro-democracy protests sweeping through the Middle East and North Africa, known as the Arab Spring in 2011. However, the war has surpassed a domestic conflict, instead becoming the stage for a proxy war between regional and hegemonic powers.
Russia has continuously provided support to the Assad regime; officially through vetoing action to provide Syrians with aid and unofficially through reports Russian officials have been involved in major war crimes against civilians including air strikes and the use of chemical weaponry. For perspective, Human Rights Watch reported 18 unlawful acts committed by the Syrian-Russian military alliance in Idlib alone between January and March 2020. That is a significant number in only three months considering the war has been active for another one hundred and seventeen months.
Although the United States were heavily involved in Syria, particularly in the earlier stages of the war, US involvement has dwindled as the war on terrorism has progressed. In 2018 President Trump removed a portion of the remaining troops from Syria claiming that ISIS had been defeated. However, ISIS has not completely vanished and has regained strength due to the absence of US intervention. Furthermore, the Kurdish led Syrian Democratic Council (SDC) continues searching for civillians kidnapped by ISIS without the help of the US. Biden’s stance on the war in Syria is yet to be revealed.
Turkey’s stake in the conflict has a lot to do with the Kurdish region and ethnic group. The Kurds are one of the largest ethnic groups in the world “without a state of their own”. Unfortunately, the Kurdish region stretches across many already established borders including Turkey which causes conflict between the Kurdish Military and Turkey.
Other Arab nations such as Iran, Gulf states and Lebanese militia group Hezbollah all have varying inputs in the war such as providing arms, communication and funding to various militant groups who agree with their ideologies, religious and strategic values.
Impact on Syrians
The civil war has had almost unimaginable consequences for Syrians. The Syrian economy is in ruins with Human Rights Watch reporting that due to ongoing conflict, the Syrian economy has entered a freefall, leaving many starving and without basic needs such as medicine. The Assad regime has prevented the delivery of aid to help eleven million people; targeting those living in rebel held areas.
In the beginning of the war, the rebels’ victory looked promising. However, with the Russian backed Assad regime and the extraction of US powers and support for rebel groups, Assad’s control has regained momentum. This has forced many asylum seekers to move domestically and flee internationally. Many international refugees have sought refuge in neighbouring countries such as Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and Egypt. Turkey has hosted a significant portion of Syrian refugees without sufficient international assistance, which resulted in Turkey opening the gateways for refugees to travel to Europe, igniting the 2015 European migrant crisis. On a positive note, only five percent of Syrians who have fled the country live in refugee camps. Yet, this does not equate to refugees living in stable situations.
The future for Syrian refugees is largely unknown. Job opportunities are scarce, education is limited and largely informal and most Syrian refugees are living in poverty..
Hope for the future
Armed conflict continues; concentrated in the north western region of Syria and in Idlib. Opposition militias and groups have largely been pushed out of the city and Al-Assad has clung tightly to power. Victory has not been claimed and the war has not ceased, but as of the ten year milestone, it is a probable victory for the Assad regime.
Once the fighting is over, there are many questions that pose problems for the future of Syria.
Firstly, the use of chemical weapons on civilians in Syria raises many questions about the future for global chemical weapon proliferation. Syria is indeed a member of the Chemical Weapons Convention but it is not complying with their responsibilities. It is suspected that Syria has more chemical weapons stockpiled than it has declared and has used weapons against civilians, raising questions around how to enforce international compliance. Furthermore, it is unbeknownst if the international community will hold Assad accountable for the war crimes he is accused of committing.
Secondly, if the Al-Assad regime continues, will the human rights atrocities (torture, disapearences, air raids on civillians) and restrictions on freedom of speech and expression continue? Will refugees return home to rebuild their communities sacrificed in the fight for freedom? Will other nations hold Assad accountable? What will be Biden’s foreign policy in Syria?
Thirdly, who will help rebuild Syria? As we look towards the future it is paramount to consider who will pay to rebuild Syria and what ideological impacts and national interests they will bring to the country. Although Russia is strategically betting on Assads’ victory, it is unlikely they will be able to assist in the restoration of Syria because of their own weak economy. Will the US assist an ideological enemy in paying for his dictator led Syria? Assad has stated he only wants investors who supported his regime; yet only a handful of other Arab countries fit the description and many are wary about increasing Iranian power indirectly through supporting Assad in rebuilding Syria.
The reality for many Syrians is not about what will come tomorrow, but instead what will become of today. Although some Western perspectives view refugees as trying to settle in new countries for a better life, many Syrians just want to return home. A Syrian refugee Ma’moun Mersal stated that he is “unable to think about [his] kids’ futures because [he is] afraid about what is happening today.” But Syrians are strong and courageous and they are resilient.
We have been aware of and we have also forgotten the war in Syria over the past 10 years. Now that this horrific milestone has been brought back to our attention and our news feeds, the most important question is what are we going to do about it?
