*Note: The C-Word (the Virus) and the U.S. President Election will not be mentioned in this article.
2020 has been a year of highs and lows. One new story dominated headlines. This year-in-review is a reflection on those stories which were not covered in mainstream media – forgotten about stories which were overshadowed by other major events.
In countries which are often forgotten about, major stories occurred that had massive geopolitical ramifications. Ranging from political instability to industrial growth, environmental destruction to multilateral disdain – 2020 has brought about significant disturbances to the international order.
Belarusian free and fair elections
Belarus, near the heart of the former Soviet sphere, has been under growing scrutiny by the international community for not respecting democratic principles through its elections. Alexander Lukashenko, notably referred to as “Europe’s last dictator” has held onto power for another term in what many claim is a fraudulent election in which Lukashenko persecuted opposition and used state forces against other candidates.
Held on 9 August, Lukashenko supposedly defeated independent Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya garnering 80.10% of the vote in contrast to Tsikhanouskaya’s 10.12%. This is disputed by the opposition who claim Tsikhanouskaya, who was exiled to Lithuania after the election, won the election with around 60% of the vote. Appeals to the Central Election Commission have been filed seeking a new election and for the result to be invalidated. This was followed by numerous countries, including the European Union, imposing sanctions and condemning the elections. In contrast, Russia and China, allies of Lukashenko, congratulated him on his election to a sixth term.
In response to the elections, violence ensued in the streets of Minsk and other major cities. This led to city lockdowns while security forces and police used tear gas, stun grenades, and rubber bullets against protesters. Around 1,000 people were arrested during the protests.
The next elections are set to take place in 2025 with Lukashenko already indicating he would resign and seek new elections if a new constitution was adopted. Tsikhanouskaya also has said she would lead a transitional government under international supervision. Nevertheless, Minsk is still under a cloud of uncertainty while Lukashenko continues if nothing else occurred.
Peru’s three presidents
Many people in Australia think having five Prime Ministers in five years is a poor reflection on the governance of a country. Imagine three leaders in one week. This occurred in Peru from 9 November until 17 November with the removal of President Martin Vizcarra by the Peruvian Congress, then the resignation of President Manuel Merino due to massive pressure from nationwide protests, and then the installation of President Francisco Sagasti Hochhausler.
Peru has had turbulent political stability over the last decade. This was rooted in the tenure of former President Pedro Pablo Kucynski who had disputes with the Congress. His hand was forced in September 2017 when Congress passed a motion of no confidence against the Prime Minister and forced Kucynski to overhaul the cabinet. Kucynski then resigned in March 2018 and was replaced by anti-corruption focused First Vice President Vizcarra.
In pursuit of anti-corruption policies, political leader Keiko Fujimori was arrested in October 2018, with the Fujimorists in Congress turning against Vizcarra. Tensions intensified on 30 September 2019 with President Vizcarra dissolving Congress. In response, Congress suspended President Vizcarra and appointed Vice President Araoz as interim president. Araoz then resigned the next day which led to Vizcarra calling for elections on 26 January 2020.
Vizcarra’s removal shook many as he had been fairly popular due to his anti-corruption policies, enjoying an average approval in October 2020 of 58%. Protests have broken out in Lima and other major cities in Peru, with thousands fighting the removal. For now, Sagasti will remain in power until the conclusion of the original term on 28 July 2021, with Vizcarra barred from seeking re-election.
Oil prices collapse
Oil prices in early-2020 dropped significantly due to a feud being Russia and Saudi Arabia. Commencing on 8 March, Saudi Arabia facilitated a 65% quarterly fall in the price of oil, with Russia retaliating. This was rooted in Russia-Saudi Arabia cooperation agreement in the management of the price of oil, colloquially known as OPEC+, due to the increase in U.S. shale oil production.
Saudi Arabia unexpectedly discounted the price of a barrel of oil by $6 – $8 per barrel. This facilitated the largest price decrease since the 1991 Gulf War, with Brent crude oil alone falling by around 30% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 plummeting by 7% by mid-day trading.
The United States intervened in early-April with President Trump threatening to remove U.S. military support from Saudi Arabia if they did not cut their oil production. Concurrently, Russian President Putin sought an extraordinary OPEC meeting to cut production by 10 million barrels per day. Both eventually agreed to this decrease.
The price war caused major economic ramifications for both Saudi Arabia and Russia. Saudi Arabia sought an increase of its debt ceiling from 30% to 50% and cut spending from 6-9%. Russia also revised budget estimates, with its original surplus of 930 billion roubles becoming a deficit. The rouble also decreased by 30% during this period. Other countries such as Norway, Nigeria, Iraqi and Kuwait either considered or implemented currency devaluation while also changing their oil production levels.
Peace in the Middle East?
The Trump Administration has touted in its final days it has brought peace to the Middle East. This is in response to the normalisation of relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Sudan. Relations were also normalised with Bhutan and Morocco, with the United States acting as a mediator – a similar role they played in facilitating the normalisation of economic relations between Serbia and Kosovo this year.
The Abraham Accords, the joint statement from the UAE, Israel and the U.S. marked a major turning point in Israel-Arab relations. It opened a pathway for other Arab countries to recognise Israel and establish diplomatic relations, with Oman delaying their decision until the inauguration of President-Elect Biden. One clear indication of pathways to further diplomatic normalisation was evident through Saudi Arabia allowing Israel to fly in their airspace for flights to and from the UAE.
The agreements did come at a cost to the United States. In respect of the Morocco normalisation, the U.S. had to recognise Morocco’s claims to Western Sahara. The U.S. also agreed to remove Sudan from its list of state sponsors of terrorism. However, the U.S. did receive compensation from Sudan for victims of their terror, totalling $335 million.
While Israel has normalised relations in a quick succession, there is still significant work to be done that will involve demanding and experienced diplomatic strategy. While normalisation with Oman seems to be on the table, diplomatic relations with countries like Saudi Arabia seems quite a while off normalisation. It will now be up to the future Biden Administration whether the United States continues this mediation role.
Extreme weather conditions
Perhaps a distant memory for most of us in Australia, but 2020 started with hot and dry conditions fueling an intense bushfire season. These intense fires left communities devastated, destroyed, and unable to prepare for what was to come in 2020. According to the Australian Department of Home Affairs, more than 12.6 million hectares across Australia have been burned and emitted 434 million tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. And if we weren’t directly affected by the fires, many of us were affected by the bushfire smoke carried across the country. According to a poll conducted by the Australian National University, 11.3 million Australian adults, or 57 per cent of the Australian adult population, were physically affected by smoke from the bushfires.
However, Australia wasn’t the only country in 2020 to have faced extreme fire conditions. In the West Coast of the United States of America, wildfires that mirrored the bushfires in Australia emerged. In the state of California, the wildfire season had killed 31 people, destroyed or damaged more than 10,000 buildings and burned a staggering 1.6 million hectares. Similarly, the wildfires raised concerns regarding air quality as clouds of ash and smoke spread across the region.
On the opposite side of things, other countries faced different kinds of extreme weather. In particular, parts of Asia felt an unusually rainy monsoon season. According to the International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, floods have affected nearly 10 million people in South Asia leading to the destruction of crops and farmland, forcing evacuations, and killing at least 550 people in Bangladesh, India, and Nepal. In the region, floods are common and have traditionally been essential for agricultural productivity. However, the 2020 monsoon season has seen severe humanitarian fallouts.
While these weather conditions are not necessarily new to the region, 2020 showcased unprecedented and unexpected extremities, making it difficult to respond and prevent due to everything else going on in the world and limited resources and attention. As the globe continues to warm, we can only expect conditions to intensify until climate change becomes a political reality.
Racial tensions fuelled in 2020
After George Floyd’s death in the hands of police officers in the United States of America, a global conversation on race and race issues was ignited. The video’s release capturing Floyd’s death initially led demonstrators in Minneapolis to pour into streets for several nights. Sooner than later, the movement for justice against police brutality resulted in protests occurring in other cities in the United States, such as Los Angeles, New York, Boston, and Louisville. Many of these protests drew comparisons to other instances of police brutality and violence against the black community, highlighting that Floyd’s death was not an anomaly but a deep-rooted and ongoing issue.
Protests on this issue and the Black Lives Matter movement attached to it have occurred in the past, but not with this level of intensity and reach. During this time, social media accounts were used not to share brunch pictures or cute pets, but many took to their accounts to express support for the Black Lives Matter movement, share racial injustice stories, and inform. This included resources, petitions and links for donations on a huge scale, which traditional news outlets often do not provide. According to the Pew Research Center, social media was a catalyst in leading social media users to change their views on political and social issues such as those centred around race.
However, the global conversation on race issues went beyond online platforms and instead saw investigations into racial injustices in other parts of the world. In Australia, tens of thousands of people marched through cities and towns for Black Lives Matter protests. These protests were to express support to the movement in America and draw attention to the comparable racial profiling, police brutality, and deaths in police custody towards Indigenous people in Australia. The parallels were also seen in the calls for defunding police, destruction of statues and monuments of colonisers, and conversations on a rewrite of history curriculums.
The Black Lives Matter movement also resonated in the Latin American region. In particular, instances of police violence in Brazil have been deemed similar to the United States. According to the Latin America Working Group, in 2019, 5,800 people were killed by police in Brazil; over 75 per cent were Black. Similarly, in 2020, Brazil saw one of the largest anti-police brutality protests in Rio as a response to 14-year-old, João Pedro, shot dead by police bursting into the home. Again, it has indicated police violence towards certain groups in Brazilian society and the systemic disadvantages and racial injustice that Black Brazilians face.
It’s unfortunate that it has taken a publicised death in America to spark a larger conversation about race and race issues around the world. It has highlighted that this systemic issue knows no borders and is one that will influence domestic policies and its impacts on social cohesion even in 2021.
Brexit is done?
31 January marked the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union. With Brexit leading to the resignation of two prime ministers, two elections, and countless protests, the UK and Europe felt mixed emotions at the time of departure. However, this was not the end of the story, with the UK and EU still needing to map out the terms of their future trade relationship – an ambitious task to undertake in 11 months.
In what can be dubbed ‘Miracle on 10 Downing Street’, a deal was reached at the last minute on 24 December. Agreed at what can be described as rapid speed, the Agreement covers around 49% of the UK’s international trade. Called a Canada style deal, the UK will not be in the internal market while it will still need to closely align with EU regulatory requirements and standards. Failure to do so by either side will result in international arbitration, suspension of parts of the trade deal, and potential penalties.
The major sticking point of the deal was the issue of fisheries, which hampered a final Agreement in the eleventh hour. While the EU sought a 14 year transition period and the UK a five-year transition for fisheries’ regulations, a five-year transition was agreed after which EU boats can be excluded from UK waters. Fishing rights will then need to be negotiated on a regular basis.
The UK also retained other privileges in the EU, such as the right to drive using a UK drivers licence on EU roads, along with protections for state health care for British nationals. However, financial services were omitted from the Agreement, an industry worth around 7% of the UK’s GDP. This means there is still a big question mark and major dilemmas for the City of London heading into 2021.
So long 2020 – You will not be missed
Besides a certain news story which has consumed our lives, 2020 has been interesting from a geopolitical perspective. With political instability, environmental harm, and further changes to global economic dynamics, the past 12 months have been far from what was expected. While we live during polarising times fraught with strife and intolerance for different opinions, it is difficult to find someone who is sad to see 2020 end.
On behalf of Pivot and the Monash International Affairs Society, we would like to wish you a Happy New Year. We hope 2021 is a year of much joy and prosperity for all.
We would also like to thank all the Pivot writers for their contributions in 2020. We look forward to reading so many fantastic pieces in the New Year and following international developments during these unprecedented times.
Lastly, we would like to thank our readers who have read, liked, commented and shared our articles, growing our readership and spreading the opinions and perspectives of our writers. It is our hope in 2021 that we have further engagement so Pivot can facilitate discussions on matters of global importance.
– Ryan Attard, President
– Hamah Hosen, Vice President
