250 years.
The average age of an empire, from conception to crumble. Some empires live a short life and end up as a mere sentence in the pages of history, while others endure for centuries and have nowhere enough pages recounting their rise or fall.
The last empire that fell was the Soviet Union. Born amidst war and from a revolution of the people, the Soviet empire endured the Great Depression, an invasion from Nazi Germany and a bloodbath on the eastern front of World War 2, but could not sustain an ideological war against the west. It could no longer instigate conflict in bordering regions to maintain its sphere of influence and it could not maintain its own integrity, thus, one by one the republics declared independence. With nothing more to be done, Gorbachev resigned and rendered all Soviet institutions defunct.
In 1991, in the wake of the fragmentation and dissolution of the Soviet Union, the unipolar moment was here and there had never been a country with such immense power.
The United States stood poised, the western world flanking it, without any other country to rival it. Ancient empires and old kingdoms could not even compare to the might of the US. As the Twin Towers fell in September 2001, the country was able to rally allies and old foes to its side and could swing its diplomatic and military weight as it willed.
In 2003 it did, despite more than 36 million people protesting against war, the US with its ‘Coalition of the Willing’ invaded Iraq on claims that they had weapons of mass destruction (a claim that was later proved to have been manufactured). The status of the US as a superpower in a unipolar world empowered them to make this move. The Iraqi invasion also marked the most interventionist the US had been.
To reach this unipolar moment, the height of the American empire, took travelling on a long road.
With the Declaration of Independence in 1776, the US has sought to expand not only its territory but its influence as well. The Manifest Destiny took the original colonies westwards subjugating and slaughtering many Native American nations, coming into conflict with the colonial powers of Europe, and purchasing vast swaths of land for an absolute bargain. The Monroe Doctrine established an American sphere of influence over both the Americas, forbidding any European country to interfere on the continent. Later in the century, the US waged war against Spain and took control over Cuba, Guam, Puerto Rico and the Phillipines, establishing footholds across the Pacific and asserting their dominance in the Americas.
By the end of the 19th century, the American empire had already established itself as a military great power. In the 20th century it would become an economic and cultural great power despite trying its best to remain isolated.
The New York Stock Exchange plunged the world into darkness as the Great Depression brought economies crumbling, pushing millions into unemployment and starving many more. It also resulted in significant social and political changes in many countries, for better or for worse.
The American entrance into World War 2 turned the tide for the allies, from the D-Day landings to the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. As the world sought to recover and rebuild, Americans used the opportunity to fashion the international order so as to entrench their hegemony. The Marshall Plan funnelled American money into western Europe through grants and loans, tying Allies and former Axis countries to the US, rebuilding their industries, and re-starting international trade. The construction of the international monetary, governance, and security systems was led by the US, ensuring they sat at the head of the table, and American culture was broadcast through radio, television, and on the upcoming internet—American power was to be protected against the onslaught from communism and the Soviet Union.
And we know the American empire endured the Cold War.
Nonetheless, we have seen cracks form in these systems and in the American projection of their power as their domestic politics shifted. This was first brought to the fore with the election of Barack Obama who promoted a less interventionist foreign policy, denouncing the Iraq War and proposing to withdraw American troops from active fronts. As conflicts arose and international relations fractured, Obama’s reluctance to immediately take leadership which the US had historically assumed meant it diminished American relevance, on the battlefield and during peace talks. The greatest failure of all was Obama’s failure to respond to the Syrian Civil War—the nearly decade-long insurrection continues still. Other conflicts have broken out in the Middle East. Authoritarian governments have risen in Europe and in South America, suppressing civil liberties and freedoms, unopposed by the ‘leader of the free world’. Chinese foreign policy is moulding the international system to their advantage without anybody rivalling it.
Through the Obama Administration, the American empire began withdrawing from the international stage, and his successor has only helped accelerate this process. Donald Trump’s presidency, despite all differences, is on the same trajectory as his predecessor.
What non-Americans failed to see during the years of Obama was that despite outward appearances of progress, hope, and change, the domestic issues underlying the election of Obama continued to grow. The global financial crisis of 2008 only served to exacerbate them. Economic, social and racial inequalities—coupled with systemic racism pushed the richest American further away from the poorest every year. While the stock markets make headlines with record-breaking corporate valuations and profits, the American working class and poor lack access to affordable healthcare, do work for an abysmal minimum wage and little benefits, all while the basic cost of survival goes up.
These conditions have been laid bare as the coronavirus pandemic spreads like wildfire—more than 2 million American have contracted COVID-19 and more than 114,000 have died as of writing this. More than 20 million Americans lost their job and had to rely on an insufficient social safety net—some with little or no savings had no other option than to continue working to put food on the table even as it posed a risk to their own life. Forced to make a choice a between staying at home to protect their health or going to work to make ends meet, produced a tinderbox vulnerable to going aflame any time.
Then an unarmed George Floyd was mercilessly killed by the police in broad daylight.
More than a month since, the chant ‘no peace, no justice’ still rings out in cities across the country. Thousands are still on the streets, police brutality has only worsened and has been exposed through social media, the White House complex has been fortified, reminiscent of a country experiencing an insurrection. There was the Occupy Movement in 2008, but the current protests have surpassed it both in size and significance.
The government is now paralysed to either address the pandemic or the protests—partisan politics prevents any bipartisanship and a heightened distrust of the government means there’s little political capital for a resolution. With further decisiveness being propagated from the White House when people need a clear and distinct voice, the tide is turning.
The American empire is now hurtling towards becoming a failed state.
And all of this is happening during a presidential election year—no one has more on the line than Trump. Election Day in November will decide the future course of America.
A Biden victory would sweep the Democrats back into power, the side of politics in America more sympathetic to addressing racial inequality and the economic and health crises, but Biden also represents the Obama Administration, a time where inequalities grew nurturing the conditions for Trump to get elected in the first place. The health, racial, and justice crises currently in full swing speak to deeper systemic causes—issues which require root and branch reform and a review of everything that is American society. Would Biden and the Democrats be up for that challenge or would they squander the opportunity to do so like they did addressing the GFC—sustaining the conditions that caused the crisis?
A second Trump term would lock in the current trajectory of American democracy—distrust in government institutions and faith in the democratic system would be damaged beyond repair, especially if he is elected without a majority of the popular vote again. The past 6 months have shown Trumps inability to level with the American people and speak with integrity or honesty—in the face of protests at the front doors of the White House, he hid in the bunker; to visit St John’s Church, police tear-gassed and assaulted Americans indiscriminately; asked questions about his response, he shuts up journalists and simply walks away from press conferences.
This year Americans will celebrate the 244th anniversary of their independence and there is very little hope that the course of the US will shift dramatically no matter the election result. The once great empire, both wager of war and keeper of peace, is no more.
