Just three months ago Ireland had an election but amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, the election was largely drowned out in the mainstream news. However, something very important happened as Sinn Féin won the popular vote.
For those not familiar in Irish politics, Sinn Féin is an Irish republican party dedicated to the reunification of the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. This in itself is nothing out of the ordinary for an Irish political party however, is Sinn Féin’s associations which have caused the most controversy. It is generally accepted that Sinn Féin and the Irish Republican Army (IRA) play different roles in the Irish republican moment, but are essentially two sides of the same coin.
Who are Sinn Féin?
Founded in 1905 at the height of the Irish independence movement, Sinn Féin – which translates to “We Ourselves” – was established as an Irish nationalist and republican party. However, Sinn Féin is best known as the political arm of the IRA during the Troubles. This refers to the 30-year period during 1968 and 1998 where the conflict between the nationalists and unionists was rife in both the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland.
Sinn Féin acted as the political representative of the IRA during the Troubles, which culminated in the Good Friday Agreement in 1998. While Sinn Féin have sought to distance themselves from the IRA in the 21st century, the violent legacy of the Troubles has kept coming back to bite. In early 2020, Ireland’s police chief declared that Sinn Féin is overseen by the army council of the IRA.
So how did Sinn Féin make it into mainstream politics?
Previously considered to be on the extreme left, the party has moved to the centre-left on the political spectrum. You might ask what caused this surge in support for a party that had previously been considered extremist? A housing crisis.
Triggered by homelessness, soaring rent prices and a generation of young workers who are unable to secure adequate housing, Sinn Féin suddenly found themselves mainstream. As part of their election promises, Sinn Féin promised to build 100,000 public houses to end the youth housing crisis. As a result, Sinn Féin has been able to reinvent itself.
Sinn Féin focused their electoral campaign on the concept of change. Indeed, a study found that one in five of Sinn Féin Facebook posts over the course of the election referred to ‘change’. Presenting itself as an alternative to the current establishment, Sinn Féin was able to engage with a younger demographic. Their marketing campaign appears to have been successful, Sinn Féin had 10 times more engagement on Facebook than any other party during the election campaign. Sinn Féin’s voice of change struck a chord with the collective discontent of younger voters. They followed the playbook of recent successful political campaigns that have appealed to a shift in the establishment along with clever social media use.
With a 10 per cent swing from the 2016 general election, Sinn Féin were successful in convincing voters of their cause. Sinn Féin leader, Mary Lou McDonald declared the outcome as “something of a revolution in the ballot box.” The result was a ‘protest vote’ by a younger generation of Irish voters who found that the two-party system had neglected their basic needs.
But how have voters forgotten about Sinn Féin’s association with the violence of the IRA? Author Deaglán de Bréadún declared “officially the IRA hasn’t been active since 1997. That’s 23 years – a lot of voters wouldn’t have been born then or were too young at the time to remember it now.” In just one generation, Sinn Féin has been able to move into mainstream politics.
Are Sinn Féin in government?
Not quite.
Sinn Féin won the most votes with 24.5 per cent, Fianna Fáil followed with 22 per cent and Fine Gael with 21 per cent. Indeed, this was the first time that neither Fianna Fáil nor Fine Gael – the two main parties in Ireland – won the most votes. What we have seen in Ireland is a rejection of the two-party system; the predominant operation in many democracies.
However, Sinn Féin did not gain the 80 seats required to form a government. None of the parties even managed to get half of that. Lengthy negotiations are now underway to form a coalition government. If the 2016 election is anything to go by, this could take a couple of months.
With the two main parties refusing to form a coalition with Sinn Féin, their options are limited. As a result, Sinn Féin has proposed a broad left coalition that includes the Greens, Labour and other minor parties and independents. However, the likelihood of getting so many parties to compromise and sign onto one agreement seems unlikely.
It seems most likely that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will form a coalition. In April, the leaders of these two parties signed off on framework agreement. If their party members endorse such an agreement, the two parties will then present it to the Greens, Labour, Social Democrats and some independents in order to get the 80 seats required to form government.
Accordingly, it appears unlikely that Sinn Féin will be able to form a government. Though this does not detract from the success of Sinn Féin at the ballot box. With Sinn Féin securing the most primary votes, Ireland could be at the dawn of a new political age.
