War. It never changes.
While this statement may be true regarding the nature of warfare, the way wars are fought are changing rapidly. The world is facing the dawn of a new age where new weapons and dimensions to war will define the globe during the twenty-first century and beyond. Central to this is one weapon: the precision-guided munition.
Operation Desert Storm, otherwise known as the First Gulf War, was the event that established the dominance of American global power following the demise of its arch enemy, the Soviet Union. It saw a hundred hour blitzkrieg ground campaign following a coordinated air and naval bombardment by new precision-guided munitions (PGMs). Many noted this new weapon, but few understood the implications. The innovation of PGMs ranks as a defining moment in human history. Just as Greece was catapulted to glory with the phalanx, Europe conquered the world with the gun and mankind as a whole unlocked the power of the atom with the nuke, the PGM will redefine the world for generations to come.
PGM’s allowed for targets to be destroyed rapidly with little collateral damage. While PGMs during Desert Storm were relatively slow, the advent of the hypersonic missile early last year will allow nations to accurately strike enemy targets within minutes. A hypersonic based on the East coast of America could hit a tank in Germany within half an hour. They are only getting faster and more precise.
As a result, the aircraft carrier is growing obsolete. With hypersonics able to smash through the Aegis missile defense system (which costs ~1.8 billion dollars each) with ease and sink a carrier within seconds, there will be no benefit in risking such expensive bohemeths on the seas. Naval power will begin to be regulated to cheap and mobile missile cruisers and submarines.
Similarly, improvements in anti tank guided missiles (ATGMs), perhaps even to the level of hypersonic ATGMs will render tanks obsolete. Unable to hold ground, tanks will be phased out in favour of the humble infantryman. The average infantryman in the 21st century will have to be strengthened to gain an edge in combat. Exoskeletons, already under development by leading militaries, will allow the infantryman to hit harder, run faster and travel longer.
As the carrier and tank gets phased out, oil will lose its importance in warfare. Exoskeletons will require electrical power, not oil. The great logistical challenge of the twenty-first century will be how to get enough electricity to the battlefield. Wireless electrical transmitters will need to be developed to ensure an efficient transportation of power to the battlefield.
Finally, space will be weaponized. With satellite reconnaissance becoming more and more sophisticated, there will be a need to target enemy satellites to deprive them of information, the most important asset in war. Attack satellites, with the purpose of seeking out enemy satellites will be utilised, while anti satellite systems (ASAT) have already been developed and will provide support from the ground. Trump’s space force is very nearly a reality. All these changes in war will occur because of one innovation: precision-guided munitions.
While technology will forever be evolving, the foundation of warfare will remain unchanged. The warrior’s trade will remain one of bravery, sacrifice and pain, whether one is a Greek hoplite or a Marine in the American navy. Technology will change how men fight and die, but it does not lessen the horror and glory of battle, nor change the reality of death and suffering.
