THE WINNERS AND LOSERS
By Francesco Barrese
Super Tuesday has finally arrived, and the final few Democratic candidates have just experienced the full force of it. Results from the first four states to vote (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina) provided no clear indication as to an obvious nominee, making March 3rd all the more interesting. With Bernie Sanders leading the delegate count and Joe Biden not too far behind, both men were hoping that when 33.8% of the nationwide nomination votes took place, they would claim solid victories.[1] An unknown was the impact that billionaire Mike Bloomberg, making his first appearance on the ballot, would have after spending over $500 million on nationwide advertisements.[2]
With the results from California still coming in one thing is clear, it was a political resurrection for Joe Biden. Alongside Bernie Sanders, both men made significant progress solidifying themselves as the clear contenders for the nomination. Sadly for Elizabeth Warren and Mike Bloomberg, they failed to achieve the success necessary to challenge the frontrunners. The question remains as to where the candidates go from here, who has the ability to win the nomination, and if they stand a chance against Donald Trump. Here’s the current state of play:
THE TALL POPPY
The name on everyone’s lips: Bernie Sanders. Being the clear frontrunner after the first four states voted, he went into Super Tuesday hoping to maintain and possibly extend his lead. Championing a progressive “democratic socialist” agenda that condemns corporate dominance and political influence, he aspires to become the nominee after his failure to do so in 2016.
After surviving a heart attack scare in October 2019,[3] a challenge from an equally progressive Warren and an onslaught of media criticism, Sanders looked set to win big on March 3rd. Arguably, he underperformed. He commenced the night with an expected victory in his home state of Vermont before later claiming victory in Colorado and Utah, and looks set to win California. However, despite his emphatic grassroots support he was unable to surpass Biden’s popularity in ten of fourteen voting states.[4] Buoyed by a likely win in California, Sanders proclaimed to supporters in Vermont his “absolute confidence” in winning the nomination due to his campaign not representing “the same old kind of politics”.
However, Super Tuesday has hindered his self-proclaimed unrivalled capacity to garner a high turnout of an immense anti-Trump coalition come November. Turnout was high across all 14 states, but the voters favoured Joe Biden, especially in the country’s south. To make matters worse, he was unable to expand on his 2016 results, in certain instances actually achieving fewer votes. March 3rd also proved the effectiveness of the Stop Sanders campaign in impeding his path to the Presidency. It is no secret that the Democratic establishment is concerned by Sanders’ ambitious policy platform, citing the threat of his limited appeal to America’s moderate mainstream. Leading up to the vote, criticism from his fellow competitors on the debate stage,[5] and from pundits throughout the media heavily intensified.[6] With what seems to be a successful night for the moderate wing of the party, the strategy of depicting Sanders as an idealistic, unviable and harmful candidate is sure to be amplified going forward.
Another concern for the Bernie camp is his appeal to African American voters, foreshadowed by his relatively poor showing in South Carolina only days ago. The Super Tuesday results only confirmed that Sanders’ appeal to this key constituency continues to trail behind that of Joe Biden. Popular amongst younger voters, Latinos and the highly educated, Bernie will need to concentrate more effort on winning over African Americans in successive states. If he can bounce back from today’s results, he may just become the most unconventional Democratic Presidential nominee in recent history. That is, if the media and Democratic party don’t stop him first.
THE RESURRECTED
The largest name on the ballot and arguably the most experienced, Joe Biden was the long touted frontrunner for the greater part of 2019. Despite experiencing an alarming start in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada, the momentum gained from his South Carolina was crucial in carrying him through to March 3rd. His position was further reinforced by prominent moderate candidates suspending their campaigns, namely Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar, and endorsing Biden for the nomination. The former Vice President also received an endorsement from prominent Texas Democrat, Beto O’Rourke. The consolidation of the moderate vote behind Biden changed the dynamics of Super Tuesday less than 72 hours before the vote.
The impacts of this move were telling, with Biden winning a large portion of voters that made late vote choices. The former Delaware Senator seems to have won all but 4 of the 14 attainable states, including the coveted Texan vote. The impressive showing has promoted his goal of spearheading the anti-Bernie movement, and winning the nomination. With delegate counts yet to be finalised, March 3rd has the potential to propel Biden from a once failing candidate to the position of Democratic frontrunner. Additionally, the establishment favourite successfully survived a challenge from Mike Bloomberg, who sought to unseat Biden as the anti-Sanders moderate alternative.
Despite his victories, questions still surround the success of the Biden campaign going forward. Notably, Biden remains vulnerable to suggestions he fails to rally the support sufficient to defeat the President given his lack of support amongst energised Latino and youth voters. He also suffers from a gaffe tendency that could impede his political prospects with a Democratic base less forgiving of Trump-like spoonerisms, and against the President’s debate style that heavily relies on quick thinking insults.[7] If Biden can shake off the “Sleepy Joe” stigma, then he may just win the nomination, and maybe even the Presidency.
CASHED UP CONTROVERSY
Announcing his candidacy in November 2019, and appearing in only the last two televised debates, Mike Bloomberg made his first appearance on the ballot paper on March 3rd. The billionaire businessmen is by the far the most controversial Democratic candidate on the ticket, accused of seeking to buy the nomination. Prior to Super Tuesday, he was viciously condemned by his competitors for supporting racist policing practices and misogynistic complaints filed against him as a businessman.
Bloomberg entered the race hinging his political aspirations on the initial weakness of Biden’s campaign and the upsurge of Bernie Sanders’ popularity. His claims of being the only moderate capable of stopping Sanders and defeating Trump were quickly rendered unfeasible. The millions dedicated to targeted advertising ultimately proved unsuccessful, with the former mayor amassing just over 40 delegates of the available 1357. How long Bloomberg will remain in the race after Super Tuesday is unclear, but for those wondering if the Democratic nomination can be bought by a billionaire: the answer seems to be no.
THE RELENTLESS
The only comparable progressive to Sanders in the race, Warren approached March 3rd needing to win in her home state of Massachusetts. Prior to Super Tuesday, she had won 8 delegates and brought entertainment through her roasts of Mike Bloomberg during the debates.[8] In spite of her minor impact, she assured supporters that her campaign was built to last until the Convention and that she was confident for the big vote. Despite increasing her delegate count to over 50, she failed to make significant enough gains to challenge Biden and Sanders, even finishing third to them in Massachusetts.
The message from the Warren campaign is that she remains determined to provide an alternative choice for voters. Regardless, it is only a matter of time before she drops out, given the difficulty in polling above 15% in more than 4 states and Sanders’ continued dominance of the progressive vote. This may not be the last we will see of Warren, but the countdown has begun.[9]
So what now and where to next?
The Super Tuesday electorates have spoken, and the big winners of the night are Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders. For Mike Bloomberg and Elizabeth Warren, it’s back to the campaign trail in need of some soul searching if they have any chance of reinvigorating their campaigns. It’s still a long road to the White House, but the Democratic establishment and Trump Administration will be closely analysing the Super Tuesday results and responding with force as the nominee become increasingly clear.
[1] https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/01/super-tuesday-guide-us-elections
[2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-24/bloomberg-tops-half-a-billion-dollars-in-campaign-advertising
[3] https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/04/us/politics/bernie-sanders-hospital.html
[4] https://www.vox.com/2020/3/3/21156481/super-tuesday-live-results
[5] https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/feb/25/democratic-debate-south-carolina-bernie-sanders-mike-bloomberg-joe-biden
[6] https://newrepublic.com/article/156704/bernie-sanders-winning-war-cable-news
[7] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wH-y_w0O5Bw
[8] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-02-20/warren-attacks-bloomberg-during-democratic-debate-video
[9] https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/01/politics/elizabeth-warren-fundraising-february-super-tuesday-convention-plan/index.html
