The world was shocked when US President, Donald Trump, announced his hasty decision to withdraw US troops from northern Syria on October 6th. This follows a phone call with President Trump and Turkish-President Erdogan where Trump made the decision to step back and allow Turkey to move forward in its operations in northern-Syria despite fierce opposition from his own State Department, military and other allies. This is despite the US support of it’s main ally in the region, the Syrian Kurdish group (the YPG/SDF), which has maintained a strong link with the US throughout the 9-year Syrian war. This initial decision by Trump has undermined US efforts to dissuade Turkey from acting militarily, eroded US credibility as a strong ally and threatened regional security. Despite what actions have been taken, the damage has been done within days of a mere phone call.
TURKEY
Three days after the announcement of the US’ decision to withdraw from the region, Turkey began its offensive attack against the Kurdish controlled Northern Syrian land which is bordering Turkey. Turkey views elements of the Kurdish group as terrorists, linked to the Kurdish group the PKK, one that is has traditionally been at war with for the last three decades over Kurdish autonomy in Turkey. This has led to Turkey’s decision to try and drive the Kurds away from a “safe zone” reaching 30 kilometres into Syria that it will use to house approximately 2 million Syrian refugees currently living in Turkey. In merely 96 hours of this operation, hundreds of people were killed including Kurds, Turkish officials and civilians as Turkey continued it’s offensive to gain control of the Syrian region.
As of the 13th of October, Turkey has captured 109 square kilometres of territory within Northern Syria which includes 21 villages under the control of the Kurds. Turkey is not stopping there, as it continues to push deeper within the region. The UN has reported that up to 160,000 people have been displaced due to Turkey’s military push into Syria and it is reported that further fighting and Turkey’s offensive could result in the displacement of up to 300,000 more Syrian people in the provinces of Hassekeh and Raqqa according to the Red Cross. This is in addition to water shortages as several water stations and dams are at risk showing that the ongoing hostilities are having a devastating impact on the civilian population.
There has been an global outrage over Turkey’s decision with policy makers globally discussing, debating and deciding on appropriate measures to implement against Turkey due to its actions. There have serious concerns shown by Turkey’s allies including NATO allies that have called for restraint due to the risk of further destabilising the region.
THE KURDS
The YPG/ SDF sections of the Kurds have traditionally been allied with the United States in the nine-year war with Islamic State. They have proved instrumental in the fight against ISIS as they have freed over tens of thousands of square miles and people from the grips of ISIS whilst sustaining nearly 11,000 casualties. This is in comparison to six US service members and two civilian casualties that were killed by the anti-ISIS campaign.
As Turkey began to strike, the Kurds were forced to pull some of their fighters from guarding IS prisoners to send to the Syrian-Turkish border to “protect people” from the carnage that is beginning to ensue. As Turkey begins to come deeper inside Norther Syria, the Kurds have said that they will defend it’s territory at all costs and will protect their hard-won gains in the battled against ISIS. In recent developments, as of the 14th of October, the Syrian government has agreed to send its army to the northern border to halt Turkey’s offensive and protect the Kurds. This has been monumental as the Syrian government has not stepped foot in a traditionally abandoned area in the North since 2012. This deal represents a significant shift in alliances for the Kurds who lost long-term military protection from the US in the area with the withdrawal or “stab in the back”. Although the SDF have stated that there will be “painful compromises” little is known of the deal yet as stated by SDF chief Mazloum Abdi “if we have to chose between compromises and the genocide of our people, we will surely choose life for our people”.
THE UNITED STATES
Trump argued that he was fulfilling a campaign promise in withdrawing from the “endless war” in the Middle East. He argued that there is an “untenable situation” in Syria therefore the Pentagon was moving up to 1000 troops away from the North.
This is in the face of immense backlash internationally but more specifically within the United States by policy makers. Trump has been heavily criticised for this decision as effectively abandoning the US’ main ally in the fight against ISIS and undermining the regional stability that had been fought hard to maintain. Brett McFurk, the former US envoy to the anti-ISIS coalition heavily criticised Trump and his decision to withdraw as it “leaves our allies exposed when adversaries call his bluff or he confronts a hard phone call”. Former US ambassador to the United States, Nikki Haley stated that the Kurdish fighters were “instrumental in our successful fight against ISIS in Syria” so the US “must always have the back of our allies, if we expect them to have out back”. Even Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, an avid Trump supporter, accused him of “shamelessly abandoning” their Kurdish allies thus “ensuring the re-emergence of ISIS”.
Hours after the initial Turkish attacks, Trump contradicted himself in the face of the growing and resentful opposition he was facing specifically from Republicans in Congress. He labelled the attack a “bad idea” by Turkey and the United States “did not endorse this attack”. Although there was no outright support of the attack, Turkey had been receiving American surveillance information which helped in tracking the Kurdish position. Despite this, Trump committed to sending $50 million in stabilisation assistance to Syria to prevent and protect ethic and religious minorities and to advance human rights. Additionally, Trump stated on Twitter that “if Turkey does anything that I, in my great and unmatched wisdom, consider to be off limits, I will totally destroy and obliterate its economy”. This led to little change as Turkey said it would still continue in the face of threats over its Syrian plan despite Trump’s warning to limit the scope of their operations.
In a surprising turn of events amidst mounting pressure by US politicians, hours ago President Trump has announced that he will be issuing an executive order authorising sanctions against Turkish officials, halting the negotiation of a $100 billion trade deal with Turkey and boosting Turkey steel tariffs to 50 percent. He has also contradicted his earlier position by stating that the US troops coming out of Syria will redeploy and remain in the region to monitor the increasingly dangerous situation.
This is in response to the “dangerous and destructive path” Turkey has taken regarding the conflict which Trump says “is endangering civilians and threatening peace, security and stability in the region”. He stated that the US will take action regarding Turkey’s actions which are “precipitating a humanitarian crisis and setting conditions for possible war crimes”.
ISLAMIC STATE
Many worry that the situation will lead to the re-emergence of the Islamic State and undermine the efforts to quash their control in Syria. Kurdish forces kept IS detainees in makeshift prisons or camps. However, with the recent conflict, this has spilled over and officials of the Ain Issa camp have said that nearly 800 relatives of foreign IS members have escaped their camp. There are growing fears of repetition as the Kurds hold more than 12,000 suspected IS members in seven different prisons around Syria. IS recently claimed responsibility of a recent car bombing in Syria and has declared a new campaign in Syria. However, this needs to be monitored as it is unknown yet whether IS has the capacity to re-emerge or whether the conflict between two forces against IS will result in its inadvertent growth.
It is still early days in the conflict and the long-term effects of Trump’s decision is not clear as of yet. What is clear is that it took one week for President Trump to reshape the entire map of the Syrian war. This resulted in opportunities for Turkey, possibilities for the Syrian regime and the abandonment and betrayal for the Kurds. The nine-year war in Syria is beginning to take on a new chapter as the world watches, waits and prays as they witness the events that will unfold.
