The European Union, once the bright light of European peace and integration,has failed. European unity, an American construct is falling apart, and the so called period of “European Peace” ever since 1945 is an illusion shattered by the resurgence of Russia and political conflicts within the European Union.
The causes of the European Union’s failure stem from its origins. Europe is a small continent, inherently fragmented with many nation-states, cultures and histories. Following the European Civil War (1914-1945), where 100 million Europeans died from political causes (war, genocide, famine etc.), the American Marshall Plan’s economic aid to Europe envisioned a European free-trade zone with economic coordination. This was the foundation of the EU. However, while American aid was welcomed, the Europeans were dubious about America’s plans for European integration. Britain was appalled by the idea of being dominated by a united Europe led by Germany in France, a threat Britain had long handled by playing France and Germany against each other. The British immediately opted out of any plans for European integration; they simply could not accept domination by continental Europe. France was equally appalled. Having been invaded three times in the past hundred years by the Germans, the idea of helping Germany recover was abhorrent to the French. Nevertheless, the French understood that the Soviets were currently a bigger threat, and West Germany needed to be built up as a bulwark against communism.
The Americans saw Franco-German hostility as a problem that must be solved to ensure european economic recovery against the threat of communism. France did not like this, but as much as they hated the Germans, they had interest in safeguarding against communism. Instead of opting out of European integration like the British did, they attempted to lead the process of european integration in order to shape Europe in their own interests rather than be at the complete whim of American interests. French President Charles de Gaulle was the leader who ultimately understood this. But even he did not envision an equal United States of Europe, rather envisioning a loose European confederation serving the interests of the French state. This model would define an integrated Europe, not a union of equals but a Europe serving the interests of its leading powers. Simmering animosity between member states of the EU, such as between France and Germany, would only be hidden by the EU, and would not be fully dealt with. Here is the existential flaw of the European Union. Europe’s basic nature remained that of division and fragmentation. The period of peace between 1945 and 2008 wasn’t even a European achievement, but a peace forced on Europe by the Americans and (up until its fall in 1991) the Soviets.
The signing of the Treaty of Maastricht in February of 1992 (the founding of the EU) seemed to dispel all this. The dissolution of the Soviet Union did indeed bring a wave of optimism to Europe. Eastern Europe, freed from Soviet domination flocked to the EU. Europe experienced a period of economic prosperity and there certainly appeared the real possibility of a United States of Europe. But the states of Europe remained sovereign. The EU lacked unified defence or foreign policy, and there was only economic unity, spurred on by economic prosperity which couldn’t last forever. European defence was supposed to be the job of NATO, but NATO was inherently flawed as well, a fact that would only become apparent later. Yet, despite all this, the EU flourished.
2008 saw this all change. Russia went to war with Georgia, and the Lehman Brothers went bankrupt. These two events were completely unrelated, but have written the EU’s death sentence. The first event, the Russian invasion of Georgia ended Russia’s period of irrelevance since 1991, and shattered the illusion of European peace. The invasion of Georgia was Russia sending a message to Europe and America that it was back on the international arena as a regional power. It also had the side effect of undermining the EU and NATO. The EU had been built on the premise that it would take care of the European economy while NATO would take care of European defence. NATO had assumed that Russia was weak and unwilling to confront it, yet when Russia invaded an ally of NATO, they did nothing. Georgia showed that NATO had become an irrelevant organisation serving as an excuse for American interests, essentially a paper organisation. The Russo-Georgian war revealed the underlying impotence of NATO and revealed a new challenge to European integration.
The second event sent the EU into financial chaos and has undermined the European economic system. The failure of the Lehman Brothers sent the housing market into free fall and a tidal wave of defaults led to a worldwide financial crisis. Indeed, most states affected by the crash had faced a financial crash before, and as such had a road map in how to deal with it. The Europeans did not have this road map. The European Central Bank was young, and the EU had never faced a financial crisis of this scale before. Differing agendas between EU member states resulted in a slow decision making progress, and a coherent policy was impossible. The central partnership of the EU, the Franco-German relationship was exposed as no longer equal or unified. Germany had different interests to France, and both had different interests to the rest of the EU. However, the EU is about economics, and as Germany had (and still has) the strongest economy in Europe, Germany led the EU’s economic response to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), and implemented austerity measures. While these measures benefited Germany, they slowed down the European economy, and some of Europe’s governments found themselves unable to pay of their debts. A new crisis emerged, as these states’ banks had brought European debt. If countries such as Greece defaulted, the banks would fail and the European financial system would collapse.
Germany wanted these countries to impose extreme austerity measures to pay of their debts. Greece, Spain and other states threatening to default wanted the wealthier European states to cover their debts. A compromise between the two was reached but the damage had been done. Economic integration within Europe, while initially promising had reached its first crisis. Germany’s interests were not the interests of the Spanish, and vice versa. This crisis broke Europe’s unity. Mediterranean Europe, the hardest hit by the GFC and the austerity measures developed a deep distrust of Germany. Even France, a leader of the EU, has been hit hard by these measures (France wanted stimulus rather than austerity). It became clear that the European Union was not a union of equals, but a confederation dominated by Germany. The EU has divided into four, Germany-Austria, Northern Europe, Mediterranean Europe and Eastern Europe, all with different interests and agendas. The EU still existed, but not one state spoke for Europe’s whole.
The impacts on European unity by 2008 were reinforced by 2014. The crisis in the Ukraine and the continued resurgence of Russia continued to divide Europe. The EU response to the Ukrainian crisis was relatively muted, with only minor economic and diplomatic sanctions placed on Russia which have failed to deter Russian policy towards Ukraine. Germany and France, dependent on Russian exports of natural resources, failed to fully stand up to Russia, while Eastern Europe, threatened by Russia’s expansion westward is continually betrayed by the lack of proper action by both the EU and NATO. They may well be forced to go their own way if the Russia grows in threat.
All these crises just holds to show that the EU has not dealt with simmering problems that hid underneath the surface. At the time of writing this piece, centrist parties have lost their majority in the EU parliament, with the greens and the far right the biggest winners of the EU elections. Populism is sweeping Europe, with right wing anti-EU governments having been elected to Poland, Hungary and Italy. The election basically tells us that identity and nationalism is still a major force in Europe, a fact that undermines the very purpose of the EU. The European economy is stagnant, with unemployment and mass migration on the rise. In addition there is the continued chaos from Brexit, which has no end in sight. The EU is on the brink.
Simply put, Europe does not have a unified policy anymore. Although there was once an idea of a United States of Europe, this is no longer a possibility in the near future. The EU is a confederation serving the interests of Germany, while NATO might as well now be a useless bit of scrap paper. The European Union has failed, and with it, any hopes of a united Europe, at least in the near future.
