In recent years, Sino-Taiwanese relations have become strained, with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) increasing its calls for unification with the island state, while the political parties in the Republic of China (ROC), more commonly known as Taiwan, have been forming alliances for a declaration of independence and the admittance of Taiwan to the United Nations, not as the Republic of China but as an independent Taiwanese Republic. In response, China began engaging in military exercises in the South China Sea, while also beginning to politically pressure Taiwan to not become independent.
However, this begs the question, does the People’s Republic have the capacity to successfully invade and occupy Taiwan, even without American intervention? At a glance, it would appear so. The People’s Liberation Army is the third most powerful army in the world according to the Global Firepower Index, behind just the USA and Russia, while Taiwan is only ranked 24th. The PRC has a population of 1.4 billion and a GDP of $23.16 trillion, while Taiwan has a population of only 23.5 million and a GDP of $1.18 trillion – a huge disparity. Moreover, the Taiwanese military is spread out amongst its island groups, with 20% of its standing military stationed in the Matsu, Kinmen, Penghu, Dongsha and Taiping Island chains. As it stands, on paper the PRC maintains an overwhelming advantage over Taiwan.
The outbreak of war would see Taiwanese military installations (ports, air bases, army depots, communication nodes, air defence installations etc.) being bombarded by Chinese ballistic missiles (of which China had around 1300). Taiwan maintains capable anti-ballistic missile systems (the Patriot PAC-3 and the Sky Bow 3), however nowhere near the volume required to stop the Chinese missiles. Taiwan also utilises several large airbases, each boasting high capacity runways. However according to expert analysis, in the event of an outbreak of war, easily half of the Taiwanese Air Force infrastructure could be put out of commision. Taiwan also only possesses few SAM (Surface to Air Missile) batteries, and these would be gradually hunted down by Chinese SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses) aircraft. However, when it comes to precision ground attacks, China lacks multi role combat aircraft capable of such an attack.
It would take time for China to redeploy its Air Force. Only a few airbases on the mainland are in range of Taiwan, and it would take months, if not over a year for China to be able to utilise the full might of its air force. China would only have around 900 combat aircraft within operational range of Taiwan, and that number would only grow to around 1500 combat aircraft after a few weeks. Further, while the closer air bases would be around 160 km from Taiwan, the majority of combat aircraft would be operating from bases around 560 km from Taiwan, the very edge of operational range for the majority of Chinese combat aircraft. While air refueling may help slightly, China lacks enough aerial tankers to make a significant difference. The Taiwanese Air Force, while smaller than China’s at around 600 combat aircraft, is made up of very capable planes (such as the F-16V) and is fairly large for Taiwan’s size. If Taiwan uses its air force effectively, Chinese air losses could potentially be fairly high.
In terms of reconnaissance, Taiwan lacks special mission planes equipped with radar while China has clear superiority in satellite reconnaissance, maintaining 70 operational spy satellites.
Meanwhile, the island groups controlled by Taiwan would be cut off and placed under Chinese blockade. The Matsu and Kinmen islands being in range of chinese mainland artillery barrage would be the first to be invaded. Without support and cut off from supplies, these islands would quickly fall under Chinese control, and Taiwan would lose a substantial amount of their standing military. This is another area where China has an overwhelming advantage. China has 2,183,000 active personnel, while Taiwan only has 257,500. In terms of reservists, Taiwan has a slight advantage with 1,675,000 reservists compared to China’s 510,000 reservists, but China nevertheless outnumbers Taiwan in total military personnel by over 700,000 men.
However, this is where China’s main weakness comes in. China is only able to bring win a portion of their military to engage Taiwan. The longer China takes to build up its forces to invade Taiwan, the longer Taiwan has to build up its defences, and the more likely the US would intervene on the side of Taiwan. Time is against the Chinese. Within a few months, Taiwan would have fully mobilised its reservists and have turned the island into a citadel.
For China to conduct a successful invasion, they would have to gain control of the strait and neutralize the Taiwanese navy, which is a forgone conclusion. China outnumbers Taiwan immensely in terms of attack submarines, destroyers, frigates and smaller combat vessels. While it would take time for a China to assemble its fleet, and even more time to properly pin down the Taiwanese navy, the Chinese would most definitely have control of the seas, in spite of potential losses from Taiwanese coastal anti ship missile installations.
After neutralising the Taiwanese airforce and navy, China would begin preparations of an amphibious assault of Taiwan. Historically, military buildups took months to complete. The buildup to Operation Desert Storm (1990-1991) took over 5 months with 540,000 military personnel flown in from across the world. The Normandy landings during World War 2 took over 12 months of buildup and involved over 1.5 million military personnel. Therefore it would be reasonable to assume that Chinese preparation would take a similar amount of time – around 6-8 months.
The Chinese have a minimal amphibious assault fleet, with a limited amount of landing craft. If all of China’s landing craft were utilised in the invasion of a Taiwan, they would only be able to land 79,000 troops in the first wave. There would likely be heavy losses even before reaching the shore thanks to Taiwanese anti-ship defences. China would likely conduct an airborne assault on strategic locations as well. China can utilise up to 80,000 troops in airborne operations, but the number used would likely be much less, with the Chinese airborne transport planes only having a theoretical capacity of around 15000.
China would need to decide where to attack. Taiwan is small with a high population density, but has a long coastline (around 900 km of coastline). However much of the coastline is dominated by mudflats and cities, unsuitable for landings, while there are few beaches that are surrounded by mountains. The only suitable landing spots would be the beaches in the north near Taipei, or in the south near Kaohsiung.
On day 1 of the assault on Taiwan, the Taiwanese would enjoy easy numerical superiority, with around 1.5 million troops available compared to the 100,000 China could potentially land. China would only be able to bring in a further 400,000 before needing to switch to transporting supplies to the small beachhead. Airborne assaults would have the element of surprise, but unless they were able to gain control of an airfield, they would be easily cut off and destroyed within a few days.
Taiwanese tanks, while fairly mediocre (outdated M60A3s and M48s) would be superior to the light tanks China would be able to land, with around 1,855 tanks in use by Taiwan. Taiwan also enjoys plentiful artillery, with over 1,700 multiple launch rocket systems and howitzers, with around 300 mortars as well. The beachhead would be easily contained by Taiwanese forces.
Within a couple of weeks, China would have suffered extremely heavy losses, in the air and on the ground. Taiwanese superiority in numbers and firepower on the main island would be decisive, and the Chinese beachheads would be driven back into the sea due to Taiwanese counterattacks. With all of this in mind, the Chinese are incapable of conducting a successful invasion of Taiwan before US intervention. All they would be able to gain are a couple of minor island chains in the South China Sea.
It is clear that attempting an invasion of Taiwan would be sheer suicide for the Chinese. As I outlined in my article last year, China is all bark and no bite, and their threats towards Taiwan have no weight behind them, even without US intervention. Once again, it is clear that China is nothing but a Paper Tiger.
