Although Sudan didn’t experience the Arab Spring in 2011, the recent wave of demonstrations occurring in the country suggests that it could finally be their turn. These demonstrations have been occurring since 19 December 2018 and are caused by the rise in the price of bread. However, similar to the Arab Spring, these protests quickly turned political. In this case, it initiated a protest movement against Omar Al-Bashir, the indicted war criminal who has ruled the country for 29 years. Protests aren’t unprecedented in Sudan. However, the longevity of this set of protests, the apparent rifts within Al-Bashir’s own political party, and the unity between opposition groups against the ruling regime suggest that the situation in Sudan can potentially create a challenge to the rule of Al-Bashir. Looking to the Arab Spring as a legacy in the region further strengthens this possibility of a political change occurring. Yet, the other legacies that the Arab Spring carries may actually obstruct the prospect of tangible changes in Sudan.
It all began in Atbara, a city in River Nile State, after Al-Bashir decided to end fuel and wheat subsidies and devalue the Sudanese pound, following the recommendations of the International Monetary Fund. It triggered a ticking time bomb. People had been fighting for a better quality of life, as shown in previous demonstrations, for decades. Rising costs and other economic hardships, including inflation and limits on bank withdrawals, fuelled the recent string of protests. Previously, Al-Bashir blamed Sudan’s economic situation on the economic sanctions imposed by the United States in 1997 for “Khartoum’s support for terrorist groups.” But since the Trump Administration removed sanctions in 2017 against Sudan, Al-Bashir’s usual narrative could not be spun. At the time of the first protests, inflation in Sudan had risen to 72.94 percent, the second highest rate in the world after Venezuela, and ultimately crushed any remaining hope on the possibility of improved economic conditions.
However, taking inspiration from the Arab Spring, the people of Sudan have channelled this hardship into a push for “freedom, peace, and justice”, as chanted by the protesters. The protests began to spread across the country. While the Arab Spring was driven mainly by the youth, the protests in Sudan seem to have brought together the whole country. Alongside the youth, doctors, engineers, university professors, and political opposition groups have been spotted influencing the movement against Al-Bashir. Even diverse ethnic groups are finally united against the President. They all chant, “we are all Darfur,” in turn solidifying their continued efforts. Perhaps this is why the longevity, spread, and growth of the protests are unprecedented. Perhaps it is true that there is strength in numbers. Perhaps there is hope for change. Yet, at the same time, authoritarian regimes have taken some lessons from the Arab Spring on how to deal with protests that have the potential to create political change. The lesson seems to be that a strong use of force can effectively put out the fuel driving the protests. Security forces loyal to Al-Bashir have previously used force in response to protests in Sudan, and this time it isn’t any different. There have been reports of live ammunition and tear gas being used on protesters, arrests, media restrictions, and enacting night time curfews. However, despite the violent response, it doesn’t seem to be slowing down the movement. At this rate, judging from the initial successes of the Arab Spring, there is potential for some type of change to occur in Sudan. Yet it’s not clear what type of change this will actually entail.
In particular, although the Arab Spring was initially successful at challenging the authoritarian rule in the region, we mustn’t forget the political instability that accompanies the Arab Spring legacy. We can turn to the rubble on the ground left from the civil wars that unfolded in Libya and Yemen post-Arab Spring. We can turn to Egypt and their military overthrows post-Mubarak’s rule. It brings some sense as to why there is a lack of support for these Sudanese protesters. However, it doesn’t seem true to blame the instability solely on the Arab Spring. If we do, then we undermine the complexities and the underlying problems that were present in each country. So perhaps the protesters in Sudan aren’t truly doomed. But, the linkage between instability and the Arab Spring has already been made by the region and the world. It’s in the interest of the middle east region to keep Al-Bashir in control in order to avoid another instance of protests in one country inspiring movements in their own countries. Even Saudi Arabia and UAE, who have had previous disagreements with Sudan, seem to not want to see the fall of an authoritarian regime. There is a focus, regionally, on containing the movement in Sudan by providing Al-Bashir with the financial support he needs to weaken the overall number of demonstrators. It looks unlikely that the protests would completely stop, but this might stunt the spread and longevity of these demonstrations. At this rate, it’s also unlikely that the wave of protests in Sudan will spread across borders into the region and create an Arab Spring 2.0.
Similarly, the desire for political stability in the Middle East by world powers has influenced the lack of support for the protests in Sudan or the rule of Al-Bashir. There’s no doubt that a number of western countries may have deep reservations about Al-Bashir, but international responses have not gone further than a few statements that express some apprehensions on how the protests are being dealt. Perhaps they don’t want to jump in too quickly this time. Perhaps they’re unsure what action to take. Or perhaps they’re simply respecting the concept of sovereignty (for once). In reality, no one wants to make the same mistakes as last time. In particular, the instability that emerged post-Arab Spring also led to the increased migration or the so-called ‘EU Migration Crisis.’ Since then, world leaders, especially European countries, do not want more instability from the Horn of Africa and the North of Africa in order to mitigate migration to Europe. Given Sudan’s location, it is clear that there is a lack of interest to support the protests. The overall fear of repeating the somewhat chaotic political changes and transitions that are linked to the Arab uprising both regionally and internationally might actually hinder the ability of these protesters to move forward.
While the protests continue, factors that stem from the Arab Spring legacy are also working against the Sudanese protesters outside of their control. But even if the protests stop or slow down, the causes of the unrest cannot be bludgeoned away. A country with a struggling economy, low investment, high unemployment, corruption, and bad governance that pushes these problems aside will ultimately just run into the same problems again in the future. Either way, the situation in Sudan will be instructive for the future of protests and political change by creating its own lessons.
