With the recent testing of the Kinzhal hypersonic missile, the Zircon anti-ship missile and the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle, Russia has heralded the new face of warfare. New Precision Guided Munitions (PGM’s) which can travel at Mach 10 and above and hit anywhere in the world are the future of war, and they are now a reality.
But first we must consider Russian missiles. The Kh-47M2 Kinzhal (Russian for “Dagger”) is an air launched ballistic missile with a payload of 500 kilograms and is nuclear capable. With a range of 2,000 kilometres, the Kinzhal travels at Mach 10, is equipped with the INS guidance system and is capable of precision evasive manoeuvres at every stage of the flight. The 3M22 Zircon is a winged anti-ship hypersonic cruise missile with a lift-generation centre body. It is capable of speeds of around Mach 6. The Avangard (also known as Objekt 4202) can also deliver conventional and nuclear payloads and is claimed to travel at up to Mach 27, more than 33,000 kilometres per hour. There is no existing missile defence system that can intercept the Avangard. According to Russian President Putin, no one could threaten Russia now because it has such advanced weapons, and his claims are well justified.
Hypersonic missiles are perhaps the final evolution of what airpower aimed to achieve. The very moment man first went airborne in 1783, when two people took to the skies in the first hot-air balloon, there were immeasurable consequences to warfare. There was now the possibility of not only aerial reconnaissance, but also an aerial weapon which could drop explosives onto enemy forces beyond the range of guns and artillery. Advocates of airpower argued that it was so revolutionary that it would make all other weapons obsolete.
However, bombardment from the air was risky and inefficient. In order to deliver their ordinance, bombers had to fight their way through hundreds, if not thousands, of kilometres of enemy air defences before they could come close to their target. During World War 2, the United Kingdom alone lost over 11,000 bombers in the air campaign over Nazi Germany. Strategic and tactical bombers were large, lacked defences and were easy targets for fighters and anti-air defences. It was a huge cost in life and material.
Hypersonic missiles, on the other hand, are smaller, cannot be intercepted and can be deployed thousands of kilometres away from enemy air defences. More importantly, they are missiles and are unmanned, resulting in no cost to life. They are also relatively cheap to manufacture. While strategic bombers like the B-17 enabled air forces to strike at targets far away, modern bombers armed with hypersonic missiles can do so with near impunity and at very little risk to themselves.
Airpower was also limited by a lack of precision. It took hundreds of planes and thousands of bombs to even come close to destroying the intended target. This came to a head during the Vietnam War. The key strategy of the Americans was that airpower would be used so effectively that the North Vietnamese would have to make peace with the South and the US. Seven and a half million tons of explosives were dropped on Indochina, more than three times the amount dropped in the entirety of the Second World War and yet airpower failed to bring North Vietnam to the negotiating table. Thanh Hoa bridge, a key point in North Vietnamese infrastructure was bombed hundreds of times in between 1965 and 1972, and the bridge remained operational. Airpower failed to win the Vietnam War for America, despite promising to do so.
Despite coming late during the war, Thanh Hoa bridge was finally brought down in April 1972 by PGM’s dropped by F-4 Phantoms. PGM’s meant that 12 planes could destroy a bridge within one sortie when hundreds of sorties with un guided munitions failed. PGM’s allowed airpower to finally destroy a target effectively and efficiently. PGM’s were the next face of warfare.
PGM’s were perhaps the main reason why the First Gulf War was won in 100 hours. During Desert Storm, the coalition air forces destroyed the Iraqi ability to command their troops, to supply their troops and broke Iraqi morale. Their ability to destroy the enemy’s capacity to fight with minimal time and cost allowed the American-led coalition to defeat Iraq as swiftly as they did. However, PGM’s at the time were limited by range and capacity. They needed to be deployed from aircraft or missile ships close to the target location. They were also fairly slow. Not anymore.
Hypersonic missiles now fully grant airpower with the ability to destroy any target across the globe within an hour. Travelling at Mach 20, a hypersonic missile based on the east coast of America could hit and destroy a target in Atlantic Europe in under half an hour, and there is no defence against such speed. A massed swarm of precision hypersonic missiles has the definite capability of destroying a state’s infrastructure and fighting ability in a matter of minutes, with minimal civilian casualties. Further, since Hypersonics fly significantly lower than ballistics missiles, line of sight detection time is reduced. This means that states will have very little time, perhaps only minutes, to respond to a hypersonic attack, by which time they might not be able to do anything about it at all.
Admittedly, active guidance systems such as infra-red and radar tracking are currently useless at Mach 10 and faster due to frictional heating, meaning that a Hypersonic cannot hit a small moving target such as a tank. However, they can most certainly hit a carrier, and it won’t be a surprise if technological advancements will allow a hypersonic to be able to hit moving ground targets within the next few decades.
The Hypersonic missile has immense ramifications. Attack aircraft are obsolete – what is the point of risking a manned and expensive aircraft that could be shot down when you can use Hypersonic missiles? Aircraft carriers are now obsolete – what is the use of a multibillion-dollar floating city to offensively project power when a swarm of cheap Hypersonic missiles can not only destroy the carrier in seconds, but also project power anywhere in the world? The American Aegis Combat System, an integrated naval weapons defence system which costs around 1.8 billion dollars, is incapable of defending against such speed. Hypersonic missiles are, quite frankly, unstoppable.
Politically, the Hypersonic missile is already affecting international relations. The United States has suspended the Intermediate Range Nuclear Force Treaty (INF), and is threatening to leave, having accused Russia of violating the treaty due to their Hypersonic missile testings. On December 4th last year, President Trump gave Russia 60 days to ‘comply’ with the treaty. Tensions are continuing to increase, with the United States suspending compliance with the treaty last Saturday on February the 2nd, and are due to withdraw in six months, while the Russians are sure to follow. The Hypersonic missile is already unravelling late and post-Cold War Treaties, potentially being destabilising internationally.
This is a new era of war. Hypersonic missiles developed by Russia as well as other major military powers promise to user in a new arms race, enabling armies to attack previously untouchable targets. Their incredible speed compresses attack and defence time cycles, leaving political leaders with even fewer opportunities for negotiation, de-escalation or even a counterattack. Just as the launching of HMS Dreadnought in 1906 made all other navies obsolete and revolutionised naval warfare, the Hypersonic missile is going to revolutionise war and render obsolete the previous military forces of the globe.
