By Hamah Hosen –
On the 4th of November, the French archipelago of New Caledonia voted in a highly anticipated independence referendum. With an unprecedented voter turnout of 81%, 56.4% of New Caledonians voted to remain a part of France while 43.6% voted in favour of independence. However, the vote for no independence might not necessarily be a no in the near future. In particular, the Noumea Accord sets New Caledonia up for 2 additional independence referendums by 2022 since the vote for independence wasn’t achieved in 2018. Although the results of the referendum were unexpectedly tight, it can be expected that the debate on sovereignty will continue to exist in New Caledonia for the next couple of years. New Caledonia remains as a part of France, only for now.
In order to understand the referendum and its results, we need to transport ourselves back to the 1980s. Internationally, decolonisation processes were occurring in other territories. However, after 127 years of French rule, New Caledonia remained a French colony. As such, the issue of independence gained traction within the nation and brought along with it the deep ethnic tensions between the Indigenous Kanak communities and the newly Europeans and Polynesians. This tension stems from the Kanaks’ experiences with legalised segregation and discrimination, and by becoming a minority in their own country as a result of an increased European and Polynesian population. Consequently, New Caledonia has been characterised by escalated tensions, violent clashes, revolts between the opponents and supporters of independence, and a hostage crisis that led to 12 deaths. The calls for independence, however, were met in the 1987 independence referendum. However, rather than easing this unrest, it led to further bloodshed and prolonged the debate. This was evident in the referendum being strongly boycotted by the minority Indigenous Kanaks and resulted in only a 59% voter turnout. Eventually, the Noumea Accord was signed in 1988 in order to end this unrest and guarantee some political power to New Caledonians until the territory decided on the issue of independence in a referendum to be held by 2018.
This brings us to the situation today. After 165 years of French colonisation and 30 years since the signing of the Noumea Accords, the vote for independence occurred once again. Undoubtedly the 2018 referendum ignited deep-rooted tensions and sentiments, however, unlike the 1987 referendum, it was met with less bloodshed and a more constructive and peaceful campaigning from both sides. This was due to the presence of UN observers and the limited franchise under the Noumea Accords. This curbed the possibility of recent European settlers stacking the odds against the minority Indigenous Kanaks and as such, contributed to the high voter turn-out. However, it wasn’t long until division and boycotts began to emerge in the lead up to the vote. There were also fears of a three-week-long blockade over nickel mining, vital to economic stability, by some young Kanaks due to their ineligibility to vote in the referendum. Additionally, mainstream independence and loyalist parties were touring their constituencies and travelling overseas in an attempt to explain their position. Post-referendum, the people of New Caledonia took to the streets and acted. In particular, there were reports of cars being set on fire, road blockages and stones being thrown. It is unsurprising that these were the reactions to an independence referendum given that the Noumea Accords didn’t solve the ethnic tensions that hindered the previous independence referendum. Rather, the Accords simply postponed the vote while simultaneously prolonging the tensions.
Nevertheless, the numerical victory among loyalists are clear given the results of the referendum. However, we should not be too quick to judge that the pro-independents are at a clear loss. The November 4th ballot and the relatively close result can be marked as a victory for democracy and legitimacy, but it also can open up a new phase of dialogue on the issue. In particular, previous polls predicted a much more decisive victory (approximately 70%). The sizeable independence vote has led to a blow among loyalists for the future but has given pro-independence supporters the momentum they need to carry on in the next referendum. It is clear that both sides will continue to debate but will need to sharpen their dialogues. This will undoubtedly establish more discussion that is needed to engage voters leading up to the next referendum which in turn will also ensure stability in the upcoming May 2019 provincial elections.
The situation is delicate. The referendum has exposed the deep-rooted ethnic and social fault lines in New Caledonia. As such, it is important that in the next couple years France impartially administers the agreements of the Noumea Accords while simultaneously respecting the positions of loyalists and pro-independents. Otherwise, the next referendums would begin to resemble the political and social environment during the 1980s. Despite the ‘no vote,’ the outcome of this referendum is not the end. Given the historical significance, these tensions will unsurprisingly continue whether or not New Caledonia remains a part of France. But for now, New Caledonia is characterised by tense ethnic relations while still remaining a part of France.
