Viewers around the world held their collective breath on July 7 as Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed disembarked his plane in the Eritrean capital of Asmara. This was, after all, the first time an Ethiopian leader had set foot in Eritrea since Africa’s second most populous nation refused to accept an international ruling on a blood-riddled border dispute in 2002. The newly minted leader eagerly descended the steps of his Q400 Bombardier to be welcomed with an embrace from Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki. This moment – described by some as Africa’s fall of the Berlin Wall – capped what has been a remarkable turn of events since the Prime Minister was installed in April amid a wave of protest and revolt in Addis Ababa. The sudden shift in relations between the two Horn of Africa neighbours has been characterised by a warmth that is rare in today’s typically abrasive international sphere. How long the honeymoon will last is indeterminable but, for now, the formal end of this 20-year stalemate marks a significant swing in a region that is crucial to global trade routes.
Context
The Ethiopian reversal is the culmination of two decades of political stonewalling by both nations. Eritrea, a country that has never held elections, has long been mired in a state of instability since declaring independence from Ethiopia following a 1993 referendum. Five years of relative peace was undone when, in 1998, both nations claimed the border town of Badme, a village of 1,500 residents which would otherwise be but a blip on the geopolitical map were it not for the dogged attitudes of both nations. The neighbours agreed to sign the Algiers Agreement in 2000 to refer the dispute to a Hague commission but, after the commission ruled that Badme was within the Eritrean boundary, Ethiopia refused to accept the ruling and withdraw troops from the border. Two decades of sporadic violence ensued.
‘Abiymania’
Enter Prime Minister Abiy, who has sought to fundamentally reform the nation’s economic and political direction since becoming leader in April. The new leader has been swept into office on the back of what some have described a personality cult and a ‘Bono-esque’ message of peace. Abiy’s announcement in June that he would be willing to give up Badme without any stifling preconditions made credible the suggestions that he is a contender for the next Nobel Peace Prize. With what can only be described as rapid pace, the Prime Minister backed up his words with action by reaching out to President Afwerki as both leaders released a statement declaring a ‘new era of peace and friendship’ had been opened.
The Prime Minister has been an international revelation in an otherwise vexed region. In under five months, Mr Abiy has capitalized on the political fervour surrounding him by announcing a raft of measures aimed at capturing the imagination of Ethiopians, 70 per cent of whom are under 30. Alongside his work with Eritrea, he has released a host of domestic political prisoners, lifted government monopolies on key industries such as telecommunications and energy, and sought to rid state security forces of generals loyal to the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, the small ethnic minority in whose hands power was concentrated until Mr Abiy’s rise to power.
Immediate Effects
The direct implications of peace between the neighbours are promising. Airlines have resumed flights between the capitals. Family members that have not seen each other in 16 years have been reunited. The United Nations Security Council is also seriously considering lifting sanctions on Eritrea which were implemented in 2009 amid its alleged harbouring of Al-Shabaab extremists.
Central to these developments for both nations is the access that Ethiopia will gain to Eritrea’s ports. Eritrea will not only gain port revenue but also the potential of potash reserves from the Danakil Depression, an emerging province which extends across the border of both countries. To service the project it is considering building a port at the Bay of Anfile – something its Director-General of Energy described as a ‘no-brainer.’ The proposed port would be located on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, an economic focal point for global trade through which an estimated 5 million barrels of crude pass each day. Such a facility would reflect the recent influx of port developments in the area including in Somalia, Sudan and the Chinese-funded venture in Djibouti. This move may, ultimately, allow Ethiopia to elevate itself to a regional superpower via its now accommodating neighbour.
Investment Overdrive
Reconciliation has spurred investors from around the globe to rethink relations with both countries. The United Arab Emirates, for instance, has been hailed as a key driver of the peace process and stands to gain much from Ethio – Eritrean rapprochement. Merely weeks after Prime Minister Abiy and President Afwerki declared peace, both leaders travelled to Abu Dhabi for discussions with Sheikh Khalifa. Shortly after, the UAE announced a $3 billion support package for Ethiopia including a pledge of $2 billion in investments. Abu Dhabi has enjoyed unchallenged influence in Eritrea for at least a decade and has been building a military base in Assab since 2015. Further, China’s Sichuan Road & Bridge Mining Investment Development Corporation recently bought 60 per cent of Eritrea’s Asmara Mining Share Co. The West had been slow to react until Germany’s Minister of International Cooperation, Gerd Müller, pledged a €100 million grant to support Ethiopia’s job training program.
Looking Ahead
Those under the impression that Mr Abiy and Mr Afwerki’s task is complete will be sobered in knowing that Ethiopia is yet to completely withdraw its troops from the border at Badme. Nevertheless, the achievement secured by the two nations is remarkable in its significance and should not be understated: a peace declaration that was unthinkable at the beginning of 2018 has already seen a host of social, economic and political benefits begin to pour in. It is clear that Mr Abiy’s stardom has propelled these changes, and his profile will continue to rise both domestically and internationally in the foreseeable future. What is unclear, is whether he can harness his support to ensure a lasting impact on two nations whose intertwined history is checkered at best.
